Commodities rolling over (but likely not yet) to the downside
Building on The_Unwind 's post about commodities.
I agree commodities are on the way down to new lows (and multi-year bottom). It is a deflationary cycle, interest rates is the most obvious proof that we live in a deflationary environment. Having extremely low or negative interest rates simply means that fewer and fewer people/businesses take credit (the price of money deflates) or the supply of money exceeds the demand for it. Either way, it means trouble for commodities that thrive in the inflationary environment and for stocks eventually.
Having agreed to the big picture my Elliottwave count suggests that before we go onto a death spiral with oil testing 25-20 and stock market crush at least 30% we might have one final rip upwards which will unsettle bears and make everyone talk bullish nonsense again. Elliottwave.com says 'waves E are attended by psychology as emotional as that of a fifth wave'.
I might be wrong. I base my judgement on the gut feeling that the structure does not look complete. Those 3-3-3 moves come in 5-waves pack (ABCDE or WYXZ) at least. Final wave E may not travel all the way up as indicated on the chart. It sometimes ends below the previous high (wave C).
As for fundamentals.. well it might be anything. The Fed may suddenly drop comments that they will do an emergency, earlier cut. Or they cut more than expected. Or Trump tweets something about alignment with the Fed to act aggressively or any similar short-term hype. The irony is that the news will be deflationary by nature (increasing money supply when nobody needs it) but people will talk about the money flood which is supposed to raise prices and the powerfull Fed saving the economy.
I agree commodities are on the way down to new lows (and multi-year bottom). It is a deflationary cycle, interest rates is the most obvious proof that we live in a deflationary environment. Having extremely low or negative interest rates simply means that fewer and fewer people/businesses take credit (the price of money deflates) or the supply of money exceeds the demand for it. Either way, it means trouble for commodities that thrive in the inflationary environment and for stocks eventually.
Having agreed to the big picture my Elliottwave count suggests that before we go onto a death spiral with oil testing 25-20 and stock market crush at least 30% we might have one final rip upwards which will unsettle bears and make everyone talk bullish nonsense again. Elliottwave.com says 'waves E are attended by psychology as emotional as that of a fifth wave'.
I might be wrong. I base my judgement on the gut feeling that the structure does not look complete. Those 3-3-3 moves come in 5-waves pack (ABCDE or WYXZ) at least. Final wave E may not travel all the way up as indicated on the chart. It sometimes ends below the previous high (wave C).
As for fundamentals.. well it might be anything. The Fed may suddenly drop comments that they will do an emergency, earlier cut. Or they cut more than expected. Or Trump tweets something about alignment with the Fed to act aggressively or any similar short-term hype. The irony is that the news will be deflationary by nature (increasing money supply when nobody needs it) but people will talk about the money flood which is supposed to raise prices and the powerfull Fed saving the economy.
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🗃️ Extensive analysis archives
📏 Chartopedia, with examples of applying ElliottWave to real world charts
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