🔶 Short- and longer-term perspective in a high IV, negative GEX environment
🔶 KEY LEVELS & RANGES
Short-Term / Intermediate GEX Levels:
– There are gamma clusters around 220–230 and 250–260. These areas often see higher volatility, possible bounces, or stalls (chop) due to hedging flows.
🔶 WHATEVER SCENARIO – SHORT TERM (0–30 DAYS)
🔶 LONGER-TERM FOCUS (6–12 MONTHS, LEAPS)
🔶 STRATEGY IDEAS (High IV Environment)
🔶 ADDITIONAL NOTES & “BIG PICTURE”
🔶 Bottom line: From 221 spot, watch 210–200 on the downside and 240–250 on the upside short term. Medium-term bullish target = 300, while 400 remains a far LEAPS scenario. High IV + negative gamma = fast, potentially volatile moves — so risk management and spread-based approaches are crucial.
🔶 KEY LEVELS & RANGES
- Spot: 221
- Gamma Flip / Transition: around 250 (the turquoise zone on the chart)
– This zone typically marks a “power shift.” If price decisively breaks above 250 and holds, market makers’ gamma positioning could flip from neutral/negative to positive. - Put Support: 200
– A large negative gamma position has accumulated here, making 200 a strong support level. If it breaks, the downside may accelerate. - Call Resistance: 400
– A major long-term “call wall” where a significant amount of OTM calls are concentrated. It’s more relevant to LEAPS; currently far from spot, so not a realistic short-term target. - Call Resistance #2: 300
– A medium-term bullish objective, still above the 200-day MA. You’d need to be strongly bullish to aim for ~300 by May (e.g., going for a 16-delta OTM call).
Short-Term / Intermediate GEX Levels:
– There are gamma clusters around 220–230 and 250–260. These areas often see higher volatility, possible bounces, or stalls (chop) due to hedging flows.
🔶 WHATEVER SCENARIO – SHORT TERM (0–30 DAYS)
- A) Upside Continuation / Rebound
– If TSLA closes above 225–230, the next target is 240–250 (transition / gamma flip).
– If it breaks above 250 and holds (e.g., successful retest), market makers may shift to “long gamma,” fueling a quicker move to 260–270.
– Resistance: 250, 300, with an extreme LEAPS-level at 400. - B) Downside Move / Bearish Break
– If price dips below ~220 and sustains, the next targets are 210–200 (major put wall / negative gamma).
– If 200 fails, negative gamma may magnify the sell-off. It’s an extreme scenario but still on the table given high IV and macro/geopolitical risks.
– Support: 210, 200 — likely stronger buying interest near 200, possibly a short-term bounce.
– The options chain suggests near-term hedging via puts for this scenario. - C) Chop / Sideways
– If TSLA stays in 210–230, market makers (short options) might benefit from high IV/time decay.
– Negative GEX, however, can trigger sudden moves in either direction; caution is advised.
🔶 LONGER-TERM FOCUS (6–12 MONTHS, LEAPS)
- NET GEX = -61.97M (negative territory) suggests longer-dated positioning is also put-heavy or carries notable negative gamma.
- HVL / pTrans = 250 is a key pivot; cTrans+ = 400 is distant call resistance. Between these levels, there’s a mix of put/call dominance.
- If Tesla undergoes a fresh growth phase (AI, robotaxi, energy storage, etc.) and clears 250/300, 400 could become the next significant call wall — but that’s more of a multi-month horizon.
🔶 STRATEGY IDEAS (High IV Environment)
- 1. Short-Term Bearish
– If you’re bearish and expecting TSLA to test 220–210, consider a bear put spread or net credit put butterfly (lower debit) to leverage high IV.
– Targeting 200, but keep in mind negative gamma may accelerate downside movement. - 2. Medium-Term “Contra” Bullish (bounce to 250)
– If GEX suggests a bounce off 210–220, consider a bull call spread (e.g., 220/240) or a net debit call butterfly (220/240/250).
– Be mindful of sudden swings, as we remain in negative gamma territory. - 3. Longer-Term Bullish (>3–6 months)
– A call butterfly with upper strikes around 300–350 offers capped debit and higher potential payoff if a bigger rally materializes.
– A diagonal spread (selling nearer-dated calls, buying further-out calls) exploits elevated front-end IV. - 4. Neutral / Range-Bound
– If TSLA stays in 200–250, you could use Iron Condors (e.g., 200/260) to benefit from time decay and any IV collapse.
– Exercise caution: negative gamma can generate abrupt, directional moves, making a neutral stance riskier than usual.
🔶 ADDITIONAL NOTES & “BIG PICTURE”
- []High IV & Negative GEX: TSLA has a track record of large swings. Negative GEX can intensify sell-offs, while forced hedging might trigger rapid rebounds.
[]Preferred Structures: With expensive premiums, spreads (vertical, diagonal) and butterfly configurations generally fare better than plain long options (less vulnerable to time decay). - Potential Catalysts: AI announcements, Autopilot breakthroughs, new product lines, and macro changes can swiftly alter market dynamics. Keep tracking GEX updates and news flow; TSLA tends to respond dramatically to fresh developments.
🔶 Bottom line: From 221 spot, watch 210–200 on the downside and 240–250 on the upside short term. Medium-term bullish target = 300, while 400 remains a far LEAPS scenario. High IV + negative gamma = fast, potentially volatile moves — so risk management and spread-based approaches are crucial.
Trade closed: target reached
Cannot hold HVL level, still in negative gamma territory, let's see what we will have next week. Have a great weekend
Boost up your charts with Options PRO!
REAL Options metrics for over 165+ liquid US symbols:
✔ 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗼-𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀
✔ IVRank ✔ CALL/PUT skew ✔ Volatility Skew ✔ Delta curves
👉 7-day TRIAL 🌐 TanukiTrade.com
REAL Options metrics for over 165+ liquid US symbols:
✔ 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗼-𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀
✔ IVRank ✔ CALL/PUT skew ✔ Volatility Skew ✔ Delta curves
👉 7-day TRIAL 🌐 TanukiTrade.com
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Boost up your charts with Options PRO!
REAL Options metrics for over 165+ liquid US symbols:
✔ 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗼-𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀
✔ IVRank ✔ CALL/PUT skew ✔ Volatility Skew ✔ Delta curves
👉 7-day TRIAL 🌐 TanukiTrade.com
REAL Options metrics for over 165+ liquid US symbols:
✔ 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗼-𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀
✔ IVRank ✔ CALL/PUT skew ✔ Volatility Skew ✔ Delta curves
👉 7-day TRIAL 🌐 TanukiTrade.com
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.