Macro - Reading The Curve
Updated
Forecast for Macro:
- Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested.
- Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations:
- 2x ATR spike in US02Y:
- The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y.
- Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish:
- However, this will be followed by a steepener, respecting the Falling Wedge Breakout, as the Fed implements monetary policies to control Deflation, creating a Stagflation environment.
- US30Y, this is bearish and deflationary:
- USOIL, deflationary. The US economy depends on Oil:
- US Manufacturing Employment Index, looks to be at the top of the range, and on a decline:
- Capital goods are the heart of every economy. Without manufacturing employment, no capital goods. No capital goods, no innovation.
- CN30Y, also bearish and deflationary:
- China's Credit Impulse, and consequently - global credit impulse turns negative.
- No more credit flows means no more liquidity to flow into risk assets.
- M2V declining, if the economy was booming and growing, money velocity should be increasing:
- Business destruction cannot be inflationary. Thriving tech businesses lead the recovery, but Tech is inherently deflationary.
- Reading the curve will be critical to see the macro turns coming!
GLHF
- DPT
- Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested.
- Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations:
- 2x ATR spike in US02Y:
- The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y.
- Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish:
- However, this will be followed by a steepener, respecting the Falling Wedge Breakout, as the Fed implements monetary policies to control Deflation, creating a Stagflation environment.
- US30Y, this is bearish and deflationary:
- USOIL, deflationary. The US economy depends on Oil:
- US Manufacturing Employment Index, looks to be at the top of the range, and on a decline:
- Capital goods are the heart of every economy. Without manufacturing employment, no capital goods. No capital goods, no innovation.
- CN30Y, also bearish and deflationary:
- China's Credit Impulse, and consequently - global credit impulse turns negative.
- No more credit flows means no more liquidity to flow into risk assets.
- M2V declining, if the economy was booming and growing, money velocity should be increasing:
- Business destruction cannot be inflationary. Thriving tech businesses lead the recovery, but Tech is inherently deflationary.
- Reading the curve will be critical to see the macro turns coming!
GLHF
- DPT
Trade active
I said it will drop to 0.2-0.3, watching for continued decline: 
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