Tesla De-Risking
Updated
Day Trading Section:
Shorting Tesla to 420:
- the stock has already pulled back 40%; with charts all screaming oversold
- shorting the stock as a day trade strategy might provide great returns; many investors fearful and any bad news could result in massive swings to the downside
- VIX staying high
- any massive swings to the downside could only be compounded by margin calls
- extreme fud and bad press around Tesla: China relations, ALL crashes under the microscope, Crypto wars
- little exciting news around the world, so any small news will be blown up by media
- fear and greed index trending towards Extreme Fear
Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
Investment Section:
Market pulling back as a whole, a lot of risks has been taken off the table.
- a lot of margin calls would have already happened; a 40% pullback would have blown up a lot of leveraged investors
- short interest risen significantly; the news cycle might bring up WSB investors again
- people invested in tsla at 1000+pe, it is now ~600pe; Tesla's growth story hasn't changed
Elon doesn't seem very bothered by the crypto sell-off and the regulatory credit buyers dwindling down.
- could this mean that FSD subscriptions will be online this quarter?
- could this mean that clean energy credits will be getting approval?
Biden infrastructure plan has EV's in mind; republicans support that idea (so rare for both sides to agree on something)
Commodity prices see signs of slowing their uptrend. For example, wood futures for July see significant drops. The cash market should follow in the upcoming weeks.
- Rumors amongst the trucking and lumbering industry that investors have been hoarding supply and double ordering; should price see a decline, could mean massive flooding of supply if rumors are true
- New home constructions slowed; the market shows a willingness to wait for reasonable prices. Lower chances of runaway inflation
Powell will continue to be stubborn about transitory inflation, no signs of sway in the near future
From a chart's point of view:
- Strong support at around $550 levels; round numbers tend to hold well
- Hard to justify disproportionate pullbacks vs indexes; Tesla becomes more attractive to investors the more it pulls back disproportionately
- A triple bottom seems to be forming on Daily Chart and W pattern on 3 Day chart. A false breakout to the downside could be very likely. Bears beware
Burry's short position:
- I can't imagine it being a long-term play; great profits already
- 8001 put options, not 500m short; media likes to blow things up. Burry really only has a fraction of the capital at stake
Domestic competition and competition abroad:
- Lucid motors experiencing extreme growth pains; almost as if scaling production is infinitely harder than it seems
- OEM manufactures stuck on parts
- Only competition seems to be China atm; with their ability to steal and copy Tesla manufacturing and technologies without having to spend anything on R&D
Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
Shorting Tesla to 420:
- the stock has already pulled back 40%; with charts all screaming oversold
- shorting the stock as a day trade strategy might provide great returns; many investors fearful and any bad news could result in massive swings to the downside
- VIX staying high
- any massive swings to the downside could only be compounded by margin calls
- extreme fud and bad press around Tesla: China relations, ALL crashes under the microscope, Crypto wars
- little exciting news around the world, so any small news will be blown up by media
- fear and greed index trending towards Extreme Fear
Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
Investment Section:
Market pulling back as a whole, a lot of risks has been taken off the table.
- a lot of margin calls would have already happened; a 40% pullback would have blown up a lot of leveraged investors
- short interest risen significantly; the news cycle might bring up WSB investors again
- people invested in tsla at 1000+pe, it is now ~600pe; Tesla's growth story hasn't changed
Elon doesn't seem very bothered by the crypto sell-off and the regulatory credit buyers dwindling down.
- could this mean that FSD subscriptions will be online this quarter?
- could this mean that clean energy credits will be getting approval?
Biden infrastructure plan has EV's in mind; republicans support that idea (so rare for both sides to agree on something)
Commodity prices see signs of slowing their uptrend. For example, wood futures for July see significant drops. The cash market should follow in the upcoming weeks.
- Rumors amongst the trucking and lumbering industry that investors have been hoarding supply and double ordering; should price see a decline, could mean massive flooding of supply if rumors are true
- New home constructions slowed; the market shows a willingness to wait for reasonable prices. Lower chances of runaway inflation
Powell will continue to be stubborn about transitory inflation, no signs of sway in the near future
From a chart's point of view:
- Strong support at around $550 levels; round numbers tend to hold well
- Hard to justify disproportionate pullbacks vs indexes; Tesla becomes more attractive to investors the more it pulls back disproportionately
- A triple bottom seems to be forming on Daily Chart and W pattern on 3 Day chart. A false breakout to the downside could be very likely. Bears beware
Burry's short position:
- I can't imagine it being a long-term play; great profits already
- 8001 put options, not 500m short; media likes to blow things up. Burry really only has a fraction of the capital at stake
Domestic competition and competition abroad:
- Lucid motors experiencing extreme growth pains; almost as if scaling production is infinitely harder than it seems
- OEM manufactures stuck on parts
- Only competition seems to be China atm; with their ability to steal and copy Tesla manufacturing and technologies without having to spend anything on R&D
Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
Note
Not financial advice. Just an ape that can draw linesNote
Abnormally high implied volatility on June 4th $300 TSLA puts. Happens to match my predictions of when the last and final fakeout will happen before a false breakout.
Also matches the day of Tesla's Model S Plaid delivery event; could someone be betting on something delaying or disrupting the event?
Note
MASSIVE call volume for $580 May 21st calls for TSLA
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