$TTD to go below $60
- Investors were paying too much for growth in 
TTD
- It operates in a very competitive space.
- Leadership is solid however eps growth and gaap eps tells a different story. EPS growth is impressive but gaap eps is terrible. Stock based comp remain consistent but somehow gaap eps isn't growing as fast as non-gaap eps.
- Nonetheless, here's fair value forTTD
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 1.79 | 2.21 | 2.85 | 3.89
EPS growth | 9.54% | 23.13% | 28.92% | 36.66%
For eps growth of 20%+ and company with a moat. Fair forward EPS is 30
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Bear Case ( p/e 20 ) | $35 | $44 | $57 | $77
Base Case (p/e 30 ) | $53.7 | $66.3 | 85.5 | $116
Bull Case (p/e 35 ) | $62 | $77 | $99 | $136
Idea is to buy close to fair value and hold it for period when there is optimism in the market or euphoria and/or valuation expansion where stock is assigned higher forward p/e multiple.
For me,TTD is a buy under $65. However, I have started with a starter position at 80s because you many times good stocks bottom above its fair value.
I plan to build a position in increments because you never know how much stock will undercut on pessimism. However, the above intrinsic value based on EPS should help to identify the ranges
TTD- It operates in a very competitive space.
- Leadership is solid however eps growth and gaap eps tells a different story. EPS growth is impressive but gaap eps is terrible. Stock based comp remain consistent but somehow gaap eps isn't growing as fast as non-gaap eps.
- Nonetheless, here's fair value for
TTDYear | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 1.79 | 2.21 | 2.85 | 3.89
EPS growth | 9.54% | 23.13% | 28.92% | 36.66%
For eps growth of 20%+ and company with a moat. Fair forward EPS is 30
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Bear Case ( p/e 20 ) | $35 | $44 | $57 | $77
Base Case (p/e 30 ) | $53.7 | $66.3 | 85.5 | $116
Bull Case (p/e 35 ) | $62 | $77 | $99 | $136
Idea is to buy close to fair value and hold it for period when there is optimism in the market or euphoria and/or valuation expansion where stock is assigned higher forward p/e multiple.
For me,
TTD is a buy under $65. However, I have started with a starter position at 80s because you many times good stocks bottom above its fair value. I plan to build a position in increments because you never know how much stock will undercut on pessimism. However, the above intrinsic value based on EPS should help to identify the ranges
Note
*Fair forward p/e ( not eps)
there was a typo
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.