Rate Cuts Are NOT Bullish
Rate cuts in the US have never been bullish for equity markets in macro cycles. The idea that rates coming down from 5% to 4% suddenly making people more creditworthy is a farce because rates never move in anything other than large timeframe tides. These tides reflect growth/inflation expectations, not borrowing costs.
Were Jerome Powell to suddenly become very dovish at the next FOMC meeting it would be a clear signal that the SHTF protocol is in full effect. Powell is more likely to talk away the negative GDP prints as demand shocks due to tariffs/trade deficit imbalances while waiting for more data to make a decision. Labor market has been declining as well but he doesn't want to make a panic decision and also probably feels no personal loyalty to help President Trump out.
Historical average for US inflation is about 3.2% with the 2% target meaning deflation is a possible problem incoming. Current US inflation rate is about 3% which is well inline with the historical average. Powell will never say it but so far his mission has been accomplished. He may cut rates at the back end of the year if necessary but as of this post he has no reason to.
Were Jerome Powell to suddenly become very dovish at the next FOMC meeting it would be a clear signal that the SHTF protocol is in full effect. Powell is more likely to talk away the negative GDP prints as demand shocks due to tariffs/trade deficit imbalances while waiting for more data to make a decision. Labor market has been declining as well but he doesn't want to make a panic decision and also probably feels no personal loyalty to help President Trump out.
Historical average for US inflation is about 3.2% with the 2% target meaning deflation is a possible problem incoming. Current US inflation rate is about 3% which is well inline with the historical average. Powell will never say it but so far his mission has been accomplished. He may cut rates at the back end of the year if necessary but as of this post he has no reason to.
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You either make models, or you date them
#GameIsGame
#GameIsGame
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.