TWTR Long on falling wedge (REVISED)
The market getting hammered kept my expected pop-and-drop scenario from coming into play. We are still respecting the boundaries of the wedge, and we're hovering right around that 40.80 congestion level from Dec '13.
I maintain that the falling wedge will resolve the last week of Apr--coincidentally enough, right at earnings. The funnymentalists are going to thank the Earnings Gods for making it rain, but we know better.
If the projection is good and we're sitting below 40.80, expect a pop back up to that level before earnings (taking us out of the wedge) and then a major jump to ~45. We have a tiny bit of room to move below the 38.78 support line and still maintain the boundaries of our wedge before 4/29, so I wouldn't be too concerned unless we break below 38.78 *and* below the wedge--in that case, expect the bottom to fall out with earnings, as we have no support.
If you're going to make a play with options, I would recommend May or June 40 strike purchased on 4/18 or 4/21 to allow the wedge to run a little bit lower but to get in before any Wall Street earnings projection. Calculate your stop for below 36.50 at the absolute lowest, as that's the very tip of the wedge.
I maintain that the falling wedge will resolve the last week of Apr--coincidentally enough, right at earnings. The funnymentalists are going to thank the Earnings Gods for making it rain, but we know better.
If the projection is good and we're sitting below 40.80, expect a pop back up to that level before earnings (taking us out of the wedge) and then a major jump to ~45. We have a tiny bit of room to move below the 38.78 support line and still maintain the boundaries of our wedge before 4/29, so I wouldn't be too concerned unless we break below 38.78 *and* below the wedge--in that case, expect the bottom to fall out with earnings, as we have no support.
If you're going to make a play with options, I would recommend May or June 40 strike purchased on 4/18 or 4/21 to allow the wedge to run a little bit lower but to get in before any Wall Street earnings projection. Calculate your stop for below 36.50 at the absolute lowest, as that's the very tip of the wedge.
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