Long

Tron about to M O O N

Updated

Hello everyone. It's been a while ;)
Welcome to the analysis of my favorite holding, Tron.

We've been in a slump ever since May 26th - RIGHT before the Main Net release.

We are forming a Bullish descending wedge. The structure is becoming very tight and a breakout up or down is imminent.
Considering this is a bullish formation, I believe we're headed UP UP UP.

The RSI is in oversold territory but recently formed bullish divergence about a week ago.
This is an indicator of potential reversal.

The MACD also shows bullish divergence.
Although it is currently curling down, data suggests this will not last long.

Buy-in targets:
525
500
475

Profit targets:
578
726
846
1038

S/L
460

This is not financial advice.
Good luck :)

Note

Hidden bearish divergence spotted.
First support is around 505.

Note

Strong bullish divergence in Tron on the 1h.

Note

CMF indicator shows a LOT of money being pumped into Tron. The lows on the indicator have been gradually getting higher. This would indicate possible accumulation phases.

Candles are showing the same signs- very long tails and very long heads. This indicates a LOT of trading is taking progress.

TTM Squeeze indicator shows relief is possibly in sight. Until the most recent candles, TTM Squeeze indicator fired many times in a row.

We are now in a bull flag formation. Chances are high that this will continue down. However, all data is suggesting that a bottom is near. I'm starting to believe we may not close below 500, however I would not be surprised at all to see a massive wick for capitulation down to around 480.
Past 480 and we're looking at 420 or worse.

Note

A clean break of 555 on the hourly and we could be seeing a rally.

Note

We only broke 555 temporarily. We need a strong close now above 555 on the hourly, and 562 on the 4h. So long as BTC doesn't take a huge dump, we COULD see a rally within the next few days. However, with bloody monday staring us down we may see the targets listed above in my analysis.

50-50 right now on which direction Tron goes.
I still think we're heading down though.

Note

This price action today has been N U T T Y.
I was legit telling a buddy of mine earlier this morning if we closed a certain candle as a hammer, we were gonna rally. We reached a low of 509, and the second we did it retraced HARD. Closed as a massive bullish hammer as pointed out in the following graph.

Mind you, there is still 3 hours to go for the daily and we absolutely must hold the current level of momentum. We ventured outside of the descending wedge which was a bit scary for a second there. I do think so long as BTC doesn't go into the toilet (Which for some strange reason, even though BTC is developing a bear flag, I highly doubt we will fall much lower) we will rally in TRX.

Today, Binance re-enabled withdrawals, the migration and token swap having now been completed.

I honestly see no reason for a stupidly oversold alt to continue farther down.
Let's see what happens on the daily yeah?

Note

Whoops. That was the 4h. xD
THIS is the 1h showing a massive bullish hammer.

Also something noteworthy.
12H bullish engulfing candle.

Note

A look at the daily shows something extraordinary.

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For anyone wanting a bigger picture view, here you are. My trend lines were set for the 12H candles but are now shifted to the daily which makes more sense.

Note

6HR Strong Bullish Divergence

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Earlier today, Tron hit a low of 510 sats. This marks the 2nd time we have gone down to that support area. As soon as we hit it we retraced. Price is now currently meeting short term resistance at 516.

Volume has been rising fairly dramatically. Yesterday on Coinmarketcap Tron had a $173,000,000 volume. 40M more than the previous daily close. That is roughly a 23% increase.

Notice the volume bars.

The 1H is still showing bullish divergence in the RSI.

The 4H also shows bullish divergence.
Also, something very interesting has caught my eye.
It's probably nothing. BUT. What if it isn't?
POSSIBLE inverted H&S on the 4h.

I would strongly advise to put a S/L near or at 510 sats. Though there is very strong bullish divergence in Tron, the MACD is looking to cross bearish on the daily. We could very easily continue down to 492, or worse, 420.

Note

Correction. 509 is our lowest sat support for now. I'd recommend anywhere between a 0.5-1.5% S/L below it.

