Want to reiterate a point made in the initial post above regarding this longer-term forecast: "This analysis and all the targets identified assume the breakout (from the H&S pattern) succeeds. If the breakout fails, and the neckline is reclaimed, this would be short and intermediate term bullish and negate the bearish case until / unless the neckline is broken again."
In the most recent update, ST noted that the first target for this bounce is $198-$200. TSLA virtually reached this target on Friday, November 11, 2022, with a high on the day of $196.52. But price pulled back and closed at $195.97, which was nevertheless a strong close, suggesting this rally isn't over even if consolidative pullbacks occur. With how heated markets have been, ST suspects (but can't guarantee) that some consolidation of recent gains in markets will occur over the coming days. However, prices in general will remain relatively supported going into options expiration for the month on Nov. 18, 2022.
If $198-$200 is reclaimed and held, the next likely target up would be $205, then $212, then $222. These moves must be taken level by level. No one can predict how far bear rallies can run, or how low bear selloffs can fall. Some well-respected veteran traders say to stop trying to predict, but instead just follow price. Price still shows a downtrend on longer time frames (daily / weekly) and in shorter time frames this uptrend has to be respected. Wish it were easier to predict price action, but for now, ST remains focused on staying flexible and watching the key levels, trendlines and other technicals.
Final note: Liz Ann Sonders, the chief equity strategist at a major US brokerage, Charles Schwab, noted today that the 7.4% rally in the NDX puts the rally in the top 20 days going back to 1971. Her data show that of those largest 20 moves (each occurring in one day / trading session), 16/20 were in bear markets. Sometimes data helps when the emotions start to swirl and people all over social media are calling the market bottom. Nobody knows, nobody can predict, but the odds based on the data favor this being a bear rally. That's how ST is thinking of this--in terms of probabilities, not certainties.
How crypto plays out may affect equities, though it seems some decoupling of the correlation b/w equity markets and crypto has been occurring. When equity markets were plummeting in late August, September and October, BTC and ETH for example traded in a sideways range (BTC around $19,246 for many weeks). Now, equities are rallying hard while cryptos are under great pressure due to the FTX debacle. Uncertain times indeed.