The NASDAQ 100, on the 1-hour chart, has shown notable declines in recent weeks, as reflected in the provided image. From the recent high near 19,940.0 (labeled "E"), the index has undergone a significant correction, breaking key levels and approaching critical support zones. The price is currently testing the 18,717.8 level (138% Fibonacci according to the "tag pole"), a level that could act as temporary support.
Context of the Declines
Recent declines have been influenced by factors such as macroeconomic uncertainty, including interest rate expectations and the strength of the dollar (USD), in addition to profit-taking following a previous rally. On the 1-hour chart, this corrective movement has brought the index to a confluence between the descending channel (labeled "D") and important Fibonacci levels, such as the 138% at 18,717.8 and the 100% at 18,466.7.
Possibility of a Further Downside
Given the 1-hour timeframe, the NASDAQ could extend its correction before a rebound. The next relevant support zone is located at 18,466.7 (100% Fibonacci), which coincides with a previous liquidity level (labeled "B"). If this support fails, the price could head towards 18,200, where a stronger support zone is observed (labeled "V"). The corrective structure with waves (I-IV) suggests that we are in wave IV, and a downward wave V could complete in this zone before a trend reversal. Rebound Scenario
Once the price reaches these supports, especially 18,466.7 or 18,200, we are likely to see a technical rebound. This could lead the index to retest resistance at 19,000 or even the 19,726.9 level (labeled IV) if the correction is considered complete. Traders may see reversal signals such as divergences in the RSI or a hammer pattern in these areas.
Conclusion: Keep an eye on 18,466.7 as critical support. A break below could target 18,200, but a rebound from these levels seems imminent after the current correction.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.