Tesla's Alternate Scenario 📈🔍
Updated
Regrettably, our Tesla trade within the 2-hour timeframe faced an unexpected stop-out. The anticipated completion of Wave 2 hasn't manifested, evident in the broader timeframe. Initially, we presumed it concluded at 50%, specifically at Wave C around $195.
This presumption was invalidated post the recent earnings call, signaling a potential double correction. Consequently, we envisage establishing the bottom for Wave 2 within the range of 61.8% and 78.6%. Should this support falter, the price may decline, reaching at least $100. A breach below this level introduces an entirely different narrative for Tesla. It is crucial for the level to hold; otherwise, the bullish scenario could be flawed and invalidated.
In the midst of selling pressure, opportunities often emerge, particularly during a Wave 2 correction. It is characteristic that circumstances may appear more challenging than when Tesla was valued at $100. Therefore, our expectation revolves around a reversal between $177 and $144, paving the way for a subsequent surge towards $500. 📈🔍
This presumption was invalidated post the recent earnings call, signaling a potential double correction. Consequently, we envisage establishing the bottom for Wave 2 within the range of 61.8% and 78.6%. Should this support falter, the price may decline, reaching at least $100. A breach below this level introduces an entirely different narrative for Tesla. It is crucial for the level to hold; otherwise, the bullish scenario could be flawed and invalidated.
In the midst of selling pressure, opportunities often emerge, particularly during a Wave 2 correction. It is characteristic that circumstances may appear more challenging than when Tesla was valued at $100. Therefore, our expectation revolves around a reversal between $177 and $144, paving the way for a subsequent surge towards $500. 📈🔍
Note
Desde nuestra entrada en Tesla a 177,38 $, el precio de mercado se sitúa ahora en 199,70 $, lo que indica un modesto aumento. Estamos satisfechos con nuestra entrada hasta ahora y anticipamos un aumento significativo, que potencialmente podría alcanzar al menos 500 $. El momento y la certeza de que este escenario se desarrolle aún están por verse. Nuestra estrategia es permanecer pacientes y centrarnos únicamente en el gráfico, filtrando el ruido externo y las noticias. Con un stop-loss relativamente amplio, tenemos suficiente margen para navegar por cualquier evento de noticias imprevisto. Sin embargo, si el precio cae por debajo de 150 $, nos estamos preparando para una posible caída hacia 100 $ o incluso menos.Note
We are so sorry we did send out the false commentary here... Here is another correct one ⬇️
Looking back at Tesla since our entry, we continue to believe we've made a solid entry. The price has risen by 15.5% since then. We are on the verge of completely closing the gap. However, there might be a slight issue. If we examine the 2-hour chart more closely, we can observe that we might have concluded our Wave (2), but there appears to be a forming falling wedge. Breaking above this falling wedge, especially with a gap close, would be highly favorable. Should we fall below it, there could be a further decline. Nonetheless, we are currently 33% away from our stop-loss, providing us with the opportunity to ride out any fluctuations. We remain highly optimistic about Tesla and will keep you updated.
Note
Upon closer examination of Tesla, we can now begin to hope that we've reached our bottom at $160.50. This is favorable for us, especially since our entry was at $177, thus it would be beneficial if we start to see a reversal soon. However, it's worth noting that the appearance of the Y wave is somewhat peculiar, within the realm of possibility but unusual. Therefore, another downturn could still occur. Despite this, we're not inclined to lay out a completely bearish scenario for Tesla, as we continue to believe in its substantial upward potential and that it should not continue to fall further. We maintain that the level below the 78.6% mark should not be undercut. Now, we anticipate building a very subordinate 5-wave structure upwards towards Wave ((i)), which in turn is the subordinate 5-wave structure of the Wave 1. Yet, on a overarching level, we find ourselves in Wave (3), which should extend up to at least $500. We'll see if we can find short-term entries for Tesla, as that would definitely be of interest to us. Nevertheless, we must acknowledge that there is always a risk of further declines, as there is still considerable room to fall.
Note
Tesla remains a stock where bulls and bears have yet to reach a consensus on the direction it's headed. Given the bearish trend, one might naturally expect further declines. However, a turnaround has to occur at some point, and we maintain that the current level presents an intriguing opportunity for such a reversal, as long as we don't drop below the last Fibonacci retracement level, which for us is at the 78.6% retracement. If we were to fall below this level, our stop loss is set at $137, a move we consider quite extreme. We believe and stand by the view that the current low at $160.51 may well be our floor. Whether this proves to be the ultimate low or if we might dip further in the coming weeks or days remains to be seen. At the moment, it seems like this could be our low, and that we are in the process of developing a broader Wave 1 with a five-wave structure. We will certainly look to engage in higher-risk trades here, given our long-term perspective with our entry at $177.
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