Short

TSLA needs to come down still me thinks...

Updated

You can see the slanted Wyckoff distribution tracks perfectly with the top example in this screenshot here https://ibb.co/rHTgVhG - had to do this because every time I upload this idea, it misaligns a lot of the drawings (though if anyone can tell me how to post an image into these comments, that would be useful).

 We've hit the Wyckoff distribution resistance, and TSLA is now showing/at SOW.  
With that example in mind, it suggests we still have some room to fall on this small time frame distribution.

On a larger scale, we are still falling to hit the SOW in phase B.

On an even larger scale, we still haven't retraced enough from the peak of the inverted H&S pattern.   H&S pattern retracement theory standards are to fib levels 0.382 ($220), 0.5 ($205) + 0.618($189).

The SOW in phase B can hit down with quite some force, so I'm expecting it to most likely close the gap down at 212 (completing the necessary retracement for the inverted H&S too).

Once hit (hopefully ahead of Tuesday 4pm earnings report but who really knows), I expect a move to the upside to hit the UT in phase B.   Having done some backtesting I’ve found the exact same pattern a number of times, and once the AS has completed, it’s a fast move to the upside which would lineup to an earnings report style move IMO.  
If I've missed something/something doesn't make sense/I’m clearly wrong somewhere, let me know :)   —

PLAN: close short @210 range (could reverse within the range of 205-220)

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EDIT: we've hit the Wyckoff distribution support (not resistance)*

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OK I worked out how to post an image as a comment, so this is the linked image from above:

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Something else as an idea I'd like to add based on fractal patterns...

So here are 2 examples of uptrends, labelled and marked as equally as possible based on the areas of support/resistance they match/hit.

The numbers are just something I've added for clarity in explaining.

It seems TSLA tends to fall back to be in line with the trend line that extends where 2 is marked (i.e. first resistance after the reversal). Extend that line out, and 4 drops out to 5 (which is where I believe we are now; in the middle of 4 and 5).

IF that is the case and this does work, then applying the same to the current uptrend, 5 could actually be likely to hit the 0.618 fibonacci line (which still fits inside the theory standards of a H&S retrace) and earnings is going to be an absolute bloodbath (or soon after).

I may have missed something/got something wrong here for sure, but a lot of people are calling for TSLA to rocket, but I think in order to do that, It needs to come down a lot more first.

I've drawn in some large numbered 1-2-3 for a much larger scale idea, because the move from 2 to 3 can be a massive drop before continuing up to 4 (I've backtested this a fair bit and seen it number of times - look at the right example of the 2 uptrends where 3 is almost back at 1).

It's all food for thought anyway - just posting to get some varied opinions.

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In an attempt to try and disprove myself, I've tried it on another random/mini uptrend to see if I could apply all the same principals.

The right uptrend is from the first 2 (the left one) I posted above.

The new one is to the left.

It's obviously slightly different, and each come with their anomalies as it's part of a different bigger scale idea + just other market happenings, but it still all fits IMO.

My point remains that 2 generally lines up with 5 before it makes it's next big move to the upside for 6, and in the current uptrend we're in, we haven't seen that fall back happen yet.

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OK last one...

Left = the right one from my first comment post.

Right uptrend = new idea.

Again, 2 and 5 line up.

You could argue that the resistance line at 2 could be focused on a more downward slope (shown as a the green line), but I always form the uptrend line from 1 to 3, so for this to be the line wouldn't make any sense because it would mean the ticker would have to deviate far too much.

Hope this is all making sense!

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So I've "moved the goalposts" on this so to speak, but I still think the structure remains valid - what I thought was a SOW, turns out we were in for one more move up and it was a bit of a faKeout...

This is now shaping up for me that ER appears to be a move down unless this secondary test breaks to the upside - I don't think it will though.

On a larger scale chart, we still definitely need to hit one of these 3 fib levels before any kind of move up IMO, so 220 is minimum for me.

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Tidied up chart a bit.

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Just looking at previous divergence on the 4hr timeframe, and just why I'm cautious with the idea of it going up before it comes down...

See to the left where it fires down to 5 (0.5 on fib level) before heading up?

This is the kind of movement I'm anticipating, regardless of the bullish divergence showing right now.

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Slowly coming down to hit SOW finally I think.

A lot more to fall IMO.

Stripped the chart back for clarity.

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On the main chart, you can see even for the first possible fib level, we have to get down to 220 range.

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I think we might be looking at a bottom for tonight @225 range.

I think it could possibly head up tomorrow until market open/early market, then we'll see where this bloodbath takes us - my eyes are still on the 210 range still, but 220 range looks like a good bounce potential.

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Just thinking about today...

Down nearly 8% going into today, I imagine a last push to 220 to happen either early on which could push us beyond -10%, but by end of play, we stay above so TSLA doesn't fall into SSR territory OR alternatively, this SOW remains consolidated, and the drop continues tomorrow.

