I bought a few put contracts of TSLA early this week - and here were my reasonings:
On the technical side, RSI and MACD are bearish of late. In the past during the lat 4 quarters of earnigs, TSLA went down three out of four times when the fundamentals were a lot better. The fundamentals are more challenging no with competition from China.TSLA is also not prirotizing leasing (see today's WSJ).
Lastly, they have underestimated the challenge of large scale manufacturing and integrating that AI. I have been an engineer all my life. Large-scale manufacturing is not easy. It takes years.
I am bearish long-term on TSLA - unless they can show that they have theor house in order.