TESLAINC:FORECAST FUNDAMENTAL+PRICE ACTION|LONG SETUPđź””
Not so long ago, the number of opportunities to invest in electric cars was limited: it was either Tesla or nothing. If investors were unwilling to join Musk's team, they were just out of luck.
Although there has been a dramatic turnaround in the last year, and the number of options has increased significantly thanks to the strong growth in the market of electric car companies, Tesla remains the focus of investors. And with President Biden recently stating that electric cars will account for 50 percent of new car sales by 2030, investors are taking a special interest. Let's take a look at some important things potential buyers of Tesla stock should be aware of before including it in their portfolios.
Since its introduction nearly two years ago, the Cybertruck has sparked interest from buyers and investors alike. About a week after Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, orders for it soared to 200,000, and Tesla enthusiasts, through their fansite Teslarati, estimate that orders for the Cybertruck now total about 1.2 million.
Tesla offers a base model with single-engine rear-wheel drive for $39,900.
Dual-engine all-wheel-drive and three-engine all-wheel-drive models are priced at $49,900 and $69,900, respectively. Assuming the 1.2 million reservations are accurate, and assuming a conservative estimate that all reservations come from the least expensive model, Tesla's revenue would be about $48 billion. By comparison, the company's 2020 revenue was $31.5 billion. Clearly, the success of the Cybertruck plays an important role in Tesla's scenario.
The company originally envisioned that the production of a single-engine model would begin in late 2021. However, company executives have put the brakes on that version. During Tesla's second-quarter 2021 conference call, Lars Moravy, vice president of vehicle development, said the company is "moving into beta phases [of production] of the Cybertruck later this year," and Tesla's Cybertruck booking site shows that production is scheduled for 2022. While a delay in Cybertruck production shouldn't discourage potential investors from buying stock, it's important to understand that delays allow competitors like Ford with its all-electric F-150 and Rivian with its R1T to step on the gas pedal.
Like many other companies, Tesla is dealing with manufacturing problems due to a global shortage of semiconductors. In fact, Musk said during his second-quarter report that the semiconductor shortage has forced Tesla to sacrifice the production of its Powerwall energy storage unit to meet car production needs. But the semiconductor shortage isn't the only problem on Tesla's radar: Company executives may be keeping lithium supplies up at night. Tesla investors know that in September 2020, the company entered into a five-year agreement with Australian mining company Piedmont Lithium to buy lithium-containing spodumene concentrate at a fixed price (with an option to extend for another five years). Piedmont originally assumed that Tesla deliveries would begin between July 2022 and July 2023.
Now that doesn't seem so likely.
Residents of North Carolina, where the mineral deposit is located, have spoken out against the company's project development. Consequently, Piedmont said it was postponing supplies to Tesla indefinitely.
When talk turns to Tesla stock, investors' opinions diverge sharply. In fact, Tesla stock is one of the most hotly debated tickers. For example, Piper Sandler, who sides with the bulls, puts the price target at $1,200, while Citigroup, which represents the bears, thinks the stock will fall to $209. Let's leave the price targets to Wall Street. After all, analysts often have much shorter time horizons for investing than we prefer. Instead, let's just look at stock valuations. Tesla stock has soared more than 862% in the past three years, but don't be fooled: its valuation has recently declined.
The stock is currently valued at about 86.6 times operating cash flow. That may seem expensive, but consider that the average five-year stock cash flow ratio is 134.3. Sure, the stock still trades at a high multiple, but it has been growing at an impressive rate since the company began generating positive cash flow. As demand for the company's cars remains strong, the company's cash flow will likely continue to grow.
Unconvincing? Let's look at it from a different perspective. Today, Tesla stock is trading at 147 times forward earnings. Exorbitant, you say? Think again. Stocks often reflect inflated investor expectations for growth. For example, earlier this summer, on June 30, the stock traded at 161 times projected earnings, while a year ago on the same day, the P/E ratio was 370.
Cybertruck release delays. Semiconductor shortages. Lithium problems. Sure, Tesla has a lot of problems right now, but the company has faced challenges before -- and won. These problems, while undesirable, are hardly something that makes potential investors look elsewhere. In fact, it's at times like these, when things seem bleak, that savvy and patient investors can buy the stock at a low price.
