EV maker Tesla 
TSLA is perhaps the most controversial stock in U.S financial markets right now. Sales appear to be slowing, while CEO Elon Musk's position as a Trump administration adviser has led political opponents to attack Tesla vehicles, dealerships and even some vehicle owners.
TSLA popped 11.9% on Monday (March 24), but has generally been sinking for months. What does technical and fundamental analysis say might happen next?
Let's dig in and see what we find:
Tesla’s Fundamental Analysis
TSLA rose almost 95% in the roughly seven weeks between Donald Trump’s November election victory and the stock’s $488.54 all-time intraday high on Dec. 18. After all, Musk’s close ties to Trump seemed to point to good times ahead for the company.
However, the stock’s price has been in decline ever since then, while vandalism of Tesla vehicles by Trump opponents has made owning or one a slightly risky affair.
As of this writing, TSLA was down 32.2% year to date and 44% from the stock's Dec. 18 peak.
Beyond politics, a lot of this had to do with the reality that demand for electric vehicles might have hit something of a saturation point, at least for now.
There’s also been a tremendous increase in competition in recent years for electric-vehicle purchases or leases. Volkswagen
VWAGY has ramped up its EV efforts, while China is absolutely full of homegrown competitors like BYD 
BYDDF, Nio 
NIO and XPeng 
XPEV .
All in, Tesla’s vehicle sales have slackened not just in America, but also in Europe and China. But to be fair, Ford
F, General Motors 
GM and Rivian 
RIVN have all hit slowdowns in EV sales as well.
Still, add it all up and Wall Street is looking TSLA to report Q1 results in May that include $0.47 of adjusted earnings per share on $22.9 billion of revenue.
That would represent 4.4% larger earnings and about 7.5% higher revenues when compared to last year’s Q1, where Tesla reported $0.45 of adjusted EPS on $21.3 billion in revenues.
However, all 13 sell-side Tesla analysts that I can find have revised their quarterly estimates lower since current quarter began.
On the bright side, the automaker’s operating and free cash flows have remained strong for the past three quarters.
The firm ended 2024 with some $36.6 billion in cash against a $13.6 billion total debt load. That’s what many would consider a strong balance sheet that could sustain Tesla’s operations for a time if need be.
Tesla’s Technical Analysis
A look at Tesla’s one-year chart shows that while the stock has been falling since December, it still managed to make a stand technically in recent days:
The purple line at right in the above chart shows that TSLA found support twice in March very close to $212.30. That’s the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the stock’s entire April 2024 to December 2024 run.
That purple line also shows indicates that Tesla has formed a small “double bottom” pattern of what could be a bullish reversal at the Fibonacci support level, and that the stock has since tried to rally from there.
TSLA was also able to recently take back its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted by the green line above). However, the stock appears to have hit resistance at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked above with a red line).
That makes the 200-day SMA the stock's likely new pivot point.
A retaking of the 200-day SMA would allow for increased target prices. Conversely, a retest and loss of Tesla’s 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level could permit a further decline.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line in the above chart’s top) has mostly improved recently and now stands in neutral territory.
Similarly, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator -- or “MACD,” denoted by the black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom -- is in a less-awful place than it was earlier this year.
The histogram of Tesla’s 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted by the blue bars at the chart’s bottom) is now above zero. That’s historically a short-term bullish sign.
Similarly, the stock’s 12-day EMA (the black line at the bottom) is now above its 26-day EMA (the gold line). That’s typically somewhat positive, but both of those lines are still below zero -- which is historically a negative signal.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in TSLA at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
TSLA is perhaps the most controversial stock in U.S financial markets right now. Sales appear to be slowing, while CEO Elon Musk's position as a Trump administration adviser has led political opponents to attack Tesla vehicles, dealerships and even some vehicle owners.TSLA popped 11.9% on Monday (March 24), but has generally been sinking for months. What does technical and fundamental analysis say might happen next?
Let's dig in and see what we find:
Tesla’s Fundamental Analysis
TSLA rose almost 95% in the roughly seven weeks between Donald Trump’s November election victory and the stock’s $488.54 all-time intraday high on Dec. 18. After all, Musk’s close ties to Trump seemed to point to good times ahead for the company.
However, the stock’s price has been in decline ever since then, while vandalism of Tesla vehicles by Trump opponents has made owning or one a slightly risky affair.
As of this writing, TSLA was down 32.2% year to date and 44% from the stock's Dec. 18 peak.
Beyond politics, a lot of this had to do with the reality that demand for electric vehicles might have hit something of a saturation point, at least for now.
There’s also been a tremendous increase in competition in recent years for electric-vehicle purchases or leases. Volkswagen
VWAGY has ramped up its EV efforts, while China is absolutely full of homegrown competitors like BYD BYDDF, Nio NIO and XPeng XPEV .All in, Tesla’s vehicle sales have slackened not just in America, but also in Europe and China. But to be fair, Ford
F, General Motors GM and Rivian RIVN have all hit slowdowns in EV sales as well.Still, add it all up and Wall Street is looking TSLA to report Q1 results in May that include $0.47 of adjusted earnings per share on $22.9 billion of revenue.
That would represent 4.4% larger earnings and about 7.5% higher revenues when compared to last year’s Q1, where Tesla reported $0.45 of adjusted EPS on $21.3 billion in revenues.
However, all 13 sell-side Tesla analysts that I can find have revised their quarterly estimates lower since current quarter began.
On the bright side, the automaker’s operating and free cash flows have remained strong for the past three quarters.
The firm ended 2024 with some $36.6 billion in cash against a $13.6 billion total debt load. That’s what many would consider a strong balance sheet that could sustain Tesla’s operations for a time if need be.
Tesla’s Technical Analysis
A look at Tesla’s one-year chart shows that while the stock has been falling since December, it still managed to make a stand technically in recent days:
The purple line at right in the above chart shows that TSLA found support twice in March very close to $212.30. That’s the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the stock’s entire April 2024 to December 2024 run.
That purple line also shows indicates that Tesla has formed a small “double bottom” pattern of what could be a bullish reversal at the Fibonacci support level, and that the stock has since tried to rally from there.
TSLA was also able to recently take back its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted by the green line above). However, the stock appears to have hit resistance at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked above with a red line).
That makes the 200-day SMA the stock's likely new pivot point.
A retaking of the 200-day SMA would allow for increased target prices. Conversely, a retest and loss of Tesla’s 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level could permit a further decline.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line in the above chart’s top) has mostly improved recently and now stands in neutral territory.
Similarly, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator -- or “MACD,” denoted by the black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom -- is in a less-awful place than it was earlier this year.
The histogram of Tesla’s 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted by the blue bars at the chart’s bottom) is now above zero. That’s historically a short-term bullish sign.
Similarly, the stock’s 12-day EMA (the black line at the bottom) is now above its 26-day EMA (the gold line). That’s typically somewhat positive, but both of those lines are still below zero -- which is historically a negative signal.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in TSLA at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.