TSLA beginning another leg down SHORT
Updated
On the 15-minute chart, TSLA has been in a downtrend and for about one week, a correction
has been underway. Based on a Fibonacci analysis of the downtrend and and its retracement,
I do not believe that TSLA will breakthrough the fib level zone. The zero-lag MACD is showing
bearish divergence from the price action. In that consideration, I have held my put options
through this correction suffering unrealized losses but now look forward to another leg down.
Musk's recent court ruling nullifying his compensation package in federal court lends a bearish
perspective as does his distractions with the brain implant company which now has its first
patient ( FDA approved) and of course the space and tunnel companies. ( Autism and ADHD
can be a blessing and a curse at the same time - IMO) I am long LCID given its Saudi Arabian
support and growing production schedules supported by the SA plant. For now I am content
to short TSLA until the Meusk drama settles down and the watch to see if price lowering will
expand demand numbers et cetera.
has been underway. Based on a Fibonacci analysis of the downtrend and and its retracement,
I do not believe that TSLA will breakthrough the fib level zone. The zero-lag MACD is showing
bearish divergence from the price action. In that consideration, I have held my put options
through this correction suffering unrealized losses but now look forward to another leg down.
Musk's recent court ruling nullifying his compensation package in federal court lends a bearish
perspective as does his distractions with the brain implant company which now has its first
patient ( FDA approved) and of course the space and tunnel companies. ( Autism and ADHD
can be a blessing and a curse at the same time - IMO) I am long LCID given its Saudi Arabian
support and growing production schedules supported by the SA plant. For now I am content
to short TSLA until the Meusk drama settles down and the watch to see if price lowering will
expand demand numbers et cetera.
Trade active
Either TSLA went down today on its own with the Musk drama continuing orit got dragged down with tech earnings disappointments. QQQ maybe topped
out for now and looking to correct in the short term. Holding position. Tempted
to add another put if I do it will be for September 24 @ $180. Does anybody have
an opinion on that?
Trade active
More unrealized profit today as TSLA is sliding. The news is Musk is calling for a shareholder vote to move the incorporation of the company from Delaware to Texas more likely the shareholders will overwhelmingly vote for TX ( the home state of Gov Abbott) over DE ( the home state of Joe Biden) and time will tell if the CEO's compensation package gets repaired to comply with a court ruling.Trade active
Price benefitted today from the recent damage control and the general market recovery from a bad day. Holding no adds.Long view patience.Trade active
TSLA finishes out the week with more trimming of the market cap. Holding full position no partial closures to realize profit yet. C. Woods is buying her pockets are deep for sure.Trade active
Linked here is the one minute chart mark up with the projected trade for Monday the 5th depending on the premarket and general market- given the general market was up big and reversion to the mean expecting a fall and taking TSLA with it sorange of 187 to 183 ( 2% +/-)
Trade active
TSLA on 15 minute chart is currently range-bound between support trendline and a Fibonacci zone. As before for day trading purposes I see a trend down from
current level to 183 and then a reversal to a trend up into the Fibonacci zone about 188-190 I intend to trade it both ways - see this link
Trade active
TSLA fell well beyond my 183 target. Closing 5% of my puts to take that profit offthe position. Expecting a bounce may get one OTM call expiring 2/16 strike $190
Note
TSLA fell in concert with the general market a good demonstration of the value in following the relative strength of an instrument compared with the market at large and following NQ futures premarket.Note
Resistance for any bounce upside is now 183 at the prior support line and higherresistance at 191- so call option targets $190. large number of put options running
with various expirations between now and January 25.
Trade active
TSLA fell today and then recovered. The combination of a put option for $ 175 expiring 2/9 and then switching up at 10:55 for a call option OTM at $183, yielded10X= 1000% in 5 hours of trading. Right now on the one minute chart linked here price is in a descending parallel channel and currently at the upper boundary ofthe channel. The setup right now is short with a stop loss of $1-1.5 targets are
first the pivot low of today at 175.25 then 172 at the bottom of the channel and a runner for a channel break which will occur if there is more bad news or a fade in the general market. If a trader is into research, find the timeline of TSLA recalls, battery issues and trade-in values ( lack of depreciation) and whether they are holding up. see this link
Trade active
TSLA popped in an upside correction. Two OTM puts striking $175 from a current price of 185 got a better price on the jump.Note
Barron's · 2024/02/13 22:30 GMT-07:00Al Root
Tesla stock has been having a terrible start to the new year. Figuring out what has been driving shares can be difficult for investors. Figuring out why the shares have declined so much is a relatively easy task.
The answer lies in the wisdom of crowds. Look at Wall Street earnings estimates. They are the numerical reflection of all the news impacting any company -- Tesla included.
Coming into Wednesday, Tesla stock has fallen 26% this year while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have both risen about 4%. It's the worst start for Tesla shares since 2016 when they dropped almost 40% over a similar span to start that year.
The drop this year is steep, but the size of it makes a lot of sense. The current consensus call for Tesla's 2024 earnings per share is about $3.08, according to FactSet. The estimate started the year at about $3.84. Estimates have come down about 20%. The fall closely mirrors what Tesla stock has done within a few percentage points.
Looking back to October -- just before Tesla stock dropped 9.3% after the electric-vehicle company reported third-quarter earnings -- Wall Street's earnings estimate for 2024 was roughly $4.50 a share. The estimate is down about 30% since then. Tesla stock has fallen about 24% over the same span.
Analysts don't change just one estimate at a time. Wall Street's 2025 earnings estimates are down as well, roughly 20% lower since the start of the year. Taking a longer view, 2025 estimates peaked north of $8 a share in December 2022. They are down 50% since then to $4.23 a share. Tesla stock has fallen 55% from its all-time closing high of just under $410 a share reached in November 2021.
Estimate revisions are a useful tool for investors to check if stock moves make sense. When they line up -- as they have with Tesla lately -- it's a sign that investors are worried about company fundamentals. When revisions and the stock moves don't line up, it's a signal that something else is on investors' minds.
Remember Twitter? Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that he had made a bid for Twitter in April 2022. From that tweet, through the end of that year, Tesla stock dropped some 60%. Wall Street's estimates for 2023 earnings -- stocks always trade on future earnings -- rose from about $4.68 to $5.59 a share over the same span.
The divergence shows that Musk's Twitter distraction bothered Tesla investors. After those fears faded, Tesla stock doubled in 2023 despite vehicle price cuts and rising interest rates.
To be sure, estimate revisions can't do everything for investors. They can't tell them exactly what is going on at a company. There are many reasons Tesla's earnings estimates have been coming down. For starters, there are those price cuts that have hurt profit margins. And those higher interest rates have made all cars more expensive for buyers. There also is more EV competition around the globe and Tesla doesn't look like it will have a lower-priced model that can help expand its addressable market until 2025.
Those are some of the headwinds the company faces. Those headwinds have been evaluated by more than 40 analysts, resulting in lower earnings estimates. Investors have reacted to those reduced estimates by sending Tesla stock lower.
On a very basic level, that's how the stock market is supposed to work.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 14, 2024 05:30 ET (10:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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