3 Month/ 10 Year Yield Inversions and Corresponding Market Tops
Since at least 1990, whenever the 3month U.S. Government Bond Yield has risen higher than the 10year Bond, the market top on SPX occurs a short time later. Also, in most cases, whenever the 10year yield has hit the magenta trendline, a 3mo/10yr inversion results within 6-12 months. The 10 year yield is currently above the trendline, implying that we could be 6 to 18 months from an inversion and corresponding stock market top, after which a selloff or recession ensues.
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