TSLA Downside Reaction Areas
Updated
With TSLA falling off a cliff and approaching the 100 handle I thought I’d share what my trade system and methodology says from a TA perspective.
TL:DR
I really should put this section here, but I know most are lazy.
The setup:
We could use the daily chart but in most cases, using the 4D provides the best probability in reaction areas and zones.
In OCT 2022 when the chart officially gave up the RDA (RexDog Average) TSLA officially turned BIAS short. The next bar it turned momentum short. From that point on it has adhered to all bias and momentum checks.
Of note is the mixed 200 AVG is still green. This one factor might be why it’s good to start looking for potential downside reaction areas. These reaction areas will most likely result in upward impulses to either momentum or bias checks that will ultimately fail.
Downside Areas:
The first obvious downside area is right around 97.00. This is the obvious key 4D level from JUL 2020 or so. It was the final momentum check before TSLA had the first momentum run and ATH of DEC 2020. That resulted in an RDA bias check that held and ultimately created the new ATH to 420 or so, ELON pun intended.
The PAC
The JUN 2020 PAC is a major inflection candle that I would expect if the price gets to this area we will see some upside reactions and even some value range creation. The 78 level of that PAC is critical to hold for any serious upside in the first few quarters of 2023.
Also of note is the extreme band of the RDA is sitting right at 59. This is the upper level of the important Value Channel (20-60) that on this chart shows is the launch area for the last few years of price action.
Generally, I look at these areas as areas of what I call “crisis.”
You can see them as a price crisis or viability of the brand, company, idea, or market. Just about any chart you pull up, you can outline the crisis areas, typically, there are 3 before a chart enters what is called the mature phase. The mature phase is where the company or chart becomes part of society and the ecosystem as a whole. Think IBM, Boeing, etc.
Any questions or if you want more clarification ask questions on this idea. I’ll keep it updated as time goes on.
TL:DR
I really should put this section here, but I know most are lazy.
- 97 – key reaction area
- 79 – PAC key level
- 44 – this level or so is the first test of the inflection area and would mark 1st crisis test for TSLA
The setup:
We could use the daily chart but in most cases, using the 4D provides the best probability in reaction areas and zones.
In OCT 2022 when the chart officially gave up the RDA (RexDog Average) TSLA officially turned BIAS short. The next bar it turned momentum short. From that point on it has adhered to all bias and momentum checks.
Of note is the mixed 200 AVG is still green. This one factor might be why it’s good to start looking for potential downside reaction areas. These reaction areas will most likely result in upward impulses to either momentum or bias checks that will ultimately fail.
Downside Areas:
The first obvious downside area is right around 97.00. This is the obvious key 4D level from JUL 2020 or so. It was the final momentum check before TSLA had the first momentum run and ATH of DEC 2020. That resulted in an RDA bias check that held and ultimately created the new ATH to 420 or so, ELON pun intended.
The PAC
The JUN 2020 PAC is a major inflection candle that I would expect if the price gets to this area we will see some upside reactions and even some value range creation. The 78 level of that PAC is critical to hold for any serious upside in the first few quarters of 2023.
Also of note is the extreme band of the RDA is sitting right at 59. This is the upper level of the important Value Channel (20-60) that on this chart shows is the launch area for the last few years of price action.
Generally, I look at these areas as areas of what I call “crisis.”
You can see them as a price crisis or viability of the brand, company, idea, or market. Just about any chart you pull up, you can outline the crisis areas, typically, there are 3 before a chart enters what is called the mature phase. The mature phase is where the company or chart becomes part of society and the ecosystem as a whole. Think IBM, Boeing, etc.
Any questions or if you want more clarification ask questions on this idea. I’ll keep it updated as time goes on.
Comment
End of year is looking to maybe test some momentum checks, which in all likelihood will fail. Of note is the slow momentum check is about 28% away as I write this. That would be a nice mini rally to failure down to the levels mentioned above.Outlined here is the reaction zone, 4-5 key reaction areas in this zone where you expect some reaction and eventual downside failure:
Comment
As expected TSLA hit a momentum inicator and failed to downside. To be fair, easy to call as the chart sits now. I'll be watching the downside areas outlined for both swing trades and option trades.Here we see the tap of the fast momentum:
Comment
Fell short so far of my downside areas. coming up is the best fade zone area. between 129-138, aligns with slow momentum indicatorComment
Too aggressive so far waiting for that area. Up almost 50% from the lows.
I'd still fade the move in the next zone:
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