We have good resistance at around 230 range.

We'll perhaps see a rising wedge pattern form throughout the day, which once complete, more fall out (drawn on chart for visual, not accuracy)

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Well it cut through 220 like butter.

Looks like we might bounce at 215 range for the day, which I'm all for - TSLA reacts well to diagonal support/resistance lines more than it does horizontal, so the more bounces we hit along the way, the further it has to fall in the long run (assuming the analysis is right of course).

Additionally, I don't recall TSLA hitting SSR in the last few years?
Case and point, this also looks like a good bounce area since we'd need to climb back up to get under 10% on the day, and I'm sure this day is running low on firepower.

We've reached at least 220 which hits the fib level for the minimum inverse H&S retracement.

Next stop 205 range? Thoughts on going down further anyone???

I've hedged my position from 217 - so I will catch some of the move up right now and continue the short position OR will cancel the short position if I decide it's not still going...

But from what I can see, this keeps going to 205, quite possibly lower - will investigate the next day(s) - any opinions on this, let me know.

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OK there are 17 days where Tesla stock moved more than -10% in a single day (downloaded historical data from yahoo and through it into chatgpt for a quick answer) so this idea I had about TSLA not doing SSR was clearly nonsense (I just really can't remember it happening).

Either way, we're firmly in VWAP (set to 1 month), so a bounce isn't absurd.

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So TSLA reached my 210 target, but I think i'm going to update it because I still feel there's more left to fall?

I closed my scalp hedge position last night at 220 (so was just a 3$ play for chump change) and I'm hedged again at 210 this morning in pre market.

I want to close the gap made from close last night ($215) and let this onslaught continue.

Currently, 205, 200 and 190 ranges look like good bounce areas for now.

My favourite is 200 range, with strong resistance marked at 198 (orange dashed horizontal line)

After that, I'm just being greedy tbh (already feel a little bit that way tbh, but I blame it on hedgefund culture!). That said, as we get more tape come through on the chart, I might update this again for a lower position but we shall see - not seeing that as an option as it stands.

Tomorrow (july 26th) we have PCE Price Index coming out at 8.30am NY time - I think this fundamental lines up with a pump to the upside for TSLA - thoughts?

If TSLA hasn't reached 200 by tomorrow 8.30am, then I think this fundamental will be its push down to hit it.

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TSLA pumping - this is exactly why I hedge around potential bottom areas like this - win nor lose, but least catch some/break even.

I'm out from 210 to 220 for my long hedge scalp position - still holding short.

Still want this to drop out - might not be today, shall see.

If it pumps too much above (225-230) i'm closing my short.

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3min timeframe rising wedge pattern - it's hit the 225 range + top of VWAP (based on 1 day scale)

The count from 1 to 8 in my earlier comments should mean this now is the top and it falls out.

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Going into Friday...

I think we're in an accumulation phase.

We've seen a sharp AR to 225, and I think we need to go in for a secondary test.

Either the secondary test or spring (more likely) will be the point in which we reach my final target of 200 range.

Either PCE price index data at 8.30am NY time OR market open volatility will be a potential trigger to the downside.

For now, I'll open a long position during pre market to hedge myself and just to scalp the way up to the 230 range, then let the short position continue its way down for a ST.

If during premarket we see a move to the downside and break this wedge, then I'll be "moving the goalposts" so to speak, as that would mean we are already heading for a secondary test - if that happens, I won't be hedging until we're back down at 210 range (and obviously won't at all if that secondary test breaks to the downside).

Let me know if I may have overlooked something :)

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Pre-market open, and already up nearly 2% at open, so feeling confident (for now at least) that this is the AR rising wedge in play.

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Just to give some further support to my idea (and hopefully not confirmation bias!), here is an example of a completed TSLA accumulation phase on the 1hr timeframe which sent us to 270 in the end.

I've also included the current accumulation phase on the 5m timeframe to clearly show the similarity in the pattern structure.

So in theory, we should see a fall out that is sub 200 at some point of this accumulation phase - 200 is the working reversal idea for me for now (conservatively speaking) and I'll keep updating this idea as we get more ticker movement.

With upcoming data like NFP next week, that could be a big push to the downside to reach the 0.618 fib line I've previously mentioned, taking us to the 190 range. If we did manage to reach that low before, then data like NFP would be the catalyst to the upside, but will tackle that as it comes.

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This is the 4hr timeframe, showing 2 fractal pattern ideas (blue boxes - i.e. left is a larger version of the right) on TSLA to show how patterns repeat themselves (even if not to an exact science but definitely plentiful) + an example of the same pattern structure using BTC.

Reason for using BTC: Volatile stocks tend to move quite similar, and TSLA + BTC are 2 of the most volatile in the market place. I find it useful to find almost identical patterns - the example used is from 2020 if I remember correctly.

Volatile stocks work very well with Wyckoff theory, which is basically everything I've implied in my analysis so far.