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CORRECTION: MACD is actually potentially crossing bullish on the daily****

There is a good chance we will see a decent uptrend, starting within the next day or two. Price could potentially drop to form an inverted head and shoulders assuming uptrend takes place.

Volatility is low.
Price has been stable in the 315 region. Currently testing 530 resistance.
Volume is increasing.
SELL volume is being absorbed hardcore.
RSI yesterday was at the absolute lowest value it has been since TRX was created, back in November.

Fib time zone says today or tomorrow something will give.
Let's see what happens in the next few days!

Note

Keep in mind, this is only my opinion. There is about a 50-50 chance I'm wrong on this, but I think Tron has pretty much bottomed out.

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Final target before bearish breakdown IMO is 495.

Note

We have a confirmed 6h breakout of the descending wedge. Volume seems to be rising, which shows this could be a legit breakout. However, when compared to the March/April breakout, the volume is peanuts. SO, this trade is still technically risky as it could just be a relief rally.

The daily shows a massively engulfing candle for now, but there is still 5.5 hours to go on that.

The inverse head and shoulders is working out nicely so far. Resistance for the neckline and subsequent drop should be 555 sats. I believe if we confirm this pattern, there will be a huge influx of volume.

Let's see how it all plays out.
BTW. If you're in profit I'd recommend a stop loss of 0.5-1.5% below current levels to stay that way.

Note

Volume seems to be slowly increasing after the majority of it was flat and uneventful. From what I have read, this points to a possible bottoming out phase. Traders test the area for strength/weakness, which would explain the breakout.

Right now we are correcting from the breakout high of 547 sats, to a current trading price of 533.

Placing a fib timezone shows that this current 6H, 12H, and daily candle could have some action. We could continue up to the neckline, we could drop back into the descending wedge, etc. Either way, the next 23 hours should show some decent volatility. Especially now that we closed an entire daily candle out of the wedge.

Let's see how it plays out.

Note

Bounced really nicely off the 618 fib today, which COULD indicate the first impulse of 5 waves. Right now we are sitting at 550-552, only 3 sats away from the neckline.

Curious to see how this plays out. So long as Bitcoin stays sideways or goes up, I think we are seeing the reversal in Tron play out. A lot of other traders are convinced Tron isn't done going down yet, but we'll see.
All indicators are showing positive signs on all time frames.

Note

This may not be great news.

Let's see if we can hold where we are. If not, I'm exiting 1/4 of my position at around 545.

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Disaster averted on the double top it looks like.
Inv. head and shoulders has been voided as candles have closed on all time frames above 555.

HOWEVER.
Be aware that at some point soon I'm suspecting a fairly decent correction, Tron is in a rising wedge, which is technically bearish. Have stops set and be ready to buy back in lower.

Note

531! We went down *hard*.

Anddddddd now we're testing crucial resistance.

If we confirm past 562, the next target is around 600.
GO TRON :D

Note

Testing MASSIVE resistance at 575 now. Which way will she go...

Note

Tron *could* be forming wave 3 as we speak. It's a little too early to tell yet but the latest hourly candle closed right at the .618 again.
IF Tron is in the middle of a 5-wave series, we could potentially be staring at the 600's by the end of the day. I'm an Elliott noob so I'm not sure if I'm even right on this, but if that giant dildo earlier was wave 1, we're in for a hell of a ride.

Note

That moment when you're not paying attention for literally just 30 minutes today and your main holding just straight dumps on you? Yeah, that was me.

REAAAAAALLY hoping 509 holds. Cause if it doesn't we are looking at a potential 440 bottom.

Note

Hidden Bearish Divergence.
Didn't see it.

... :\

Trade closed: stop reached

S/L hit at 505.
Will create a new thread within the next day or two.
Looks like the selling pressure isn't going to be letting off any time soon :\

440-420 is beginning to look like our best hope right now.

deactivatedaccount123

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