Long

Potential Bull Market Continuation (Elliott Wave)

Updated

After reassessing the wave structure on TRX with Glenn Neely, particularly the structure which began at the high in 2021 up until now, it seems to indicate that we are in a complex correction which began with a triangle and is now ending with a diametric.

If this is correct, TRX should be beginning the next phase of the bull market now. This would mean that we see a move up to at a minimum over $1, and on the higher end could go over $10. This should happen over the next year.

To confirm this assessment, we should see a very strong move up this quarter, ideally about as strong as the red box that is drawn on the chart. Regardless of if we get a huge bull market here or not, it does seem like we should see some modest upside at the least. It's always much easier to see a top or bottom forming in real-time than it is to try to accurately predict the exact price any asset will be at some point in the future, and right now it seems like we have formed a bottom.

With inflation beginning to tick up again, this could be the rising sea that lifts all boats. Combine that with a steady and increasing burn rate on TRX and we could see some very high prices for TRX in the future.

Note

Symmetricals typically exhibit a lot of price similarity between same-direction waves, like what we have here on the weekly chart. Since it looks like wave-h is coming to a conclusion we will probably get one more wave down to under 8 cents. However, since there is already enough price similarity in this symetricall wave-i may not necessarily be similar to the other waves in price, so there could be some variability in where the final low of wave-i actually is. Either way, we should see a large pull back here.

Note

While it does look like TRX needs a wave-i as shown on the weekly count, it is also very possible that wave-i has already begun with the drop in October and has an extreme skew to the upside because of the long-term bullishness. Since wave's a, c, e, and g are all price-similar, it is not necessary for wave-i to also be price-similar and most like it will not be similar.

Given the fact that wave-c on the daily has so far been weaker than wave-a it is very likely that this drop is mostly finished. If we were going to get a bigger drop here, then this drop probably would have started off much stronger. Since that hasn't happened, I assume wave-c (pricewise) is almost finished and we are going to keep pushing up from here.

If we do end up seeing a drop that is stronger than wave-a on the daily, we will have to move the conclusion of wave-H to the high and begin wave-I on the larger drop. Since that has not happened, for now we will assume wave-H has already ended and wave-I is skewing upward strongly, which makes sense due to the strength of the long-term count.

Note

TRX seems to have gotten a similar blow-off wave like what we saw at the top of wave-d and wave-f. This means there's a good chance we have just now finished wave-h and are beginning wave-i. If this is correct and we do not make any new highs from here, then wave-i could go as low as 8.4 cents and should end by early December.

This is also reinforced by the fact that wave-h is now equal to wave-d in time and price, and symmetricals typically exhibit a lot of price similarity in same-direction waves. It also sets up an interesting pattern where every-other same-direction bullish wave was equal in time and price (ie. b & f are similar, d & h are similar) which sets up an interesting form of alternation.

Note

Now that we have had the strongest drop since wave-h began, we can be confident wave-h is finished and wave-i has begun. Since wave-a is technically longer than the rest of the same-direction waves in the symmetrical, it is still possible for wave-i to be the same size as c, e, and g.

This means wave-i should finish after it goes slightly under 8.4 cents. Time is less predictable but could take anywhere from 1-3 weeks (or longer). However, since sentiment was quite high on this run we could see quite a few long liquidations happen on this drop, so I am slightly leaning more towards a quick 1 week drop. Either way the ideal buying price is under 8.4 cents, whenever that occurs.

Note

The minimum target for wave-i was around 61.8% of wave-g, since wave-i got very close to this minimum target it is possible that wave-i has already bottomed and we are about to see the end of the 2 year bear market. At this point it's probably best to be biased to the upside.

Note

TRX Could finally break out now. Considering that this is potentially the end of wave-i and of a multi-year bear market, we should see a very powerful move up soon.

Note

While crypto has had a nice run this year, as I mentioned in my Discord a few days ago it looks like we are hitting a top for now. TRX specifically will probably retest the yellow trendline before getting a larger break out.

TRX is in a very extreme situation considering it was in the top 0.01% of volatility in 2017/2018 but now it's in the bottom 99.99% (only more volatile than BTC) since at least 2020. This volatility compression will eventually end with extreme force to the upside. I think when this happens it could make some of the memecoin rally's look small. However, timing the exact end of this compression will continue to be exceedingly difficult and patient will be needed to wait it out.

Note

I should also add that since 2023 TRX has actually been less volatile than even BTC, with volatility levels almost comparable to index funds like the S&P, which is really incredible considering that it was virtually the most volatile crypto just a few years ago (and during that period it did 250x in just one month). This has to be one of the most extreme examples of volatility compression in all of history.

Also considering the strong fundamentals of TRX and the fact that most traders are still overlooking it because it has been quite boring for so many years, a sudden and massive price move that surprises everyone and wakes everybody up is likely to occur at some point.

Intuit

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