If we use the BTC example chart as a blueprint (which you can clearly see the similarity), we're in a large timeframe distribution phase.

What it also highlights is the potential for us to get down to 0.618 fib level.

After that, we could be looking at a move up to 300 range to end phase C, but soon after, we're nose diving in phase D.

This is a much longer term game plan which will come with its own anomalies for sure, but it's the same theory I've been applying for a long time, and seems to work for the most part. TSLA and BTC still have their own moves that don't match, but they match enough for me to use it as an example.

Case and point, this plays into my idea that we still haven't finished coming down yet.

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additional note: the BTC example is on the 30m timeframe, and yet still the distribution looks the same as the current TSLA distribution phase on the 4hr timeframe.

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SO PCE prince Index is out - previously: 2.6% // forecast 2.5% // actual 2.6%

What does that mean?

Nothing burger IMO.

Market reaction though was downside, but could have guessed it anyway based on previous chart movement.

I'm expecting a drop out to 222 range (absolute most down to 219?), a market open volatility peak to 230 range, and then a big fall out throughout the day.

I could be premature on my idea and missed something, but for now this is the direction. As an alternative idea, it could pop to 230 range first then drop out - whatever the outcome, on a short/mid term/day trading level, a drop out is imminent as far as I can see.

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imbalances are out 5m pre market open and hit 219... i've opened my long hedge position at 221. Looking for a spike to the upside at this point then down we go.

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HIt 218. Holding my scalp position unless it breaks 217

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still holding despite dip high 217... putting my reaction down to market open volatility trying to shake off panicky traders (self included - was very close to closing out). Waiting for the pop to the upside...

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment data out - ticker suggests a move to the upside, but TSLA rarely moves from it, so taking the 1m timeframe spike with a pinch of salt.

That said, back up to 220 and holding range, so could be something/could be nothing...

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RSI is telling me "oversold - let it ride because it will pop". Back-testing is telling me "let it go, we're going to keep dropping"

Stupidly (perhaps) I'm holding this long hedged position despite a drop out to 215 range (at time of writing).

In terms of losses, I'm pretty safe - i let it drop to 210, hedged to 220 (breaking even from 210 to 220), it pumped 225 (making a loss of $5 movement), I let it drop and now hedged at 221... and we're now currently at 217.

I still think we pop - if we don't, i''ve stuffed myself and got this all wrong on the small time frame movement idea. Ultimately, im still hedged though, so i'm neither losing nor winning right now, so I'm not overly worried.

We have breached 218 which was the last notable low yesterday, and we now are hitting a lower low.

Going to ignore all of it for now (again, perhaps stupidly) and see if it pumps to the upside based on RSI oversold.

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OK yeah, scrap all of that... im out for my hedge position at 216. Going to let this run towards 210 range.

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I wrote this post Sunday but apparently forgot to send it (and have been away the last days) so this is now dated but I'm posting it anyway just for my own notes so I can look back on it in future.

That said, nothing has really changed for me, and I'm still short for the interim at least.

So I think on Friday I was a bit hasty on expecting a move up to 230 just yet - the pattern is still valid for now.

Still looks like we're heading down more and going in for the first secondary test (ST) of a small time frame accumulation phase (or redistribution phase to properly describe it I guess) in the coming day(s).

I think it will fail the first ST - though if not the first attempt, the second. I've included a few arrows with their targets (except for the pink one as it goes off screen to hit the dark blue ALT SUPPORT IDEA line).

On a bigger picture, i still think we've got more to come down? 200 range still looks good, but if this is just a redistribution and breaks lower from where we currently are, I'm thinking sub 200.

Need to see where this accumulation goes for now. A strong break above 230-235 would be me out of my short position. Anything that doesn't firmly break this range area with brute force could just be considered "faKeout" territory.

And to be clear, closing my short position could have been done when we hit 210 range, but I tend to find the psychology of it doesn't work for me when holding around areas that COULD reverse + it might have kept going down from there because I missed something.

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Current idea.

Like how this post/idea started with being a less-than-obvious distribution on a slant, I think similar is happening on this redistribution/accumulation phase (still not confirmed which it is).

What I look for are structures that are the same to my examples used, and I think this looks very similar at this point to where I've highlighted the pink arrow.

As it continues to develop, could be wrong of course, but for now this looks like what I look for typically (and worst case, plays in to my hand anyway as I'm not wrong until I'm wrong?).

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205 range hit. Have hedged a long position for a possible move to the upside going into next week.

It looks to me like we've hit ST, so could keep heading down OR start making a move back up. Will do a fresh chart update in the next days.

Trade closed: target reached

So 190 range was the 3rd and final fib level I anticipated for this trade, so I'm closing my short position and keeping my long hedged position for now.

Will probably do a new post in coming days for the next move in all of this, but happy how this has played out to this point for sure.

ash4zeker

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