Short

$TSLA heading to $200 and beyond? -- FOMC bull run rejected

Updated

rejected after hitting previous PT of $235 tanks to JPow being extra hawkish today at the FOMC meeting. That being said it's clear now that there's a dead cat bounce building. We might have had an over correction on 11/02, so potential expect the week to be contested between $210-220 as the bulls won't want to give up their premiums, but keep in mind there is HEAVY support at $200 for the next few weeks on all expiries.

Look for a movement to the downside within the next few weeks towards the 11/18 option expiry, or about 11 daily bars / 15 days.

That being said, the extension is showing a potential break down towards a 100% fib extension of $178.49 (-17.11%) move to the downside if completed.
I'm not particularly sure if we will hit that target 100% but we are most likely going to be peaking over 200 in the short term considering we've flashed over a few times in the last impulse (read: $198.59 on 10/24).

This is super early to call out since we only have 1 or 2 daily candle sticks to chart off of without any confirmations of trends so this is as real time raw as you get. Looks like a new downward channel forming from the top of yesterdays action with the bottom support being the previous downward wedge support line. With today's FOMC candle we can draw the middle trend line between this big channel.

Fib extension resistances:
0.5 $207.95 (-7.4 pts, -3.43%)
0.618 $200.99 (-14.61 pts, -6.78%)
0.786 $191.10 (-24.42 pts, -11.33%)
1 $178.49 (-36.81 pts, -17.11%)

Also keep in mind the 200w MA is moving up (slowly) and the current price is $158.88. A drop to this level is -56.61 pts (-26.26%).

One thing to note is that we have been within a stones throw of a larger downward channel in purple for several months now and we've skirted with this line of support in the past in mid October. At this point this bottom line support of this bigger channel lines up nicely to the $200 support zone. However keep in mind the volume profile at this level is VERY weak on the daily time scale. We have to move into weekly volume profile supports to get any meaningful views and again we see a weekly volume profile support at $200 as well as $185.50.

For what I think will happen: Peek out of the purple channel support and flash over to the 0.786 fib resistance and reject as wave #2 on the impulse. Bounce back up to the 0.5 on the extension and reject and continue downward motion. Ultimately I see this somewhere between $190-200 with enough bullish momentum but there's a possibility given the volume profile is so thin here that we can start seeing a harsher trend down to the other diagonal bearish channel support below in green, which coincides with the 200w MA.

PT1: $200~201 (-6.78%)
PT2: $190~191 (-11.33%)
Max profit: $185 (-13.58%) -- This coincides with a weekly volume support shelf of $185. I would hope this support holds, but if it does not then look out for $150 max support below (gulp!)

Stop loss: Breach of $220/225 double resistance supports would break this trend completely.

Note: There is a possibility that this trend could not pan out since we literally are fresh off the print, so there's a decent chance that stays range bound between $200-215 as well. Which would still print for bearish positions theta farming.

Note

PT1 hit. Approaching PT2 soon. Look for support holding above $195. Still lots of bullish support at $200. We could see a small bounce up to $207, but there is a lot of pressure at $210 this week.

Note

PT2 hit. Approaching Max profit $185. Be wary of massive support at $180 to chase profits.

Note

Max profit hit and then some. Be careful about holding short positions, this could reverse quickly back up to $190, 195 zone.

We're in a volume gap on the weekly volume profile between $180 and $165. Big support kicks in at $165, and then a huge chunk of volume support kicks in at $150.

Note

We've hit 100% fib extension at $178.49 more or less. The body of the daily candle is up at support lines at $185. I'm not sure how much more it'll come down from this point. It's possible we just break the bandaid and go for the 200w MA around $159 with us being so close -- however its possible we get support kicking in as charted originally and we go up for a relief rally for wave 2 before trying again.

Definitely consider profits.

Trade closed: target reached

Closing this out. CPI numbers were better than expected, the macro is running up +3%. is +1% shy of hitting a Phantom print so its possible it rejects there, but also possible that this bull run continues past $390 on and hits a channel resistance much higher.

on the other hand is looking like it has enough momentum to push up +8% to max pain of $200 for this week's expire. Any shorts should de-risk and take profits now and wait for confirmation of break of trend or continuation.

paolodamus

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