TRON!! WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR US!! WHY ARE WE DROPPING!?!
Updated
Hello guys and welcome back to another TRX/ETH update on the 1-day candles. After my last one TA, it seems like some people want to know more and I think now is the time to re-look and re-adjust our view of the long-term market. I promise this time to be less over the top and to try and focus on the plethora of things I've indicated on my chart (I've indicated various points with Letters or Numbers which I will come back to in my analysis.
To begin, we still have a strong resistance at .00012xxx TRX/ETH and a breakout above this would likely result in a huge pump, however, I don't expect this to happen until sometime around May 31 (with the release of the MainNet). Secondly, we have a strong rising support at the .0005xxx level, where the Exchange Rate mostly played around for a long while and if we ever drop under that again it would likely be very bad news.
Now that we got that out of the way, its time to talk about the rest of what I've drawn. And before I do that I am fully disclosing that I am a Bull on TRX/ETH but that I do not like to miss out on flips so I always analyze both the good and the bad. This will be, for the most part, an unbiased analysis.
To start with the good news (for longs). We are nearing a switch from the previous Bearish Momentum and are looking to have a rather Bullish turnover when looking at the Stoch RSI at Point B. We may also bounce off of the rising supporting RSI trendline which I have drawn out and indicated. This is very interesting because this line actually retraces back a couple months all the way back to November. What this means is that we have a good chance of bouncing off of it and having a nice run-up but also that we will eventually reach overbought conditions and drop below this trend-line. I will go more into this later on when I talk about general analysis but for now, I'm sticking to just analyzing what the indicators tell us. Next in line to talk about is what looks like a bull flag. In Japanese Candlestick Charting, there is something called the Rising Three Method which comprises of a large green bar (the one with the arrow pointing at it) followed by small-bodied sells or buys that trade within the prior green bars range (the Japanese say it should be three but Steve Nison (the person who introduced Candlestick Charting to the West) states that it can be greater than three). The flag also follows Western Indicators which state that a bull flag comprises of a strong volume buy followed by low volume playing within a range which is exactly what we see with our current flag. And lastly, while I have not included in the chart to save our eyes, the support line is also located at the .382 Fibonacci Retracement which could give us a good bounce if we bounce.
Now that we've gone over some of the bullish indicators it's time to look and the bearish signs, of which there are not too many. The first one I noticed right off the bat is what looks like a Bearish MA cross from the 12-day close under the 25-day close indicated at Point A. This is not the worst thing in the world but it can invalidate the bull flag if the bull flag confirms. The second thing that is Bearish fundamentally is the fact that ETHUSD and BTCUSD are having their runs right now and while I won't analyze those coins right now I will say that if those prices rise our exchange rate can take a beating. The reasoning is quite simple, people want to flip into ETHUSD and take profits there while TRX decreases and then they'll come right back in. Thirdly, I don't know how strong our short-term support at .0007xxx is since we haven't been able to really confirm it, other than it lies near the .382 Fibonacci Retracement.
Since I have no more room to write I will continue my post with an update. ALSO. PLEASE LIKE AND FOLLOW IF YOU WANT MORE. I KNOW YOU'RE READING (I have the most views on Tron updates)!!!!
To begin, we still have a strong resistance at .00012xxx TRX/ETH and a breakout above this would likely result in a huge pump, however, I don't expect this to happen until sometime around May 31 (with the release of the MainNet). Secondly, we have a strong rising support at the .0005xxx level, where the Exchange Rate mostly played around for a long while and if we ever drop under that again it would likely be very bad news.
Now that we got that out of the way, its time to talk about the rest of what I've drawn. And before I do that I am fully disclosing that I am a Bull on TRX/ETH but that I do not like to miss out on flips so I always analyze both the good and the bad. This will be, for the most part, an unbiased analysis.