Although electric car traffic is on the rise as competitors such as Lucid Motors and Fisker prepare to ramp up production, there is definitely room for more than one success story in the electric car market, and Tesla will certainly remain one of them.
Although there has been a dramatic turnaround in the last year, and the number of options has increased significantly thanks to the strong growth in the market of electric car companies, Tesla remains the focus of investors. And with President Biden recently stating that electric cars will account for 50 percent of new car sales by 2030, investors are taking a special interest. Let's take a look at some important things potential buyers of Tesla stock should be aware of before including it in their portfolios.
Since its introduction nearly two years ago, the Cybertruck has sparked interest from buyers and investors alike. About a week after Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, orders for it soared to 200,000, and Tesla enthusiasts, through their fansite Teslarati, estimate that orders for the Cybertruck now total about 1.2 million.
Tesla offers a base model with single-engine rear-wheel drive for $39,900.
Dual-engine all-wheel-drive and three-engine all-wheel-drive models are priced at $49,900 and $69,900, respectively. Assuming the 1.2 million reservations are accurate, and assuming a conservative estimate that all reservations come from the least expensive model, Tesla's revenue would be about $48 billion. By comparison, the company's 2020 revenue was $31.5 billion. Clearly, the success of the Cybertruck plays an important role in Tesla's scenario.
The company originally envisioned that the production of a single-engine model would begin in late 2021. However, company executives have put the brakes on that version. During Tesla's second-quarter 2021 conference call, Lars Moravy, vice president of vehicle development, said the company is "moving into beta phases [of production] of the Cybertruck later this year," and Tesla's Cybertruck booking site shows that production is scheduled for 2022. While a delay in Cybertruck production shouldn't discourage potential investors from buying stock, it's important to understand that delays allow competitors like Ford with its all-electric F-150 and Rivian with its R1T to step on the gas pedal.
Like many other companies, Tesla is dealing with manufacturing problems due to a global shortage of semiconductors. In fact, Musk said during his second-quarter report that the semiconductor shortage has forced Tesla to sacrifice the production of its Powerwall energy storage unit to meet car production needs. But the semiconductor shortage isn't the only problem on Tesla's radar: Company executives may be keeping lithium supplies up at night. Tesla investors know that in September 2020, the company entered into a five-year agreement with Australian mining company Piedmont Lithium to buy lithium-containing spodumene concentrate at a fixed price (with an option to extend for another five years). Piedmont originally assumed that Tesla deliveries would begin between July 2022 and July 2023.
Now that doesn't seem so likely.
Residents of North Carolina, where the mineral deposit is located, have spoken out against the company's project development. Consequently, Piedmont said it was postponing supplies to Tesla indefinitely.
When talk turns to Tesla stock, investors' opinions diverge sharply. In fact, Tesla stock is one of the most hotly debated tickers. For example, Piper Sandler, who sides with the bulls, puts the price target at $1,200, while Citigroup, which represents the bears, thinks the stock will fall to $209. Let's leave the price targets to Wall Street. After all, analysts often have much shorter time horizons for investing than we prefer. Instead, let's just look at stock valuations. Tesla stock has soared more than 862% in the past three years, but don't be fooled: its valuation has recently declined.
The stock is currently valued at about 86.6 times operating cash flow. That may seem expensive, but consider that the average five-year stock cash flow ratio is 134.3. Sure, the stock still trades at a high multiple, but it has been growing at an impressive rate since the company began generating positive cash flow. As demand for the company's cars remains strong, the company's cash flow will likely continue to grow.
Unconvincing? Let's look at it from a different perspective. Today, Tesla stock is trading at 147 times forward earnings. Exorbitant, you say? Think again. Stocks often reflect inflated investor expectations for growth. For example, earlier this summer, on June 30, the stock traded at 161 times projected earnings, while a year ago on the same day, the P/E ratio was 370.
Cybertruck release delays. Semiconductor shortages. Lithium problems. Sure, Tesla has a lot of problems right now, but the company has faced challenges before -- and won. These problems, while undesirable, are hardly something that makes potential investors look elsewhere. In fact, it's at times like these, when things seem bleak, that savvy and patient investors can buy the stock at a low price.
Although electric car traffic is on the rise as competitors such as Lucid Motors and Fisker prepare to ramp up production, there is definitely room for more than one success story in the electric car market, and Tesla will certainly remain one of them.
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