UNG ETF for NATURAL GAS - READ THE NOTES IMPORTANT
Now Nat Gas is trading for $2.3 per BTU
In Europe it sells much higher between $70 and $100 per BTU
The Biden Administration over regulated the Nat Gas industry in the USA, and many users of the commodity switched to other fuels like Coal for example and Solar and Wind. Ineficient.
NAT GAS coupled with Scrubbing Technology is litterally 99.9% clean. Dipnts makes great scrubbers.
Now Nat Gas moves in four year cycles, well as you can see when Biden took office it was operating normally at $130 for the UNG.
Finnaly everyone realized that NAT GAs from America is the way to go.
One Liquified Gas Tanker per month keeps the lights on in London.
Gas then is obviously the way to go, not wind nor solar.
EEUU had been supplied by Iran through QATAR, this is theoretical but super likely. Trump will reopen our energy industry, but the damage the Biden White House made is expensive. We could be facing shortages, as gas storage deposit have been partially depleted. and Production costs are indeed $7 per BTU at $7 UNG should trade at the conversion near $130 more or less. please do your own work and be diligent.
User of nat gas are looking at the situation and will use likely UNG as a hedge.
I bought some and maybe you should too. This is not financial advise, as you all understand we post to participate together in addressing capital allocation and solving future needs. In this case hedging against volatility.
In Europe it sells much higher between $70 and $100 per BTU
The Biden Administration over regulated the Nat Gas industry in the USA, and many users of the commodity switched to other fuels like Coal for example and Solar and Wind. Ineficient.
NAT GAS coupled with Scrubbing Technology is litterally 99.9% clean. Dipnts makes great scrubbers.
Now Nat Gas moves in four year cycles, well as you can see when Biden took office it was operating normally at $130 for the UNG.
Finnaly everyone realized that NAT GAs from America is the way to go.
One Liquified Gas Tanker per month keeps the lights on in London.
Gas then is obviously the way to go, not wind nor solar.
EEUU had been supplied by Iran through QATAR, this is theoretical but super likely. Trump will reopen our energy industry, but the damage the Biden White House made is expensive. We could be facing shortages, as gas storage deposit have been partially depleted. and Production costs are indeed $7 per BTU at $7 UNG should trade at the conversion near $130 more or less. please do your own work and be diligent.
User of nat gas are looking at the situation and will use likely UNG as a hedge.
I bought some and maybe you should too. This is not financial advise, as you all understand we post to participate together in addressing capital allocation and solving future needs. In this case hedging against volatility.
Note
this article could be useful to undersand more about NAT GAS
oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Winters-Chill-Exposes-Cracks-in-US-Gas-Market.html
Note
AI also needs massive amounts of NAT GAS and so do TeslasNote
Electric transport is anticipated to required 3X our current electric generation. and yes, there are new nuclear reactors that are smaller and safer, but Nat Gas is so abundant and so cheap it is criminal to look at other technologies. Note
To calculate the price change in UNG per dollar move in natural gas, we'll use the given information:
UNG price on 11/16/2024: $12.84
UNG price on 11/20/2024: $14.73
Natural gas price on 11/16/2024: 1.92/MMBtu
Natural gas price on 11/20/2024: 2.10/MMBtu
Change in UNG price: $14.73 - $12.84 = $1.89
Change in natural gas price: $2.10 - $1.92 = 0.18/MMBtu
Price change ratio: $1.89 / $0.18 = $10.50
Therefore, for each $1 move in natural gas prices, UNG changed by approximately $10.50.
today Nat Gas is at $2.10 per BTU, I calculated that the break even price cost of production in America is circe $7 per BTU , now we are then $5 away from break even, ass prift margin at $4 and that is a total of $9 per BTU north. that means the EFT has $94 to go, plus the current $14. and We see $108 in the horizon. This is real money.
Note
one MMBtu is huge volume. so affecting prices for heating, unlikely - the commodity is way way too cheap. Biden, forced many energy users to transition to solar and wind and coal and abandon Nat Gas. A ridiculous endeavour, when we have sooooo sooo much gas to light the entire world if we want to. and to generate electricity add a scrubber and it is 100% clean. Trump is right we have been fleeced these last 4 years, an outrage. Anyhow, here we are, with gaseous gold about to be freed. Note
By the way - nat gas is soo soo cheap that manufacturers should be giddy and happy and start using it when these crazy regulations are removed. Trade active
NATURAL GAS - tradable through the UNG Etf....
Current Natural Gas Breakeven Price and Infrastructure Challenges
The breakeven price for natural gas production in the United States is currently estimated at $13.50 per MMBtu. This high breakeven point is largely attributed to neglected infrastructure that has seen little investment since 2020. As a result, many producers are struggling to maintain profitability amid fluctuating market prices.Infrastructure Investment and Market Dynamics
Since 2020, the natural gas sector has faced significant challenges, including a lack of investment in infrastructure, which has hindered production efficiency and capacity expansion. The combination of low prices and high operational costs has forced many companies to cut back on drilling and production, leading to a precarious balance between supply and demand.
Monthly Consumption Averages
The average monthly consumption of natural gas in the U.S. varies seasonally:
January: 3.0 Tcf
February: 2.8 Tcf
March: 2.5 Tcf
April: 2.2 Tcf
May: 2.1 Tcf
June: 2.3 Tcf
July: 2.7 Tcf
August: 2.8 Tcf
September: 2.5 Tcf
October: 2.6 Tcf
November: 2.9 Tcf
December: 3.1 Tcf
Trajectory of Gas in Storage
Natural gas storage levels typically decline during high-demand winter months and increase during shoulder seasons:In winter, storage can decline by approximately 10% to 20%, while summer injections can replenish about 15% to 25% of storage capacity.
Demand Trends
Natural gas demand is expected to rise due to increasing reliance on gas for heating and electricity generation, particularly as AI technologies expand energy needs.
Conclusion and Predictive Tendencies
Given the current breakeven price of $13.50 per MMBtu and ongoing infrastructure challenges, the natural gas market faces significant pressures. Producers are likely to continue reducing output unless prices recover significantly above current levels, which have recently averaged around $2.35 per MMBtu.
Predictive models suggest that unless there are substantial investments in infrastructure or a significant increase in natural gas prices, production may not keep pace with rising demand. This could lead to tighter supply conditions and potentially higher prices in the future as companies adjust their operations to align with market realities. The focus on LNG exports may provide some relief, but sustained investment will be crucial for long-term stability in the natural gas sector.
Note
The new break even price, includes capital investment necessary to resume production of natural gas, due to neglected investment in the segment's infrastructure. Why this happened, squarely the Biden Energy Policies...
Now, under the new administration, after the creation of massive incentives for companies to relocate back to america, natural gas presents a compelling inducement with energy super cheap and extremely abundant that by the way is the cleanest energy for electric generation there is. Coupled with scrubbing technology to filter emission, this form of energy is 99.99% clean, cleaner that solar wind coal and nuclear. Nuclear requires cement and cement produces CO2 when curing solid.
America has such vasts deposits of Natural Gas, and the price and technology supporting Natural Gas as the best fuel available, is a fools proof choice, and in my opinion, anyone dismissing this undeniable truth is commiting fraud.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.