NASDAQ 100 (US-100) – Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown
Weekly Timeframe
• Rising Parallel Channel: Price has trended upward within a channel since October 2022. Currently, it’s trading just below the channel’s mid-line but remains above the lower boundary near 19,800–20,000.
• Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The weekly structure is still bullish; no major breaks of structure to the downside. The most recent high around 22,100 stands, and the market could be forming its next higher low.
• Key Support Levels:
• Weekly Order Block @ ~19,000
• Horizontal Supports @ 16,600 & 14,000 (only relevant if a deeper correction unfolds)
• Moving Averages & Ichimoku:
• SMAs are sloping upward with healthy spacing.
• Price remains above the Ichimoku cloud, and the lagging span is above price, signaling a longer-term bullish trend.
• Momentum & Volatility:
• RSI @ ~57 (bullish zone, no overbought signals).
• MACD is above zero but histogram is red, indicating waning momentum, not a reversal.
• ATR > 20 EMA, reflecting heightened volatility.
Weekly Conclusion: While short-term momentum shows signs of fatigue, the broader uptrend remains intact. Key support converges around 19,800–20,000 if a deeper pullback occurs.
Daily Timeframe
• Market Structure & Order Blocks:
• Bullish OBs around 21,100–21,150 (currently under test) and 20,700–20,750 (aligned with the 100 SMA).
• A bearish OB near 21,700; a firm break above would reassert a bullish continuation.
• Ichimoku & SMAs:
• Price is inside the Ichimoku cloud (indecisive), with the lagging span dipping below price, hinting at short-term caution.
• Below the 50 SMA but hovering near the 100 SMA.
• Momentum:
• RSI ~48, under its midline—slightly bearish bias.
• MACD shows a recent bearish crossover, histogram under zero.
• ATR remains elevated, reflecting above-average volatility.
Daily Conclusion: The index is in a holding pattern between 21,700 overhead resistance and critical support around 20,700–21,100. A decisive break of either boundary could set the stage for the next trend move.
Intraday (4H & Below)
• 4H Structure:
• Short-term downtrend confirmed by lower lows, lower highs.
• Price sits below the 200 SMA, with 20 EMA also declining below the 50 SMA.
• Potential upside retracement toward 21,500–21,550 (liquidity zone and bearish OB) before the market decides its next move.
• 2H & 30m Observations:
• Bullish OBs were broken on the way down, reinforcing short-term bearish bias.
• If price reclaims 21,550–21,700, it might signal a bullish shift; otherwise, watch for selling pressure to resume.
Intraday Conclusion: While minor bounces are likely, the path of least resistance remains downward on lower timeframes unless price can reclaim key overhead levels.
Overall Bias & Key Levels
1. Long-Term (Weekly): Bullish structure remains, but momentum has cooled.
2. Mid-Term (Daily): Neutral/indecisive; price needs to either break above 21,700 or below 20,700 for a clearer directional cue.
3. Short-Term (Intraday): Bearish bias unless price convincingly pushes above ~21,550–21,700.
Crucial Support Zone:
• 20,700–21,100 – A break here on a daily closing basis could accelerate downside toward 19,800–20,000.
Potential Scenarios
• Bullish Continuation:
• Price stabilizes above 21,100 and breaks above 21,700.
• Could reignite the weekly uptrend and target new highs above 22,100.
• Bearish Breakdown:
• A firm close below ~20,700 signals deeper correction risk.
• Targets align near the weekly channel support around 19,800–20,000.
Trade & Risk Management Notes
• Short-Term Traders: May consider fading rallies into the 21,500–21,700 zone unless a solid breakout occurs.
• Swing/Position Traders: Watch for potential long entries on a strong bounce from 20,700–21,100 or around 19,800–20,000 if a bigger pullback emerges.
• Volatility: Elevated ATR readings advise caution with position sizing and stop placement.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk appropriately.
Feel free to leave a comment or hit “Like” if you find this breakdown helpful. Good luck and trade safe!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.