Short

Updated

TSLA Not Looking Too Good

TSLA has been subject to some extreme volatility recently with shareholders hoping for good news and optimism as Elon Musk partners with Donald Trump.

At the moment, I understand that Tesla earnings can be a potential positive catalyst for the stock if good news is reported, however shareholders may be in for a larger surprise as the price action may be suggesting a potential ABC or larger WXY corrective structure is currently at play.

For this structure, I would like to see the overall 1-1 extension of the trend based fibonacci. To me, it looks as though this structure is made up of many smaller corrective patterns, which are creating a very choppy and volatile environment.

While many stocks have retraced to their "Trump pump" gap levels, Tesla is still quite a ways away, being potentially overvalued.

I will personally be looking for the 0.618 retracement on Tesla just above $440-$450 for a short trade back down to the low of $330 where the latest fomo rally began up to nearly $500.

From there, I would be very much open to taking a long trade or a longer term investment on Tesla.

Only time will tell!

Note

Also, we have the value area high in confluence with the CC zone.

If we reclaim the Value area low, it would make sense to see a value area rotation to the highs

Note

My thought process on this move here is a potential change of the downward trend starting to initiate. Typical gap rules in play , where price will fill the gap before continuing to follow the new trend.

This drop could be a good way to reel short traders in at the low, before squeezing them higher. The move that will follow will then have little to do with fundamentals, or perhaps even the bearish news, but more so the technicals of the market as there may be too many traders shorting into the lows.

If we start closing a daily candle below the $390 level, then things will change for me. However, at the moment my bullish divergence indicators are flashing.

Note

We can see the results of the last bull div printing on the 45 min. We've only recently had 1. RSI is also the most oversold it has been in this corrective phase.

Note

So far, giving me the signs I wanted to see

Note

VWAP power.

We do have quite strong resistance above , and we will need strength to break through.

Note

Next big resistance at $430

Note

Trump tariff news taking a toll on the market today, TSLA with the fake-out of the vwap.

Would still like to see Tesla move higher as I find that news related moves tend to be retraced, similar to the index's recovering last weeks gap down on deepseek news.

To me the best short setup is still the 0.618 retracement within the 450 zone, and will wait to see how the markets develop next week.

Note

Rejected at the POC and the anchored VWAP. H&S pattern looking like a potential trade if we do break down.

Note

Typical bounce at the neckline, reeling in short traders to get squeezed out. I will be paying attention to the downtrend anchored vwap for a potential short. If we blast through it then there is no trade.

Note

Anchored VWAP, holding price down. As we are bleeding slowly, and coming into key resistance areas on the index's , I will be looking towards previous demand zones in confluence with the Anchored VWAP from the trump pump for potential bounces for the recovery.

Note

Bounce #1 at VWAP, I will also be pulling a lower average price trend vwap based on the average lows to give us more clues where price might pivot incase we get a gap down over the weekend.

Note

Larger time frame looks interesting. Each move of this downtrend has been rejected at the 0.618. Including a potential corrective structure with the 1-1 fib extension just below at 347 in confluence with the point of control within this entire trump pump.

Perhaps it pairs with a gap down on monday, before a reversal. I will watch the nasdaq and see if we can find some support at key zones as illustrated in my other idea:

Note

In the extreme case, which may still be possible is a retrace to the 0.618 of this entire move up , in confluence with a Daily level

Note

Almost at the targets

Note

Something to be aware of, the point of control (most traded zone) of this entire uptrend sits just below us around 344.

Note

If I pull the entire range, we get the same result. Based on value area theory, if we do not see a bounce at the POC, then the likelyhood is quite high for us to re-visit the value area low at $310 in confluence with the Daily level.

For me , that is an extremely critical level and I would need to see a bounce in order to have faith in higher prices for tesla moving forward.

Note

Market showing some strength this morning after negative CPI news. Im happy to be purchasing here at these prices. Should we drop further, I will be adding shares!

Note

Realized I made a small mistake on my Trend based fib extension as this correction is still an ABC move down , however my pin point was off by a dollar or two which results in the 1-1 being at 325. The low which we already hit.

Now, I will be paying attention to the downtrend anchored VWAP for either a rejection, or a reclaim.

Note

Major resistance order blocks above, anchored VWAP for support below. Lots of people calling for $270 tesla may be disappointed if they missed this dip and forced to buy back higher, or watch it go without them. Should we have a large rejection at the upper anchored vwap resistance, I will manage risk taking profits. For now, this is likely the local low

Note

If you understand how to trade value area, then you will understand that in order for tesla to climb higher, we first need to reclaim the previous ATH value area. This means that the market had valued Tesla within a fair value range.

You should notice, the Value Area Low of the previous range, is now going to be a key resistance, in confluence with the vwap and order block. So $390 will be quite a strong resistance, perhaps a make or break. However, if we reclaim both the vwap, and value area low, we could start to see a squeeze, as price begins to rotate within the previous range towards the blue line (POC) which is the most traded price within the zone.

Note

Currently being held down by the local downtrend vwap. Looking for a bounce here at the CC for the continuation. If we lose this zone, then we will likely revisit the lows

Note

Failed to hold, and hit the low with an SFP of the liquidity at the previous value area low. I will add some shares here. Should we drop another 10% I will add a larger position.

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped out on the drop!

Will be watching the 275-300 zone next

Note

275 cme gap, seeing some buyers step in

Note

I will be looking for this harmonic to play out, as we have some critical levels below. I can see limit orders already stacked in these zones.

Note

Similarly, with the recent drop into 275, this now becomes an impulsive move as we can clearly see the strength to the downside.

I would assume we get a decent bounce here as we hit crucial support zones. Gamma zone above 311 will likely initiate a bit of a squeeze higher before ultimately rolling over.

I have illustrated the scenario to go hand in hand with the harmonic

afurs1

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

afurs1