TSLA Kangaroo Market 3/1

Updated

VIP Day for TSLA *DUMP & PUMP or PUMP & DUMP... Manipulation is Strong at these levels
This Consolidation will end soon leading to continuation break-out or distribution
Bullish Target $221.5 + Close above $224 will show Buyer Commitment
Bearish Target: Close below $197 *POC
My Patterns & Targets are on Chart

Detailed Insight from: 2/28
TESLA is currently one of if not the Strongest Stock and is helping to hold up the Markets. I believe that the Rally is close to wrapping up at this stage of the "Mark-UP" *Wyckoff Distribution"
I can see "Pump & Dump" -Final UTAD and Possible Continuation through Wednesday with Distribution.
****TSLA is BULLISH - do not mistake my bearish insights as a short confirmation *Daily Chart is very Bullish (The best moves keep going in the same direction) I

Technical/Trend/Patterns:

200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets too ..
-^Bullish double bottom pattern places TSLA move to $220-$224 area
-^Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side
BEARISH:
-Bearish Rising Wedge on Daily- if pattern completes, measured move will go to fill gap @ $147.61 (MACRO-2-3 weeks)
--Bearish Divergences are formed on lower time frames (4hr-1hr)
-Daily Bearish Divergences are looking to follow suit if a new High is made (speculation)
-OBV & Momentum indicators are diverging to the negative (OBV is High but Momentum is low -contrary)
-Price has been moving down but A/D Line continues rising *I analyze this as Higher Distribution
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-***TIME FRAME: Analyzing consolidation patterns and impulse moves (Mark-UP) - I am seeing Consolidation on average of 25-27 days and Impulse Moves lasting 14 days
*Tesla is going to hit 27 days of consolidation on Wednesday I can foresee the Markdown Phase Beginning for 2 weeks and moving into consolidation until before next earnings in April before the Next Mark-UP
This aligns up with Seasonal Market Trends ( Bullish in Jan - Decline mid Feb to mid March)
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Options
Current Options info: *$200 Call Option Wall
-Contrarian view is that with High Call Options @ $200 price will close below that by end of week (Market Makers do not want to pay-out) Max-Pain is currently at 197.5
-Bullish view: amount of options could create a "Gamma Squeeze" -Squeezing Tesla to test or surpass Highs in the short-term, ***Short-term pump & Dump
Weekly Expected Move: $215 High $197 Low

Positives:
-Investor Day is Hyping up the bullish trend as everyone is preparing for Elon to showcase "GEN 3" platform -a new commodity vehicle for $25-30k before mark-up. This has retail piling into TSLA stock with an enormous $200 call Option wall again..
-Berlin Higher production levels
--QQQ Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side - Help to continue Rally

Analysis: Short-Term Neutral/ Bearish (Long-Term Bullish )
My bias is Bearish with a possible pump & dump scenario in play ...
$200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets to .. If Tuesday shows strong Commitment and closes at the highs.. We could see Bullish continuation to $234.
Tomorrow is VERY CRITICAL - Monthly close above $200 shows strong buyer commitment - if there is a sell-off and we see a close below $197, I feel confident that Tsla will retrace to $145 area to fill gap ( 0.618 retracement )
Tsla Closing strong tomorrow will lead me to believe that consolidation may continue through next week until we get March Payroll Data (this puts my target price to $232-$234 before we see "Mark-Down"
*watch how TSLA reacts to Weekly Expected high at $215 area

-I am staying away from Options except for "Day-Of"
-Day Trading has been exceptional - waiting 15min after market open has proved beneficial

Note

Ignore The Monthly close info* that has already happened

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Comment:
Chop Box in process
10 am will help push markets into a direction
Wait for direction
Scalp & Intraday:
I have Long 200.88 to 201.9 is good risk to reward Long (stop-loss) $200.75
my shorts were $205 w/ stop-loss at $207.25 (now stop-loss is 203.99

Note

Bears be-careful here -
Double Bottom Break-Out & Previous Channel can be support
**POC is 198-197 *BULLs will Protect here

Note

BULLS Must Defend ALL MARKETS here
SPY & NDX are on Support @ 200 daily ma
2yr &10 yr and making new Daily Highs and all-time Highs
DXY is Bouncing
Vix above 20

Potential Reversal Bullish Move here for a Liquidity Grab***

I am Taking some short Profit here and preparing for a reversal to the Long

Note

Tesla is (STRONG) it is holding above Gap - I believe that under $197.4 will be difficult for Bulls to maintain mark-up continuation

Above $197 is Bullish

Good Area to take Long - Possible Lower Low with bullish Divergence or 0.786 retracement & bounce - I'm Keeping a tight stop-Loss

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Possible Bounce here...Bulls -be careful - Keep an eye on NDX / SPY / VIX

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Wyckoff :

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Some possible Zone /Scalp trading Techniques I use:
1 min frame break above 50 and VWap + 200 ma sloping up*
2 min frame - 20 ma break cross above 200 ma -add 8ema as bullish line of support

200 ma sloping up* is important/ Strong Volume on break above resistance is important too.. then low volume markup with less effort is a strong clue of bullish break-out micro "markup" Wyckoff is Fractal

there can be several UT & ST or only a few* -Broad Market Momentum will aid in conviction moves

Note

WYCKOFF Market Behavior vs Technical Chart Patterns
.is this Accumulation or Distribution? LOL
This is just an example of how this range trading can go

some more info: *not advise to buy or sell ...lol
Market Makers goals are to shake you out of your positions at a loss with hidden Price Manipulation tactics .. but you will begin to notice their footprints, market logic and better grasp of Market Behavior.

Research & Focus on :
-Overall Market Sentiment / Seasonality /
-range Trading Wyckoff Set-ups
- Key Support & Resistance (Larger Time Frame)
-Volume and price action + reaction to key zones
- Law of effort for a stock (cause & effect)
- There is no "Perfect Schematic" -
-Technical indicators help me, but is not attributed to Wyckoff Market psychology

Good Luck - the image is just an example, I hope it helps -

Note

looking to see if TSLA can hold $201.2 as support and break above 200 ma on 2 min - possible bullish attempt during power hour in @201.9 stop-loss @ 201.17
Resistance @ 203.74

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20 ma cross over 200 is bullish..but I don't like the downward slope of 200ma - Watch for Volume Pickup

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stop-loss moved to 202.11

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using 8 ema on 2min as 1st support, 20 ma cross over 200 will be 2nd support

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out - took $1.5 per share profit may try again @202.25

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in @201.98 stop-loss 201.75 break below 200 ma .. this isn't looking that great

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possible UTAd - false break - Everybody use Hot Keys? They are important

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OK, .. Lets see if this aligns with the chart (pure luck with the time range of break-out) .. Break Bullish or is this Re-distribution

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stop-loss moved to 202.4 This is not the best break-out - ..so far, need to see more nuyer commitment - TSLA should not go under 202.43 .. honestly $202.25 was resistance so that should be support.. but at this time I expect Bulls to step-up strong to finish out the day...but lets see how this plays out

(yes I still have a bias to the Bearish side and believing that TSLA is in a Distribution Pattern.. but we can make money on way up & down.. Good Trading Day everyone! $7.25 per share gain $4+ on way down then 3+ on way up

Note

How much Money will wall-street take from Retail?

Black_Sheep1

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