A quick guess at Tesler at the long run, if reality continues against corporate and political manipulation of the stock.
Trade active
My case for the short side: While the years leading up to now, have been excellent on paper. The new white house has marked a fundamental shift on the brand, that hasn't hit mainstream knowledge yet.- Resale is down in the US. People are having trouble selling the cars. 60%+ deprecation on a 2y car.
- Cybertrucks can't be insured
- Purchasing/Registrations are known, and they are down 50 to 70% in europe
- Down 11-14% at least in the US
- They are offering 0% financing and still can't sell. Lots full of unmoved cars
- In 2024, over 1.3 million new EVs were sold in the US, a 7% increase, while Tesla slumped 4%
- 84.30% of rev comes from car sales, which has been most impacted by an activist CEO
So while they can pump numbers of cars, unless they convince the MAGA crowd who are historically uneducated and poor, to buy a "evil, girl like EV". They are losing their market dominance and main cash cow of the USA. China (who likely doesn't care about the politics) helps offset the loss of Europe and USA, but other brands are coming out with faster, better, sexyier and a 3rd of the cost.
Cars are sold on brand/feelings/identity - anyone can make a car, but what gets it sold, is creating that personal connection that the "car" says something about you.
Note
It's been a dicey few days. Tons of (generally illegal) stock manipulation with multiple people working at the White House promoting the stock. But, even with the surge of retail and all that headwind, you still can't beat reality. We are still on track for a drop.They are trying hard to get the hype going (robots, self driving. 1500$ price target) but nothing is sticking, which is a great sign reality is going to kick in.
Still no major drop yet (10-20% in a day), but the stock is definitely working on it. Retail investors will 'paper hand' just as fast as they pumped the stock after Elon & Co shilled it.
Onwards and downwards, all the way to the bank my fellow #TeamBear
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.