Long

TSLA quick one

Updated

If you wanted a long on TSLA, the 205-207 level would be one to watch for a hold, if it continues further down.

Note

Well, that went kinda picture perfect didn't it?

As long as that low holds, these would be the possibilities I see:

Mid-term Bullish

This would be just a corrective up with plenty room to the upside though.

Overall Bullish

An expanding leading diag, minimum target for wave 5 would be 340ish

Maximum bull 1-2 1-2. Not a huge fan of this, due to the length and depth of the second wave 2, but there it is for completeness sake

Mid-term Bearish (short-term bullish)

Bigger corrective, that's not done yet.

Mid-term / Overall Bearish

WXYXZ would be mid-term bearish and again a bigger corrective, that's not done yet.

Contracting diag would be overall bearish, with a maximum for wave 4 at 260ish.

Weirdo Bonus

I suppose this could still turn into an impulse down. I don't really want to spend time figuring out how that might fit overall, unless it happens, so again just for completeness sake and not my main pick.

Note

If it doesn't continue up from here or after a bit of a retracement, it could turn into a bigger sideways correction:

Note

Not saying it has to stop there, but premarket is currently at a point of interest for the finish of an impulse (green path of the previous update).

If it breaks through and holds though, we might be just in a wave 3 of a wave 3, so there'll be still some left to go in that case.

Note

Premarket sitting at an open gap.

If we're not in an extended 5th wave, then the most likely target for a full wave 3 would be around 260 for starters.

Note

Just a quick one here. The bearish possibility previously shown is still very much on the table and would work with the red count in the previous update:

It could still continue up with the yellow count shown in the previous update or turn into a different count that leads higher (higher degree yellow 3 of the previous update could be done and we're in a higher degree wave 4 or it could turn into a 1-2 1-2 situation).

Note

Until proven wrong, it'd be difficult for me to not see the move down as an impulse. So for the time being, even for the bullish case, I'd expect another low before new highs.

Most likely bullish case, assuming an impulse from the top:

And bearish cases fitting the image shown in the previous update - either a big C wave down to finish in orange - or an A-wave to start with in yellow:

So based on these, the next decent trade, if it finishes in a nice 3-wave move would be a short, either at 239ish or higher at another open gap on the 4h at 242-243.

Note

The mentioned 242-243 gave a great short entry. The sweep at open today is something to be anticipated: take out some stops and go, that's the playing field we are given...

Not going to make any big micro predictions here - it could be just a shallow correction,234-236 would be a first resistance zone on the upside, but gotta wait and see.

Note

Flipped the 234-236 to support for now, would look at 239-240 next

Note

The previously shown counts are still on the table and the move from the top still looks impulsive to me, but it's hard to ignore another possibility I haven't shown before, which would be this:

Note

With the high taken out, the impulse looking move from the last top can't really have been an impulse after all. So we adjust.

Two bullish scenarios:

1. The wave 5 option, that I showed 2 days ago before we got that move to a new local high:

There are multiple points where the 4 might've ended, giving different expectation for missing waves to finish on the lower timeframe.

Either way 256-260 would look like a decent zone for a finish. Above that ~270 has some confluence points.

2. The real bull

Instead of a triangle wave 4, this could also be seen as a complex sideways (second) wave 2. In that case we'd have a lot more left to go.

With the original 205-207 long, the trade is again at over 20%+ (Nothing wrong with already having at least taken partial profits though!)

The short at 242-243 also gave a nice 5% move, before going against the short bias.

Note

Nothing much to add, just that we did already touched the middle channel line yesterday for this scenario:

So for that scenario wave 5 could already be in a bit lower than predicted or there might be another push left getting us there.

Note

A bit of bull fodder from me today.

Seeing where we are in premarket and having the possibility of a finished impulse, I wouldn't exactly recommend blindly looking for longs here. In that case we'd likely only have begun correcting, possibly something like this:

With that out of the way though, here are two alternative bullish counts:

a) The impulse isn't done yet, we are still in the wave 4

b) Similar count as above for the possible sideways corrective, but even more bullish as a 1-2 1-2

Note

All three possibilities from the previous update still work.

On lower timeframe:

1)

This might just be the first leg of the correction

2)

Ending diagonale for wave 5

3)

Same as 2), but with the diag as the wave of 1 of wave 3

Note

Bonus bit:

4)

That doesn't add much to possible expectations, since it would be similar road as 2).

The information gain here is:
In case of 2) (ending diag wave 5), the subwaves would have to be (Multi-)Zigzags.
In case of 4) an Impulse or a whole new diag works.

So basically it can take any kind of route for the case of an yet unfished wave 5.

The other two general shown possibilities are still on the table though.

Note

While technically the other possibilities haven't been invalidated yet (there's just not much to add to them at this point):

Should it continue going further down from here, there is an open gap around the 50% retracement at 223$ - 225$.

There should have been some good profit in here following this analysis so far, primarily with the initial suggested long at 205$ - 207$.

I will keep updating this with the possibilities I see, but probably not as frequently as I have been in public (has been almost daily on this one!).

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Note

Sure looked like it wanted to get to that 223$ - 225$ zone, but got cut a bit short by the FED market reaction.

a)

Most bullish case would have this as a completed correction. If it offers a pullback before continuing, the previous resistance zone (240-247) would be one to watch for a hold.

b)

Alternatively the correction might not be done yet, but turn into a bigger sideways structure (multiple possibilities).

This will probably be my last update for the year, enjoy the holidays!

Note

Ok, guess I have one more update before the year ends.

a) and b) from the previous update are pretty much still on the table as previously shown:

a)

It already gave a reaction slightly above the mentioned 247$. In the case of this being a second 1-2, it could get down to the 240$-247$ zone once more.

b)

Same pattern basically with the possibility of revisiting 223$-230$ and maybe closing that open gap after all.

c)

One could argue a contracting diag at this point. This wouldn't change the levels to watch (see above), but it would allow for a correction to take quite a bit longer.

There are variations on the above. For example a running flat in a) might be already done or not go much deeper than the ~253$ low. If you want to be really bullish you could see the waves of c) as three seperate 1-2s - in that case you also wouldn't want to see it create much of a new low. Those as a small sidenote mention.

Note

We're closing in on b) from the previous update.

Since the original setup for this post played out, I made a fresh one for the next possible move here:

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