4H trend bullish
180 m bullish
120 min. bullish
30 min bullish
Strategy Short Bearish
Reasons:
Although during the last days the short term trend turned green, we stay confident an continue with our Selling strategy
The last 3 days spike has some fundamenal reasons:
Israel war: Israel has huge amounts of Financial reserves. The youngest attacks on Israel caused the pressure of Shekel, so the Cetral Bank of Israel started to sell US Dollar to also fund the economic and war economic ressources.. That caused short term selling of the US Dollar
Fundamental reason are bearish, also the fear of possible middle east extentions caused FED to possible pause the rate hikes. The FED rates sentiment is not changed for November, but changing slowly for December.
This condition can be changed.
The last spike was caused by Tech stocks,insider buys. The pci was bearish, todays ppi will show more details.
Fundamental reason 2: The gap below 14500is not filled(Very important)
More importantly The volume profiles of the last days are all Bearish and signalized Bulltraps. Also yesterdays target VP is bearish.
Surely trends can be changed and there are no sometimes no logical factors that aprove the market sentiment
Currently if there are no news, or no news and no bad news, people start panic buying. Sonner or later than will cause massive drop down into the gap directions(15890 and 14500) Also The Daily chart is showing no logical supply demand zones(the supply demand zones are more intuitive and individually) That is the reason
that classical price action thoughts are failing too often.
Interestingly there is one indicator that is showing consistent but slowly accuarte signals: Stochastic. Since over 13 weeks the indicator is bearish, and the current state of the market is confirming it. Therfor we stay short, solong our stochastic indiccators are bearish.
That way we interprete the short term bullish trend ,as bulltrap trend in a Mi-longterm Bearish trend.
For Day traders: Sell the High od the day, but look for reversals, and only if the next possible Resistance of your higher TF cannot break.
For trend traders: Take profit if the Bearish near term Trend is changing, but stay with the Major trend(Bearish) The major trend is above 15680 bullish.
Howlong the next bullish trend lasts is dependend on global economic macros.
To the south there is more space to fill, and also a brea of the gap will create big volume and space to the next possible support at 13200.
The gap has been tested 3 times. The next gap fill whcih is the forth Test, significantly is an aproval how important this level is, and that bears try all their enrgy to break that level.
If the middleeast war involves the U.S.A., the Dollar will rise very high ,also Gold, While the Stock markets will drop fast and very deep.