a weekly price action market recap and outlook - tesla #3
Good evening and i hope you are well.
tl;dr: do or die here at 170 for the bulls. If we break below the bear channel line, bulls covering will fuel this further. Strongly bearish.
Last week i wrote the following:
"bear case: Price action wise was this a wedge bear flag which broke down and now market will test 175 if there are more buyers than sellers. Not rocket science so far."
I still did not adjust my wave thesis since 2024-02-11. I added a sub w5 for the bigger w3 to make it clearer what i expect the next weeks.
bull case: Do or die here at 170. The bear channel has to hold or we will flush down to around 150. If bulls manage to hold 170, we could probably see sideways movement to the upper bear channel, where i expect stronger selling again. Bulls can probably only stall the market until next earnings 2024-04-17 and pray for a elon miracle.
bear case: Nothing bullish about this stock at all. Bears are in full control and selling everything. If they manage to break below the bear channel, the long covering will accelerate it to 150 but probably not much further before earnings. If earnings are as bad as i expect, the remaining die hard bulls will give up. Except for Cathy. This stock and her fund will go down in 2024.
short term: below the bear trend line is hell for bulls - if we bounce here, probably sideways till earnings between 167 - 180
medium-long term: down - what would change that? trading above 270 --unchanged outlook
tl;dr: do or die here at 170 for the bulls. If we break below the bear channel line, bulls covering will fuel this further. Strongly bearish.
Last week i wrote the following:
"bear case: Price action wise was this a wedge bear flag which broke down and now market will test 175 if there are more buyers than sellers. Not rocket science so far."
I still did not adjust my wave thesis since 2024-02-11. I added a sub w5 for the bigger w3 to make it clearer what i expect the next weeks.
bull case: Do or die here at 170. The bear channel has to hold or we will flush down to around 150. If bulls manage to hold 170, we could probably see sideways movement to the upper bear channel, where i expect stronger selling again. Bulls can probably only stall the market until next earnings 2024-04-17 and pray for a elon miracle.
bear case: Nothing bullish about this stock at all. Bears are in full control and selling everything. If they manage to break below the bear channel, the long covering will accelerate it to 150 but probably not much further before earnings. If earnings are as bad as i expect, the remaining die hard bulls will give up. Except for Cathy. This stock and her fund will go down in 2024.
short term: below the bear trend line is hell for bulls - if we bounce here, probably sideways till earnings between 167 - 180
medium-long term: down - what would change that? trading above 270 --unchanged outlook
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