To start with the good news (for longs). We are nearing a switch from the previous Bearish Momentum and are looking to have a rather Bullish turnover when looking at the Stoch RSI at Point B. We may also bounce off of the rising supporting RSI trendline which I have drawn out and indicated. This is very interesting because this line actually retraces back a couple months all the way back to November. What this means is that we have a good chance of bouncing off of it and having a nice run-up but also that we will eventually reach overbought conditions and drop below this trend-line. I will go more into this later on when I talk about general analysis but for now, I'm sticking to just analyzing what the indicators tell us. Next in line to talk about is what looks like a bull flag. In Japanese Candlestick Charting, there is something called the Rising Three Method which comprises of a large green bar (the one with the arrow pointing at it) followed by small-bodied sells or buys that trade within the prior green bars range (the Japanese say it should be three but Steve Nison (the person who introduced Candlestick Charting to the West) states that it can be greater than three). The flag also follows Western Indicators which state that a bull flag comprises of a strong volume buy followed by low volume playing within a range which is exactly what we see with our current flag. And lastly, while I have not included in the chart to save our eyes, the support line is also located at the .382 Fibonacci Retracement which could give us a good bounce if we bounce.
Now that we've gone over some of the bullish indicators it's time to look and the bearish signs, of which there are not too many. The first one I noticed right off the bat is what looks like a Bearish MA cross from the 12-day close under the 25-day close indicated at Point A. This is not the worst thing in the world but it can invalidate the bull flag if the bull flag confirms. The second thing that is Bearish fundamentally is the fact that ETHUSD and BTCUSD are having their runs right now and while I won't analyze those coins right now I will say that if those prices rise our exchange rate can take a beating. The reasoning is quite simple, people want to flip into ETHUSD and take profits there while TRX decreases and then they'll come right back in. Thirdly, I don't know how strong our short-term support at .0007xxx is since we haven't been able to really confirm it, other than it lies near the .382 Fibonacci Retracement.
Since I have no more room to write I will continue my post with an update. ALSO. PLEASE LIKE AND FOLLOW IF YOU WANT MORE. I KNOW YOU'RE READING (I have the most views on Tron updates)!!!!
Note
Now for my own personal opinion of what may happen. First off I do like that we are nearing a Bullish Crossover on the Stoch RSI which could indicate future buying pressure coupled with what looks like a very close to confirming bull flag. By combining these two things it's possible we see .001xxxx highs again or higher. However, with good comes bad. What scares me, even in this bullish scenario, is that the RSI is rising slowly and that it will eventually near overbought conditions. However, for the short term in the long term (its possible) we can still rise healthily without worrying too much about the RSI since its playing at 50 right now which is practically the middle. In addition, the MA crossover (if it happens) will be happening at a time where the price can continue to drop with the rising prices of ETH and the consequent lowering of our Exchange Rates. For a price dropping scenario, what could happen is that with our naturally lowering exchange rates the MA crossover occurs coupled with a Bull Flag failure. What may happen in this scenario is a drop down to .0007xxx Point 1 and if that fails to hold a bigger drop off to .0006xxx Point 2. This is almost a 50% drop and while it's not the most likely future it is a possible one. I would expect that if we drop that much there will also be jumps back up after these levels. A drop to Point 3 would be VERY VERY BAD but is also EXTREMELY unlikely.
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Comment below if you have any questions!!
Note
450 views and no upvotes. If you didn't like the way I structured it or what I'm saying, comment below. I love feedback and can improve for next time. Or upvote if you just haven't, it means a lot. Thank You!Note
Coming back to update that over the weekend we developed a spinning top candle (the first green after all the reds) right at our support line. A spinning top candle indicates that there could be a change in direction, whether it be a reversal or that we could go sideways. The only problem I see is it's happening on low volume and higher volume would make the pattern much stronger, but nevertheless, it is a pattern which is a good pattern. In addition, the MACD seems to be churning upwards now which is a good sign coupled with the RSI literally going inside the line I drew which it should bounce off of soon and which it seems like it is currently in the process of doing. This also makes the STOCH RSI more positive now which is also a good sign for us as there could be more buying pressure.At the time of writing this, the price was .000082xxx.
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