Long

Nasdaq100 US100 Bullish 21000 on Radar

Updated

Trend Bullish
Strategy Long

A break above 15930(High 2022) and 16696(High 2021 Will skyrocket Nasdaq100 to 21000(First Profit Target!).

The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.

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The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.

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Fed is close to end of rate hiking cycle, central bank officials say
July 10 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation that is still too high, but the end to its current monetary policy tightening cycle is getting close, several U.S. central bank officials said on Monday.
The Fed has raised interest rates by 5 percentage points since March 2022 to bring down the highest U.S. inflation in four decades. Fed policymakers opted last month to forego a rate increase to give themselves time to assess the still-developing effects of the previous hikes in borrowing costs, even as most also penciled in at least two more increases by the end of 2023.
"We're likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year to really bring inflation" sustainably back to the U.S. central bank's 2% goal, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said during an event at the Brookings Institution, giving voice to the most common view among her rate-setting peers at the Fed.
But, Daly added, while the risks of doing too little are still greater than those of overdoing it on rate hikes, the two sides are getting into better balance as the Fed nears "the last part" of its hiking cycle.
Daly said she fully supported June's policy decision, along with a go-slower approach that allows for more "extreme" data-dependence. "We may end up doing less because we need to do less; we may end up doing just that; we could end up doing more. The data will tell us." Fed policymakers are widely expected to deliver a rate hike at their meeting later this month, a move that would bring the policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range.
What's less clear is whether they will raise rates again at the September meeting, wait until November, or just stay on hold and let inflation ease over time.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he cannot rule out consecutive rate hikes to deal with stubbornly high inflation, which by the central bank's preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, has fallen from a peak of 7% last year to 3.8% in May, still nearly twice the Fed's target.
"We still have a bit of work to do," Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said on Monday at a separate event. "I'll just say for myself, I think we're close." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, speaking at yet another event on Monday, repeated his view that the Fed can be "patient" on rates and allow restrictive policy to bring down inflation without further action by the central bank.
But within the Fed there remains a camp that feels just the opposite.
"In June, I was in the camp that we move up a little bit more and, in assessing where things are today, I'm still in that camp," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said at an event held by the University of California, San Diego.
Still, she said, "we are closer to the end of our tightening phase than the beginning."

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US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 2nd Session

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.

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Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI Data
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.

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US Stocks Pop on Cooling Inflation
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.

Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

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Asian Stocks Mostly Rise on Easing US Inflation

Asian equity markets mostly rose on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street overnight as data showing US producer prices rose less than expected in June bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The US central bank is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points in July, while traders scaled back bets of further rate increases this year. Meanwhile, Singapore’s economy grew 0.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, avoiding a technical recession. The S&P/ASX 200, Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indexes advanced, while the Topix and Shenzhen Component indexes declined.

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The greenback is approaching a make-or-break moment — at least as far as a closely watched technical indicator is concerned.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index has now surrendered more than 61.8% of its gains since May 2021, bringing it to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels popular among chart watchers. They tend to keep a close eye on these indicators to determine whether or not trends will extend or reverse.

What happens next is therefore crucial.

If the index remains below this point over the coming sessions, it would be a strong signal to traders that the currency’s losses are the beginning of a new longer-term downtrend, and not just an aberration.

The latest bout of weakness comes as the market now sees an end to a tightening spree that Federal Reserve officials begun communicating more than two years ago. The prospect is narrowing interest-rate differentials with other major currencies and weighing on the dollar.

This week, it dropped to the weakest level against euro and pound since early 2022. It’s even falling out of favor against the yen — where rates are still negative — with the cross falling to a two-month low.

The bearish signal seen in the chart of the Bloomberg Dollar Index could be soon validated elsewhere too. The ICE Dollar Index — a popular alternative to the BBDXY — stands just 0.6% higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a rally that kicked off in January 2021.

To be sure, options paint a more mixed picture. While long-term bets are supportive of the US currency’s prospects, sentiment over a one-month sentiment has reached its least bullish level since September 2020.

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Week Ahead - July 17th

Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.

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Bond Yields Continue to Fall
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.

European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.

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This trade is stil open and active

relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open

European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.

Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.

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Japan Inflation Rate Below Estimates in JuneJapan Inflation Rate
The annual inflation rate in Japan edged up to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May but less than market forecasts of 3.5%. Core inflation also ticked higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May, matching consensus but staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 15th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in May.
Dow Extends Winning Streak, Tech Drag
The Dow Jones closed 163 points higher on Thursday, marking its ninth-straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since September 2017. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 2%, respectively dragged by tech shares as latest corporate earnings were in focus. Johnson & Johnson was the top performer and soared around 6% on upbeat revenue and earnings, helping propel the Dow. Travelers added 1.8% higher after beating on revenue but falling short of expectations on earnings. IBM shares were nearly 2.1% higher despite its disappointing revenue. Conversely, Netflix lost 8.4% after the company's revenue missed forecasts. Also, Tesla tumbled 9.7%, its biggest daily percentage drop since April 20 after reporting a drop in its second-quarter gross margins to a four-year low and Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts. Blackstone moved 0.7% lower after a 39% drop in earnings and American Airlines sank 6.2% despite raising its earnings outlook for 2023.

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trade is open

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trade is open.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.

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trade is open

Attention: Very important..... There are some people on social media (paid by private companies who try to confuse new traders and beginners... with short sellings,,,,ont listen to them. Plan your trades carefully and trade your plan. If you are unsure, stay away. No trading is also trading :::The goal is protection of the capital...Next Week Earnings Meta,Netfilx AAPL Amazon Microsfot....and PPI goes down,Inflation cooling down folks....Avoid selling:Beartrap.Overall market is bullish, at lower levels we have massive bull pressure...Short sellings will end with 92% probability in masive losses, and bulls will attack big the bears. The beartrap is perfect to take amateurs and retail traders thier moneiy away. So be carefull. Trend is strong bullish and it will go higher

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Range next week

15250-16050

Attention Grey Neutral Zone 15775 area

Buy levels Next week (Chat me private)

Take profiz for Day trading(Chat me privately)....

