TESLA BUY the Rumor Sell the Fact
Updated
TESLA is currently one of if not the Strongest Stock and is helping to hold up the Markets. Strong Move today on Lower Volume. I believe that the Rally is close to wrapping up at this stage of the "Mark-UP" *Wyckoff Distribution"
I can see Possible Bullish Continuation through Wednesday.
Technicals/Indicators/Patterns:
$200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets too ..
-^Bullish double bottom pattern places TSLA move to $220 area
-^Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side
BEARISH:
-Bearish Rising Wedge on Daily- if pattern completes, measured move will go to fill gap @ $147.61
--Bearish Divergences are formed on lower time frames (4hr-1hr)
-Daily Bearish Divergences are looking to follow suit
-OBV & Momentum indicators are diverging to the negative (OBV is High but Momentum is contrary)
-Price has been moving down but A/D Line continues rising *I analyze this as Higher Distribution
_____________________________
-***TIME FRAME: Analyzing consolidation patterns and impulse moves (Mark-UP) - I am seeing Consolidation on average of 25-27 days and Impulse Moves lasting 14 days
*Tesla is going to hit 27 days of consolidation on Wednesday I can foresee the Markdown Phase Beginning for 2 weeks and moving into consolidation until before next earnings in April before the Next Mark-UP
This aligns up with Seasonal Market Trends (Bullish in Jan - Decline mid Feb to mid March)
-
Options
Current Options info: *$200 Call Option Wall
-Contrarian view is that with High Call Options @ $200 price will close below that by end of week (Market Makers do not want to pay-out) Max-Pain is currently at 197.5
-Bullish view: amount of options could create a "Gamma Squeeze" -Squeezing Tesla to test or surpass Highs in the short-term, ***Short-term pump & Dump
Weekly Expected Move: $215 High $197 Low
Positives:
-Investor Day is Hyping up the bullish trend as everyone is preparing for Elon to showcase "GEN 3" platform -a new commodity vehicle for $25-30k before mark-up. This has retail piling into TSLA stock with an enormous $200 call Option wall again..
-Berlin Higher production levels
--QQQ Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side - Help to continue Rally
Analysis: Short-Term Neutral/Bearish (Long-Term Bullish)
My bias is Bearish with a possible pump & dump scenario in play ...
$200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets to .. If Tuesday shows strong Commitment and closes at the highs.. We could see Bullish continuation to $234.
Tomorrow is VERY CRITICAL - Monthly close above $200 shows strong buyer commitment - if there is a sell-off and we see a close below $197, I feel confident that Tsla will retrace to $145 area to fill gap (0.618 retracement)
Tsla Closing strong tomorrow will lead me to believe that consolidation may continue through next week until we get March Payroll Data (this puts my target price to $232-$234 before we see "Mark-Down"
*watch how TSLA reacts to Weekly Expected high at $215 area
-I am staying away from Options except for "Day-Of"
-Day Trading has been exceptional - waiting 15min after market open has proved beneficial
I can see Possible Bullish Continuation through Wednesday.
Technicals/Indicators/Patterns:
$200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets too ..
-^Bullish double bottom pattern places TSLA move to $220 area
-^Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side
BEARISH:
-Bearish Rising Wedge on Daily- if pattern completes, measured move will go to fill gap @ $147.61
--Bearish Divergences are formed on lower time frames (4hr-1hr)
-Daily Bearish Divergences are looking to follow suit
-OBV & Momentum indicators are diverging to the negative (OBV is High but Momentum is contrary)
-Price has been moving down but A/D Line continues rising *I analyze this as Higher Distribution
_____________________________
-***TIME FRAME: Analyzing consolidation patterns and impulse moves (Mark-UP) - I am seeing Consolidation on average of 25-27 days and Impulse Moves lasting 14 days
*Tesla is going to hit 27 days of consolidation on Wednesday I can foresee the Markdown Phase Beginning for 2 weeks and moving into consolidation until before next earnings in April before the Next Mark-UP
This aligns up with Seasonal Market Trends (Bullish in Jan - Decline mid Feb to mid March)
-
Options
Current Options info: *$200 Call Option Wall
-Contrarian view is that with High Call Options @ $200 price will close below that by end of week (Market Makers do not want to pay-out) Max-Pain is currently at 197.5
-Bullish view: amount of options could create a "Gamma Squeeze" -Squeezing Tesla to test or surpass Highs in the short-term, ***Short-term pump & Dump
Weekly Expected Move: $215 High $197 Low
Positives:
-Investor Day is Hyping up the bullish trend as everyone is preparing for Elon to showcase "GEN 3" platform -a new commodity vehicle for $25-30k before mark-up. This has retail piling into TSLA stock with an enormous $200 call Option wall again..
