Still believe in 270+, but perhaps one more drop before the pump
My previous idea was getting a bit long with all the additional comments, so I'm starting afresh.
I'm still of the impression that we are heading for 270+, but Ive started to think that we might need one more fall out before we head up finally.
I'll add some more comments to support the theory, but this is where my head is at for now.
This could quite easily get up a little higher to break the neckline around the 230 range, though after that, it's back to sub 200.
I'm still of the impression that we are heading for 270+, but Ive started to think that we might need one more fall out before we head up finally.
I'll add some more comments to support the theory, but this is where my head is at for now.
This could quite easily get up a little higher to break the neckline around the 230 range, though after that, it's back to sub 200.
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So I post this every time just as a reference + to simplify my explanation, include a count from 1 to 8.
So here is that example again showing 2 uptrends side by side.
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Now here is where I think we are in the grand scheme of things.
You can see the white boxes (4 to 5) are the same, but they are just on very different angles/timeframes, but ultimately, they are the same movement.
So with that in mind, I believe the purple box is where we are currently at in 5 to 6, and I believe we still need to come down a bit to complete this part of the pattern before we head up for 270+
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On a larger scale, I think we are in a distribution phase, which you can see in the example to the left taken from another stock, the ticker momentarily "pops its head out" so to speak, but comes right back in after.
I believe that pop out is where we are at, and will be our 300+ range before heading back down.
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But yeah, I just think that this has been a rising wedge pattern, and it needs to come back down a bit more, and the indicator for me was this fall out from this week (white box) which usually signals the end of an uptrend (which in the main idea i've posted here, is highlighted with 3 purple boxes, it's just not very clear as there's a lot going on).
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And the fall out usually falls level with the purple trend line, which also equals the amount a falling wedge should fall out (highlighted with the orange arrows).Note
Here's the current count from 1 - 8 as I believe it to be.
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Here's also an example of a previous move by BTC from 2020 on 30m chart VS TSLA currently on 45m chart (based on wyckoff theory).
You can see it tracks well for a move back down (purple box) before ramping up.
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I could be wrong on this, but I'm just following the fractals and purely basing this on backtesting + wyckoff + examples that fit.
Always keen to hear if I've perhaps missed/overlooked something.
WIll update as anything else comes to me/goalposts move etc.
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Additionally - using fib - TSLA always pulls back to at least 0.5 (no matter where you draw your extension line to) before continuing to the upside, and sometimes as low as or even below 0.786 (example highlighted with white arrow, but there are more).
While 0.5 and 0.618 are TSLA's "sweet spot" I see the most common, 0.786 lines up with this idea to sub 200 - I know this is a little bit confirmation bias, but I'm more highlighting it for the fact that it can/does happen, so can't be ruled out.
So far, we've only hit 0.382, so even if this idea is wrong, at the very least this still needs to get to 0.5 = 205 range.
That said, I think a move down to 205 cancels the idea of us moving to break out well above 230 because it breaks the uptrend channel (highlighted with red circle).
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Just to show this another way (as basic as this is)...
Each uptrend consists of 3 rallies before a move back down, regardless of the scale.
I've tried to show all that fit on 1 screen.
I think the current small timeframe uptrend from 185 to 230 has completed 3 rallies and while it might go a little higher, it will stick to the 230 range and head for another short term drop out before the next big rally.
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If you look on a smaller time frame, you could argue that another rally up is possible (which it totally is, i'm not ruling it out, just unsure about it for now), but the red dashed line was my previous resistance line before this new one.
You can see like at the green arrow, that major resistances can essentially "squash" the last rally (not sure if there's a technical way to explain that) in favour of the overall bigger picture pattern, and I think that's what is going to happen again.
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Just looking at the chart again with fresh eyes, and still thinking same.
Added some possible fundamental triggers + tidied up chart.
Anything that isn't clear, let me know.
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Another [perhaps lowkey but notable still] trigger this week could be NVDA earnings report on Wednesday, as it could impact not just the following trading days, but perhaps give an idea of what TSLA will do in the opposite direction in the coming weeks.
Here's just an example of last x2 ER's.
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So we've fallen back to 212 so far. This slanted/small timeframe distribution movement is going to be obviously bumpy over the next days, so will be keeping an eye on at what point looks like we're all out of secondary tests and it's showing SOW.
A move back up to 220 range is feeling expected for me short term before more fall out.
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Pretty confident (for now anyway) that this is where we are on this 5m chart wyckoff distribution, so think this gives way for some scalp plays before some more fallout.
I could be wrong on this of course - we have already attempted a secondary test and been rejected - there are more, but to me, bigger picture is saying it'll get rejected.
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So we've hit 205 which is 0.5 on fib, and I think from here it goes up to 220 range before more fall out. Will post a chart to show what I mean when I have a moment. Note
So here's a simple idea of what's going on as far as I'm concerned:
Down on the 5m chart, I think it looks something like this at present:
The next trading weeks will be telling, but given it's end of the month, we could see portfolio rebalancing, sells off for reports (i.e. to influence monthly performance figures), and liquidity needs (since some hedgefunds have monthly/quarterly redemption periods) amongst a few reasons.
None of these are concrete of course, I'm just trying to find reason to match the market movement I'm anticipating.
If this does happen like this 5m chart, then mid term, we are definitely going sub 200, and I'll explain why once we see how today goes.
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If we are where I think we are in the pattern, then we could see something like this:
The TSLA chart on the left side (white box) is where we were before and how the chart moved over those days. The green box is what i imagine happening today, which will take us to 200 range.
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SO I'm moving the goal posts, but overall conviction remains the same.
Sub 200 early next week.
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On the bigger picture, I think it's looking something like this, with the green circle being a target area for a number of resistance ideas.
195 range looks like a conservative reversal area.
That said, with the small sloping distribution currently showing, a push down even lower than that to 180 range looks entirely possible, and with dates like NFP coming up that sees strong pulls in any direction, it fits my (bias) narrative.
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So I wanted to see how Friday's price movement went because the structure was very similar to the bigger picture.
You can see the fractal pattern is the same, so I expect [for now] something similar going into September.
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