TeslaLong
Tesla Oversold and Nearing a Bottom
Updated
Tesla broken down into the most basic indicators is Oversold. Since June of 2022 Tesla has reversed each time when the Money Flow Index has come close to or crossed the 20 Line and once again is encrouching on the 20 marker and remains Bearish. The TSI is still showing the current trend as continuing. Right now yesterday's candle has settled into the 1st Long Term Support Price Channel and I suspect will remain here and possibly trade flat for several days as the MFI concludes its pattern. I am waiting for a couple of confirmation signals to determine when to buy however for anyone that is holding Tesla Longterm for 5 plus years in your portfolio or wants to add it or accumulate more then at this price level this is worth a serious look. Tesla however is finally at a Price to Sales Ratio that is more in line with it's peers so the price may remain lower through 2024 than the sustained run through 2023 so far. One last note in looking and waiting for a reversal is that a further drop to $186.00 is possible but as I said we need to see a combination of indicators in agreement for a reversal before jumping back in.
Note
Notice in this 4 screen split of todays chart as to what we are seeing. The MFI has continued it's Bearish move and crossed the 20 mark indicating selling pressure is still dominant. The TSI is also still low and when it begins to turn horizontal and possibly move higher, if the MFI has turned positive at the same time those would be 2 confirmations for a reversal. Right now though also showing you the PPO lower than minus 8 along withand ADX above 25 are a 98% positive precurser for a reversal but it's a matter of when will we get confirmation to jump in. Today's Bullish candle is firmly inside the Long Term Price Support Channel, but still trending below the 7 day EMA. I'd rather miss buying the bottom than jumping in too soon and have the price drops again. Waiting for confirmation of a reversal can test your mettle. "Results happen over time, not over night. Work Hard, Stay Consistant and be Patient."Note
So it's very interesting to see on the daily chart that there was an upswing on the MFI after breaching the 20 mark confirming a reversal. The TSI however has not changed and neither yet has the PPO and the ADX however I had said yesterday that at these values for these indicators there's a 98% probability for a reversal. (NOTE to SELF: Increase that probability for future referance to 99% ;) ) Premarket Today on very low volume the stock moved up $2.00... After hours today on very low volume the stock moved up another $2.00 to finish at $208.00Nearly half of today's bullish move is from Trade volume under 4 million shares. Make's you wonder how the day is going to react tomorrow. Today's Candle is a Bullish Hammer having followed a short green Candle, that is an indication that the bottom is in and the upward trend will continue. Tomorrow I'll wait to see the action as it'll likely open higher around $210 with a pullback 45 minutes into the session and it'll be at that pullback I will put in my buy. This new chart I've boxed in a potential target from $227.00 - $241.00 as a potential Gap Fill move.
Note
So far today the bulls are holding off the selling pressure however the next 45 minutes till 9:45 CST will confirm the story. My immediate concern is the Long Term story and the Potential Bearish Cross of the 50 day ema over the 200. As most of you are likely aware the Golden Cross is one of the Most Bullish Formations as shown on the chart. Coincidentally over the next 2 weeks by December 1st we should see whether the Bearish Cross comes to pass or if Tesla gives us some really good preliminary results Decemeber 1st then the price could rise further and the Bearish Cross will be averted.
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