Ever since they took TVIX out of the picture the volatility favorite has been sinking harder than the Titanic. Not like it wasn't already sinking. Since reaching astronomical heights in March, TVIX gains have been getting smaller and smaller every time. Now it seems like this favorite is close to a viagra shot. Its hard to tell where this shot would go though and other factors need to be on TVIX's side in order to score a win. Expectations of a mid-month dip are high as the pattern has been proven consistent for a while, but could this one be late? Could we not get a correction until the week of the 17th or even the 24th? Its all fair game when the overlords hit the button and they will find any way to stop a large correction from occurring whether it's sending out more COVID vaccine news or throwing the stimulus bill in the mix.

Talks have been unproductive as President Trump decided to push executive orders to extend benefits until congress can find its way out of gridlock. He already knows his reelection chances are waning and the desperate move might move the markets a bit more, but an actual agreement in congress would help it rocket further up its 5-month overbought state.

Now TVIX technically is not in the books as it was decommissioned July 12, the day before another strong upshot came around. However TVIX 2.0 is taking its sweet ass time to get here (Gee...I wonder why?). In the meantime, TVIX can be purchased OTC under TVIXF for those that want to gamble with an uncertain gridlock in Washington. The markets have shown a lot of uncertainty with both the selling and buying end. Experienced traders are becoming more cautious not to buy too far in until major milestones are cleared.

Until then, we have to wonder what TVIX has up its sleeve? It still has enough liquidity in it to play, but can become riskier the lower it goes. However, as we know, the market rewards risk-takers, but turns right back around and punishes them as well.
stimulusTrend AnalysisTVIXTVIXFVIX CBOE Volatility Index

Disclaimer