TSLA: bullish now or bullish later?
TSLA right now looks pretty bullish, but the flip side is not totally gone.
Bullish count (in purple): Assumes intermediate Y wave completed mid-October with a weird looking triangle and now the bullish price action is just the start of the Primary wave 5. So far, we only have a solid 3 waves to get started and the correction should not drop below $273.54. If we see another high above $358.64, specially something above $414.5, then the bull case gets solid.
Bearish count: (in red): Assumes some kind of an ending diagonal for Minor wave C to complete Intermediate degree wave X. If that is the case, then we should see somewhat of a waterfall correction. With long drawn-out W and X waves, Y wave should be extremely violent. We might get a sharp A wave, followed by a small B wave and then a final bloody C wave to get everyone on the bearish side, only to complete the correction as a flat around the last major low around $100 and reverse. Breaking below $300 support will be the first indication and below $270 is almost a guaranteed $150...
RSI: on weekly has a potential bearish divergence between July 2023 high and this week's high. $300 support break will confirm it. But if price moves higher later this week or next week, then the divergence will go away and RSI breaking above 70 will be extremely bullish. After several failed test at 70, when it breaks out, price will go parabolic.
Right now, I am waiting for either scenario to play out. For bullish case, will wait for a lower degree wave 2 correction that follows the current wave 1 if 5 waves structure completes. For bearish case, will see if support breaks. Not going to short, but either case, a long entry sooner or later will be a fairly long-term hold (for 3-5 years). Primary degree wave 5 target is still something beyond $1000, so no rush!
Bullish count (in purple): Assumes intermediate Y wave completed mid-October with a weird looking triangle and now the bullish price action is just the start of the Primary wave 5. So far, we only have a solid 3 waves to get started and the correction should not drop below $273.54. If we see another high above $358.64, specially something above $414.5, then the bull case gets solid.
Bearish count: (in red): Assumes some kind of an ending diagonal for Minor wave C to complete Intermediate degree wave X. If that is the case, then we should see somewhat of a waterfall correction. With long drawn-out W and X waves, Y wave should be extremely violent. We might get a sharp A wave, followed by a small B wave and then a final bloody C wave to get everyone on the bearish side, only to complete the correction as a flat around the last major low around $100 and reverse. Breaking below $300 support will be the first indication and below $270 is almost a guaranteed $150...
RSI: on weekly has a potential bearish divergence between July 2023 high and this week's high. $300 support break will confirm it. But if price moves higher later this week or next week, then the divergence will go away and RSI breaking above 70 will be extremely bullish. After several failed test at 70, when it breaks out, price will go parabolic.
Right now, I am waiting for either scenario to play out. For bullish case, will wait for a lower degree wave 2 correction that follows the current wave 1 if 5 waves structure completes. For bearish case, will see if support breaks. Not going to short, but either case, a long entry sooner or later will be a fairly long-term hold (for 3-5 years). Primary degree wave 5 target is still something beyond $1000, so no rush!
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