TESLA - COMING EV BUBBLE CRASH? | FUTURE OF TESLA / MARKET RESET
Proposition:
Justification:
Aswath Damodaran:
- EV Stocks have exploded in value from all types and all countries in all sectors
- Tesla has been among them as the most explosive stock over the last year
- Price has inflated far more than the company has grown
- It is without a doubt that Tesla is a highly prosperous company and will continue being the leader in innovation and services so the long term forecast is bullish regardless
- However, there becomes a point where euphoria, hype and overbought territories are reached and breached
- As a result, I believe Tesla and the whole EV market along with the renewable market (solar and clean energy products and services) will pop and implode to a healthy level
Justification:
- I could not recommend Aswath "The Dean Of Valuation" Damodaran enough. He is a natural-born teacher, highly competent and knowledgeable individual on investing, valuation and finance
- He is a highly respectable, humble and intelligent person and his over 700 videos as well as numerous courses, are available for free to the public via youtube and his website
- I highly recommend his talks, videos and views with regards to markets, finance, investing and the likes
- Using his Tesla valuation model with a 0% probability of failure, his model outputs Tesla's fair valuation at ~$380
- Tesla's TTM P/E ratio is at absurd levels with its current value at 1160
- Price has distanced itself vastly with respect to the 200 WMA
- RSI has broken out of a triangle and look to continue its breakout downwards
- Stochastic levels look well-posed to reverse and cycle through to oversold levels on the weekly
- Volume price indicator shows most of the run-up has been unsustainable with little volume zones apart from all the way down to its base
- The fibonacci extension levels are in confluence with Mr Damodaran's valuation model and all of the above leads me to forecast future price to correct to $400-500 levels and potentially lower
Aswath Damodaran:
- Tesla Valuation + Spreadsheet: youtu.be/BVc6CfAjAbM
- Youtube: youtube.com/channel/UCLvnJL8htRR1T9cbSccaoVw
- Website: people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/home.htm
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