-Berlin Higher production levels
--QQQ Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side - Help to continue Rally
Analysis: Short-Term Neutral/Bearish (Long-Term Bullish)
My bias is Bearish with a possible pump & dump scenario in play ...
$200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets to .. If Tuesday shows strong Commitment and closes at the highs.. We could see Bullish continuation to $234.
Tomorrow is VERY CRITICAL - Monthly close above $200 shows strong buyer commitment - if there is a sell-off and we see a close below $197, I feel confident that Tsla will retrace to $145 area to fill gap (0.618 retracement)
Tsla Closing strong tomorrow will lead me to believe that consolidation may continue through next week until we get March Payroll Data (this puts my target price to $232-$234 before we see "Mark-Down"
*watch how TSLA reacts to Weekly Expected high at $215 area
-I am staying away from Options except for "Day-Of"
-Day Trading has been exceptional - waiting 15min after market open has proved beneficial
Note
Good morning - pre-market TSLA is gapping above resistance, options gamma squeeze could be in play.. along with Investors Day Hype. If TSLA does not break below pre-market low ($210.5) this could go for the 200 daily MA & .382 fib ($221.5) coincidence that they happen to align up perfectly today?..LOL Pay attention on how It reaction at these key levels:
* $212.8-$214 Left Shoulder High & Weekly Expected Move Big selling could indicate weakness or possible hype Rally
* $217.65 previous High
*221.5 200 ma & Fib
Bulls: Keep above $210 & don't fill morning gap - Big Volume followed by slow & continuous upside will show True buyer conviction Todays Target is $221.5 (7%move)
Bears: minimum Keep Tsla below $214 Fill Gap at $207.82 *Push Price Below $197.08 (7% move at current pre-market price of $211.7)
7% moves from Bulls and Bears...hmm Coincidence? LOL Good luck all
Note
Bears are loosing the Monthly Candle * New High with Close above $198 -Bulls need to close above 208.29 (previous Monthly Closing Support -now resistance) or best if Bulls can close above $209.70 0.5 retracement from Previous Top
Note
My Kangaroo Bearish Schematics on How Market Makers will Trick Retail.. yeah, I'm Still Bearish until I see other-wise Hope you find this entertaining:Trade active
The Bulls have an agenda - Get TSLA to new Highs. They may try to Gap up again to trigger stop-loss shorts and fuel a short-squeeze rally
There are several Bullish/Neutral Patterns on the small time frame that give bulls a strong opportunity to make that happen today. Especially since it is investors day
Break above $209.50 should ease the resistance at $211.44 and trigger Diamond bullish break to new highs and coincidentally can play-out the double break-out pattern to the 200 MA.
Note
Well.. Investor Day has not excited investors yet.. .."I knew I Should of Sold all my shares @$210... lol just kidding, I am a TSLA Bull for the Long term. I hope I can Get more shares in the $125-$150 range --overall Market will intensify Tsla's next moves *TSLA (& NVDA)have been shouldering the SPX & NDX Through February, I worry for markets if TSLA sells off. ...again, event is not over.. I will try to create a new chart for "POST Investor Day: Analysis later. * ...I think markets want to bounce tomorrow*after-hours TSLA is below POC $197 .. but has not broken $192 support
Note
Well.. Investor Day has not excited investors yet.. .."I knew I Should of Sold all my shares @$210... lol just kidding, I am a TSLA Bull for the Long term. I hope I can Get more shares in the $125-$150 range --overall Market will intensify Tsla's next moves *TSLA (& NVDA)have been shouldering the SPX & NDX Through February, I worry for markets if TSLA sells off. ...again, event is not over.. I will try to create a new chart for "POST Investor Day: Analysis later. * ...I think markets want to bounce tomorrow*after-hours TSLA is below POC $197 .. but has not broken $192 support
I just covered my Shorts @ $196.4
I'm still holding 1/3 of my shares: $128 cost -
see you in the am
Note
It looks like the confluence of date ranges are playing out - next 14 days should be Mark-Down Phase
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