NASDAQ erased 3 months of gains. Is this a Bear Market?
In early E.U. session today the Nasdaq futures (US100) reached a level that was last seen on April 25, essentially erasing market gains of more than 3 months! By doing so, it hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 13 2023 (almost 17 months).
That is the strongest long-term Support for the index and technically what potentially separates a long-term rally from a long-term correction phase. What matters here is the 1W candle closing. As long as the weekly candles close above the 1W MA50, the long-term bullish trend is maintained.
Last time the index closed a week below the 1W MA50 was on January 17 2022, it extended the bleeding to the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). What confirmed the new Bear Cycle was the failure to close a 1W candle again above the 1W MA50, even though it broke 4 times (January 31 - April 04 2022).
Since Nasdaq's long-term pattern remains a Channel Up anyway (since the October 10 2022 market bottom), if it holds and keeps closing above the 1W MA50, we expect a new +47% Bullish Leg (the previous two have been +48% and +49% respectively), which gives a long-term Target at 25400.
If however the index closes below the 1W MA50, we expect at least a 1W MA100 test, giving a rough Sell Target at 15500 (could be a little higher though). Further selling and a potential new Bear Cycle, will be confirmed only by a failure to recover and close above the 1W MA50 again.
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That is the strongest long-term Support for the index and technically what potentially separates a long-term rally from a long-term correction phase. What matters here is the 1W candle closing. As long as the weekly candles close above the 1W MA50, the long-term bullish trend is maintained.
Last time the index closed a week below the 1W MA50 was on January 17 2022, it extended the bleeding to the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). What confirmed the new Bear Cycle was the failure to close a 1W candle again above the 1W MA50, even though it broke 4 times (January 31 - April 04 2022).
Since Nasdaq's long-term pattern remains a Channel Up anyway (since the October 10 2022 market bottom), if it holds and keeps closing above the 1W MA50, we expect a new +47% Bullish Leg (the previous two have been +48% and +49% respectively), which gives a long-term Target at 25400.
If however the index closes below the 1W MA50, we expect at least a 1W MA100 test, giving a rough Sell Target at 15500 (could be a little higher though). Further selling and a potential new Bear Cycle, will be confirmed only by a failure to recover and close above the 1W MA50 again.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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