UPL :: Turning around to (Agrow)Chemical Stock?
Updated
- It's been decades we have seen that AgriCulture is contributing almost about 18-20% in India's GDP growth yet this sector remains to be more politically inclined to their specific actions during major elections.
- GDP contribution by Top 3 sectors:
Agriculture: 18.4%
Industry: 28.3%
Services: 53.3%
-
UPL is one of the top 5 global providers of total agricultural solutions with a footprint in 138+ countries.
Going by the current situation we see the following observations -
1) Script is trading at a Money-based range dating back to the pandemic lows after hitting 52W Lows due to global headwinds.
2) After a stellar doubler move from Dec'20 to May'21 the script delivered almost more than 100% return to its investors and eventually we see a exhaustion after an eventual double top like pattern with a neckline candle marked in a red zone.
3) Interestingly, you see a SWAP LEVEL marked to denote the beautiful Yearly Low of 2021 being protected for next 2yrs and finally breaks down nearing ending of 2022 while being in a range of 200p within the red zone and swap level for that existing period.
4) While, we talked about price action in the previous point we missed out the lethal info being nudged in by our FUNDFLUX tool which showed consistent outflow of money in first 2Q's of 2022 before it out the swap level in Q3 of 2022.
5) What happens next will make you understand why we call the marked blue dotted line as the "Swap level" as after the breakdown we see a retest of the same level now turning out to be a resistance for script and eventually the Yearly Pivot Level of 2024.
6) Now, currently the script trades in a good money-based range eventually dodging out YL4 breakdown and here the risk seems to be minimum as per the return is concerned as after 510-520 the script will be ripped for 640-650 initial target making a return of 30-35% in cash from entry being in the marked money-based green range and it can be in news in this quarter as elections are nearing and as said in the beginning - "AgriCulture" will be on one of the top agendas of the political parties and alongside if we see a relief from destocking and price revisions in the West after the much anticipated rate cuts then it will be an icing on the cake for the script as margins will improve in the coming quarterly results and lastly monsoon season is about to begin in India in a month and till now SKYMETexpects Monsoon to be 'normal' in India.
A RELEVANT ARTICLE -
livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/upl-share-price-slumps-9-to-touch-a-52-week-low-on-dismal-q3-results-brokerages-downgrade-stock-cuts-target-price-11707116336923.html
- GDP contribution by Top 3 sectors:
Agriculture: 18.4%
Industry: 28.3%
Services: 53.3%
-
UPL is one of the top 5 global providers of total agricultural solutions with a footprint in 138+ countries.Going by the current situation we see the following observations -
1) Script is trading at a Money-based range dating back to the pandemic lows after hitting 52W Lows due to global headwinds.
2) After a stellar doubler move from Dec'20 to May'21 the script delivered almost more than 100% return to its investors and eventually we see a exhaustion after an eventual double top like pattern with a neckline candle marked in a red zone.
3) Interestingly, you see a SWAP LEVEL marked to denote the beautiful Yearly Low of 2021 being protected for next 2yrs and finally breaks down nearing ending of 2022 while being in a range of 200p within the red zone and swap level for that existing period.
4) While, we talked about price action in the previous point we missed out the lethal info being nudged in by our FUNDFLUX tool which showed consistent outflow of money in first 2Q's of 2022 before it out the swap level in Q3 of 2022.
5) What happens next will make you understand why we call the marked blue dotted line as the "Swap level" as after the breakdown we see a retest of the same level now turning out to be a resistance for script and eventually the Yearly Pivot Level of 2024.
6) Now, currently the script trades in a good money-based range eventually dodging out YL4 breakdown and here the risk seems to be minimum as per the return is concerned as after 510-520 the script will be ripped for 640-650 initial target making a return of 30-35% in cash from entry being in the marked money-based green range and it can be in news in this quarter as elections are nearing and as said in the beginning - "AgriCulture" will be on one of the top agendas of the political parties and alongside if we see a relief from destocking and price revisions in the West after the much anticipated rate cuts then it will be an icing on the cake for the script as margins will improve in the coming quarterly results and lastly monsoon season is about to begin in India in a month and till now SKYMETexpects Monsoon to be 'normal' in India.
A RELEVANT ARTICLE -
livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/upl-share-price-slumps-9-to-touch-a-52-week-low-on-dismal-q3-results-brokerages-downgrade-stock-cuts-target-price-11707116336923.html
Note
Script running with ~25.76% positional gains!!
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