Updated

[02/03] TSLA GEX Outlook for February expiration

📌 Key Levels & GEX Insights

Gamma Flip Zone: ~400 (until Febr expiration)

Tight Transition Zone, Wide Clear Movement Range

Above 420 Call Resistance: Every strike has positive Net GEX, meaning a return to this range would likely support further balanced upside or sideways movement.

Below 375: The next PUT support is at 350, so a break below this level could open the door for a deeper drop.

There are 3 weeks until expiration. IV and IVR remain high even after earnings.

Despite today’s selloff, the high call pricing skew is still attractive if we want to collect credit.

In this case, a call butterfly or broken-wing call butterfly could be worth considering—but strictly based on GEX levels.

PS: FINAL GEX ZONE COLORING SHEET

Trade active

02/07 UPDATE - TLSA Price Action & GEX Dynamics

Throughout the week, TLSA has been steadily declining within a range dominated by exclusively negative GEX strikes (395-375). It even broke through the put support, triggering additional volatility.

As a result, GEX levels have naturally adjusted, with all key levels shifting downward day by day. The previous put support has now transformed into the HVL (gamma flip), meaning that above this level, a positive NET GEX profile could return. However, below HVL (375), we remain in a negative GEX territory. Meanwhile, the former second PUT wall has now become the new PUT support.

Key Observations & Transition Zone

A crucial development is that the 360-380 range (blue) has now turned into a transition zone. This means price action in this range can fluctuate more easily between:

Negative GEX (high volatility, red)
Positive GEX (low volatility, green),

extending all the way to 400

Many traders consider the blue transition zone as a chop zone, and if it continues to narrow day by day, a breakout in either direction is likely. Today's doji candle also hints at this—let’s see what next week brings.

Friday Expiry & Outlook for Next Week

Since today is Friday, it is highly likely that we close this week with a negative Friday GEX value.
However, next week still has a green GEX outlook, which could provide some relief for bullish sentiment. That said, the February expiration remains negative, meaning that below 375, the negative GEX profile dominates.

For those looking to play it safe, predicting the exact bottom of this correction is not advisable—unless you consider put support at 350 as a reference.

The next more stable price zone starts above 380, where movements are expected to be clearer and more structured.

Note

We analyzed Tesla last Monday, and it was already in the negative GEX range at that time. Throughout the week, those who followed it could observe how each day after the close, the GEX zone levels—both the PUT support and the HVL—shifted lower. Tesla was a great example of how a market maker can continually reposition the price range they find acceptable from day to day. As a result, there was no major spike in volatility; TSLA essentially “melted” rather than plummeted within the negative range.

Currently, TSLA looks similar: it remains in the negative GEX range near the lower end of the transition zone, occasionally nudging into the red territory, but still above PUT SUPPORT.

The call pricing skew has decreased, as seen on the oscillator histogram, while IVR and IVx remain high.

At the moment, there are no clear signs of a trend reversal.

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