SPHealth 2 Week Comparisons (Oct 7-20 2020)
SPHealth - Growth Analysis & Comparison - Cindicator Poll Submission (October 7th - 20th 2020)
I've been looking through my Cindicator questions, making forecasts and watching markets as new polls pop up. Here's a comparison chart for 5 major S&P health companies and my rankings forecast.
(Descending order from most growth to least)
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
This forecast will be explicitly graded by total growth % comparisons of opening prices on October 7th to closing prices on October 20th across the 5 aforementioned companies.
As of right now before 10-9-20 daily market open, the percentage growth is as follows:
UNH +1.9%
PFE +1.87%
JNJ +1.56%
ABT +1.1%
MRK +0.54%
When looking at a specific metric within the already completed duration since I submitted my forecast, overall recent growth is:
UNH +2.82%
PFE +2.66%
JNJ +2.24%
MRK +2.22%
ABT +1.62%
10-9-20 Forecast Adjustments:
Now that I have seen the last 2 days play out, I'm starting to notice a couple things about my forecast and actual live value.
I'm confident that United Health will still outperform, but this outlook could change if any major market sell off occurs before the 20th. Pfizer looks like it could be a strong runner up, and I may have flubbed my original forecast by ranking it 4th in growth. Johnson & Johnson is performing approximately as expected. Merck and Abbott Labs could be tricky to pinpoint exactly without some further research and analysis but, I'm guessing that Abbott may come in 4th place if everything settles after any quick rallies that should happen. If a light pump in Merck occurs over the 19th-20th, then there could be a small chance it outperforms Abbott for 4th but it feels like an unlikely scenario.
After these deliberations, I've decided my forecast doesn't need much adjusting other than to swap the placement of Pfizer and Abbott. My updated forecast is as follows:
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
One thing to note is that I believe TradingView is not calculating its percentage scale correctly, its placing the 0% Y axis at the close value of the first candle used to calculate growth. So this graph is really just more for me to check my own work by hand, as the percentages on the left will not accurately portray what is actually being graded by Cindicator.
I'll check back in after the 20th to see how this turned out!
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
I've been looking through my Cindicator questions, making forecasts and watching markets as new polls pop up. Here's a comparison chart for 5 major S&P health companies and my rankings forecast.
(Descending order from most growth to least)
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
This forecast will be explicitly graded by total growth % comparisons of opening prices on October 7th to closing prices on October 20th across the 5 aforementioned companies.
As of right now before 10-9-20 daily market open, the percentage growth is as follows:
UNH +1.9%
PFE +1.87%
JNJ +1.56%
ABT +1.1%
MRK +0.54%
When looking at a specific metric within the already completed duration since I submitted my forecast, overall recent growth is:
UNH +2.82%
PFE +2.66%
JNJ +2.24%
MRK +2.22%
ABT +1.62%
10-9-20 Forecast Adjustments:
Now that I have seen the last 2 days play out, I'm starting to notice a couple things about my forecast and actual live value.
I'm confident that United Health will still outperform, but this outlook could change if any major market sell off occurs before the 20th. Pfizer looks like it could be a strong runner up, and I may have flubbed my original forecast by ranking it 4th in growth. Johnson & Johnson is performing approximately as expected. Merck and Abbott Labs could be tricky to pinpoint exactly without some further research and analysis but, I'm guessing that Abbott may come in 4th place if everything settles after any quick rallies that should happen. If a light pump in Merck occurs over the 19th-20th, then there could be a small chance it outperforms Abbott for 4th but it feels like an unlikely scenario.
After these deliberations, I've decided my forecast doesn't need much adjusting other than to swap the placement of Pfizer and Abbott. My updated forecast is as follows:
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
One thing to note is that I believe TradingView is not calculating its percentage scale correctly, its placing the 0% Y axis at the close value of the first candle used to calculate growth. So this graph is really just more for me to check my own work by hand, as the percentages on the left will not accurately portray what is actually being graded by Cindicator.
I'll check back in after the 20th to see how this turned out!
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
Disclaimer
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