Long

TSLA down a little more before a rally

This is just a continuation of my last TSLA post because the comments were getting too long, but my conviction remains the same.

I want us to hit a little lower before we head to the upside.

Conservatively, just south of 200, with room to hit lower - green circle is the target, with a few support options available to us.

With the small sloping distribution currently showing on the smaller timeframe, a push down even lower than that to 180 range looks entirely possible, and with dates like NFP coming up that sees strong pulls in a direction, it fits my [bias] narrative.

Will do some more updates in the coming days to support the theory, though you can look at my previous post which goes into detail.

Note

(If the chart looks distorted on your screen, here's a screen shot)

Note

On the 5m chart, we're looking like this, and for now, I believe the drop out will come Friday for NFP.

Note

So we've come back under the resistance line, so I believe we need to either follow the orange arrow and complete this move down to 205 range OR we follow the green line back up to 210 -215 range first, then back down to 205 range.

I believe we're in the green slither shown on the example.

EIther way, 205 range needs to be reached, and the gap never got absolutely closed at 220 range on the 1m timeframe, but that's OK because one last rally up before falling out is in order IMO, so we'll head up to the 220 range again before heading firmly down, which to me, looks like it could line up with NFP still.

For now, I'd say we head up to 210-215, then continue falling out? We're down 1.20% in pre market, meaning there's plenty of gap to move up to reach last nights close.

There's also a gap at 202 which could get closed but we shall see - could see same thing that happened yesterday where it didn't quite close.

Note

Here are 3 fractals on the chart.

The white arrows represent the same part I believe we're in.

You can see each time it heads up before we continue down.

The larger fractal hits 0.786 fib line, the second hits TSLA's usual "sweet spot" at 0.618, and the final one we're in I believe will reach 0.786 (which i've drawn to the right because it looked too busy otherwise, but the 1st target area would be 210 to 215 first - ideally closer to 215 - then down to 205 to hit the 0.786 fib).

We can also see that on the bigger fractal pattern, it overshoots 0.786, which I'm seeing quite possible to close our gap at 202.

Note

Here's how I see it playing out for now.

I think i've drawn each fractal correctly, but if I've missed something I'll update it in the coming days.

Note

Here's a closer look

Here's another simplified fractal idea, with the target being the green box. And you see how in the green box to the left the ticker runs really tight (a sort of shimmy) along the top resistance line of the channel before dropping out the following day? I'm looking for a similar movement.

Could also argue (and ignore the chaos of this chart, and focus on the green zig zag line) this is a H&S pattern.

Just waiting for the market to open to see if this is any part accurate.

Note

OK so we hit my target of 215 range... this could go up more may be? I don't know, but this is good enough for me for today - everything will just be scalping from here, but main trade is short again.

Note

So we pushed above 215, and sitting in 220 range. I don't imagine it going any higher at this point. If it does, the thesis is out.

While some of my above comments are perhaps too precise/redundant now, the overall short idea remains the same and perhaps I've overlooked something which I'll get it into in a future post over the coming days.

But I'm still on short duties for this, and here's just a few examples of this pattern playing out where it does indeed go back inside the rising wedge before dropping out.

I imagine tomorrow to be pretty heavy on the consolidation, then Friday we nose dive.

The consolidation is the "shimmy" I was referring to.

(the red arrow to the far right is not indicative of where it's going, just that it will punch down after this)

Note

I'll try to do some a post/more posts today, but I worked out where I've gone wrong, but the overall picture is still the same for sub 200 and what we're seeing in pre market today up to 225 isn't phasing me (though lowkey annoyed I missed a $10 dollar move up but I'll get over it).

So we still definitely need to come down and this is just merely a faKeout IMO from the possible necklines/resistances.

Here's where I now realise we are in the distribution phase.

Everything to me is still lining NFP up to be a drop out to sub 200.

Note

So this pumped a lot higher than I anticipated, but i'm still going to hold my short position and it just all looks like a big dump into NFP.

To the left, is an example of when TSLA did this before, and top right is the same example I've been using - the distribution of this drop out from 270 just doesn't look finished to me.

If anyone can see if I'm missing anything, let me know.

Will try to work out what I did wrong on the smaller timeframe charts to think it wouldn't go much higher than 220 the other day, but I'm still fairly convinced of a fall out either way.

Note

For now, I'm thinking this is just a faKeout still (similar to the white boxes across the chart)

To me, this rising wedge needs to play out...

Note

So today I got kind of caught out, hedged in premarket, closed the long position when it dropped below VWAP at 224 at open, then had to reenter a long/hedged position at 221 as we went back up above the daily VWAP to catch the rest of the days move up currently sat at 227.

I've now closed that long position and hoping for the fall out to finally begin for PPI tomorrow.

I'm still maintaining the idea that we are heading down really soon - if we pump above 234, then it looks like we're going a bit higher and i've tracked things wrong, but here is my current thinking:

TSLA does do this current zig-zag up and down sometimes before a big drop out, so i'm not entirely unnerved just yet, but let's see where tomorrow takes us for PPI, which is why for now i'm OK with closing my long/hedged position.

Note

I keep moving the goalposts on this one, because I'm just still convinced for now that - as long as we don't break 234 - we're in this area.

It's really taking its time, and I was working with the idea that one of last weeks data points would have been a trigger, but nothing still and it's just slowly edging up...

There's not much more room for it to go up and where I think we are (yellow arrow) to be valid, so hopefully it all happens in the coming trading day(s).

ash4zeker

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.