Slowly starting to scale in on OIL
Updated
The fundamental outlook for oil is looking bullish. Despite seasonality favoring lower crude oil prices towards the end of the year, the conflicts in the Middle East are pushing prices higher.
Technically, the downward move that has been in place since the beginning of July could now experience a correction. Therefore, I’ll begin slowly scaling into oil at the 61.8% retracement level, keeping in mind that prices could drop further before the end of the year.
According to seasonality, we could see the high in oil prices around May 2025.
Let’s see how it plays out.
Technically, the downward move that has been in place since the beginning of July could now experience a correction. Therefore, I’ll begin slowly scaling into oil at the 61.8% retracement level, keeping in mind that prices could drop further before the end of the year.
According to seasonality, we could see the high in oil prices around May 2025.
Let’s see how it plays out.
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Macro View – Weekly Timeframe:
I can envision this scenario playing out, but there’s also the possibility of a re-test at the bottom of the channel. Prices dropping below $23.00 USD would invalidate this idea.
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The same view on the Crude Oil futures 
CL1! looks something like this:
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The chart of CL1! (Crude Oil Futures) previously suggested a potential head and shoulders pattern, indicating a possible bearish reversal. However, recent price movements have invalidated this formation, alleviating earlier concerns. The price has surpassed the neckline resistance, suggesting continued bullish momentum.
For a visual representation, please refer to the chart:
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