Continue, Pullback or Markdown Phase
Updated
I feel that TSLA is in or heading into correction. $214 pullback, continue or correction. Original Thesis was $234-$238 Correction zone with Pullbacks and gap fills before big Correction.
This would also be a great BullTrap so that Wall-street can bank on the $200 Call Options this week.
*TSLA is STRONG, The Markets have been Rallying but there are Warning signs that we are in or going into correction.
Bullish Thesis Continuation idea: this is a set-up for impulse move to $223, pullback then or continue to then $238 & gap fill with big sell-off
Lots of TSLA Events coming up which is bullish for next couple of weeks
*Pullback/Correction Idea:
Measured Moves: Extension and Retracements are matching. Extension: 2 Retracement 0.618
Date Range from capitulation event to now are equally measured.
If $215 is broken then TSLA can continue to $223 for wave 5 and correct (Bullish Final Move Idea: this is pullback for pop to $223 and pullback)
If TSLA stops here and the Markets Correct then this could be the set-up for Pullback or Correction. (possible sideways trading for next 2 weeks)
*Daily Volume is showing only Buying - Small Time frame is showing Steady Selling and Impulsive Buying with Automatic sell-off. These are signs of Wyckoff Distribution Phase. *** Pullbacks being bought up are Strong Bullish signs* but TSLA Price has Moved up only 6% in 10 days...on large volume, so distribution is happening, amount of effort to move price is becoming harder to maintain price markup...but is it in correction mode yet is the question.
TSLA can still go higher to extend Impulsive wave 5* currently Wave 3 and 5 are of equal distance which could represent end of Markup. note:I am not an Elliot Wave Expert*
Bearish Sentiment:
Greed is strong
*Seasonality- Markets tend to Drop off Mid February
Vix above 20
us 2y, us10y, dxy,vix all breaking out.
Divergence of NYSE ADV/DEC
Current Sentiment: Bearish* Drop here or possible Upthrust to $223 with Hard-sell below $200
Let me know what you think
This would also be a great BullTrap so that Wall-street can bank on the $200 Call Options this week.
*TSLA is STRONG, The Markets have been Rallying but there are Warning signs that we are in or going into correction.
Bullish Thesis Continuation idea: this is a set-up for impulse move to $223, pullback then or continue to then $238 & gap fill with big sell-off
Lots of TSLA Events coming up which is bullish for next couple of weeks
*Pullback/Correction Idea:
Measured Moves: Extension and Retracements are matching. Extension: 2 Retracement 0.618
Date Range from capitulation event to now are equally measured.
If $215 is broken then TSLA can continue to $223 for wave 5 and correct (Bullish Final Move Idea: this is pullback for pop to $223 and pullback)
If TSLA stops here and the Markets Correct then this could be the set-up for Pullback or Correction. (possible sideways trading for next 2 weeks)
*Daily Volume is showing only Buying - Small Time frame is showing Steady Selling and Impulsive Buying with Automatic sell-off. These are signs of Wyckoff Distribution Phase. *** Pullbacks being bought up are Strong Bullish signs* but TSLA Price has Moved up only 6% in 10 days...on large volume, so distribution is happening, amount of effort to move price is becoming harder to maintain price markup...but is it in correction mode yet is the question.
TSLA can still go higher to extend Impulsive wave 5* currently Wave 3 and 5 are of equal distance which could represent end of Markup. note:I am not an Elliot Wave Expert*
Bearish Sentiment:
Greed is strong
*Seasonality- Markets tend to Drop off Mid February
Vix above 20
us 2y, us10y, dxy,vix all breaking out.
Divergence of NYSE ADV/DEC
Current Sentiment: Bearish* Drop here or possible Upthrust to $223 with Hard-sell below $200
Let me know what you think
Note
Small Time Frame Bearish Divergences and Volume Analysis provided insight ahead of this pullback. Bearish Gravestone Doji formed on the Daily. This Reversal Pattern must be Confirmed with tomorrows candlestick -Bulls need to hold $200 - 5MA can provide support $198 previous resistance.Note
Pull back confirmed, Bearish Reversal / Correction Typically Confirmed with 2nd candle, currently we are seeing the follow through (I will give TSLA 3-4 Candle Pattern to confirm Reversal). I see Point of control at $195. Daily Close Below $200 gives more confidence to Correction. VWAP- WEEKLY: $200 Monthly: $195 This zone will be fight for control.
Max-Pain on Options Today is $198.92
*TSLA has not made a lower low on 1hr or daily since break-out
I could see a small Tsla rally into the CPI data next week before Deciding on continuation or Correction
Note
WOW! TSLA just hit weekly expected highoptions max pain is at $175....? LOL
Bulls are trying to gap open above $214 *** There is something Sketchy about this rally yesterday... Major Options Manipulation is in play.. be careful of "Pump & Dump" today.
*$221.26 is a target Fib area ... + 200 ma
I still think this is a bull trap, but could be completely wrong and this could hit $250 or $260 before Big pullback -
*Vix at Break-out support
DXY trying to break-out
10y&2y- still going up
CPI HOT
Retail sales Hot
*2 market narratives - Inflation is hot, but earnings are good...
The Squeeze is on ...but is this Manipulation ... Strong/ Traps on both ends are being set -
You might want to wait for first 15minutes of trading before choosing a side Today
Good Luck all
Note
EVERYTHING is GOING TO BREAK:Note
TSLA above $215 could play a Cup & Handle continuation Pattern: Note
Revised Distribution - TSLA is beginning or completing final Phase of distribution, we could see one more UTAD to 0.382 Fib from all time Highs ($221) , but opytion wall may prevent this. 
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