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Low volatility next week till friday. The pullbacks are profit takings, low trading volume and low volatility of the market makers.

Trading oppurtunities are in USD FX specially USD JPY...Keep monitor them closely.

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Dow Rises for 11th Session

The Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to book an 11th straight session of gains on Monday, with Chevron among the top performers (1.8%) after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%, led by a nearly 1.5% gain for the energy sector, namely shares of Halliburton (2.5%), as oil prices touched a three-month high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq failed to hold early gains and was down about 0.2%, with Amazon (-1.2%) and Tesla (-0.7%) weighing. Investors brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate already priced in, although traders will be looking for any clues on whether the Fed will stop the tightening cycle or believes further increases are still necessary. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with about 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 giving their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, GE, 3M, General Motors, Boeing and Amazon.

US Private Sector Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 52.0 in July 2023, down from 53.2 the previous month, as shown in a preliminary estimate. The latest reading indicated the softest pace of expansion in private sector business activity since February, with service activity growth easing to a five-month low, and manufacturing output levels remaining relatively unchanged. Total new orders rose the least since April, amid reports of constraints on client spending, including higher interest rates, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, marking the weakest level since January. On the price front, input prices increased the least since October 2020, while the rate of output charge inflation picked up as firms sought to pass through higher costs and increased interest rate payments to customers. Finally, business confidence dipped to the lowest level so far this year.

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masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..

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masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..

long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks

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masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..

long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks

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Trade open
Long
VIX DOWN DXY DOWN

The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2
US Futures Extend Gains after Upbeat GDP Growth
US stock futures extended gains on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones jumping about 170 points, S&P 500 gaining 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.6% as investors cheered fresh data and corporate earnings results. The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 1.8% expansion in a sign the US economy remains resilient despite high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms surged about 10% in premarket trading after reporting strong earnings and profit and a better-than-expected forecast for the current period. Comcast jumped over 2.5% after earnings and revenue came higher than anticipated and McDonald's was up about 1.3% after sales topped forecasts. Mastercard was also in the green (0.6%) after delivering strong revenue and earnings growth. Intel, Ford and T-Mobile are due to report today after the closing bell.

US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 5-Month Low

US GDP Grows at a Stronger 2.4%

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trade open looking for 15889 next...See the chart
delta bullish sentiment bullish
bearish moves can be cuased by BOJ comments that will manipulate US Yiels 10years..like it happened to usdyen yesterday...the marketmaker is robust and fighting back...

Watch closely us10y yield and boj. FED losing power...

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US Stocks on Track to End July More than 3% Higher

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Trade open, Inside Day, Correction probably(30%)to 15500 are(Zone)
Trend Bullish
I am still long and use oppurtunities to increase more longs

Trade with the Trend.

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Ok folks its becoming seriouse JOLTS Job Openings 42.6, ISM 46.4 not too bad...tommorrow ADP, then CPI and non farm payrol:We are in an Inside session. Possible pullbacks to the sweeps: 15631; 15554;15522;15400; BELOW 15400 resting sweep stops and extreme buy pressure.. Monitor 1 minute trend, use bullish setups only if reversal confirmed....
In case break up , we go to 16050,16250,16450

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Tradeplan 7.august to 11 Auust
wednesday Bond aution
Thurseday CPI
Trend Bullish
Drop pullback Buy at picadelli point(Picadelli August Buy points oly for my subscribers)
Buy2: pICADELI SUPPORT ZONE AT 15...
Buy 3zone Power buy at picadelu 15...
Profit taking at 1.....

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New Buy Signal
US Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause

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Nasdaq SP500 Dow Reversal
Trend up US 10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Decent Demand Despite Yield Under 4%

DCY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq Bullish
Dow Bullish
RTY Bullish
SP500 Bullish
Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.

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Trend bullish
cpi less than expected
pmi moderate expected
FED rates unchanged
DOUBLE BOTTOM
Stocha bullish again
delta bullish
Vuy at 1505-15250 zone
GAP filled
Bullish gap next to fill: 15850-19050
I bought massively at 15090 more nasdaqs
The same bias is relevant for RTY DO JONES and indices

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Perfect!Gap filling i over. The bear tap wants you to jump into short selling before it rises higher..Avoide bear traps. I baought today more nasdaq at 1477514995 again. The market will go higher . Next week FOMC. Meeting. Fundamentals are bullish.Infalition going don.

Next week, investors will eagerly follow the FOMC minutes release for additional insights into the Fed's plans for the remainder of the year. In the US, retail sales and industrial production will also be in the spotlight. Elsewhere, the upcoming week is poised to bring a flurry of significant economic releases, including China industrial production and retail sales; GDP and inflation for the Eurozone; Japan GDP growth and inflation; Germany economic sentiment; wholesale and consumer prices for India; inflation, unemployment and retail sales for the UK; Canada CPI; Australia unemployment data; and interest rate decisions from Norway, the Philippines and New Zealand.

Michigan Consumer Confidence Falls In August, But Beats Expectations: Declining Inflation, Resilient Job Market Key Factors

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Bullish Facts and Fundamentals:

Michigan Consumer Confidence Falls In August, But Beats Expectations: Declining Inflation, Resilient Job Market Key Factors

US Inflation Metrics Diverge, Complicating Outlook for Cooldown

Strong services costs lift US producer prices; inflation expectations dip

US stocks finished mixed on Friday, as investors were digesting fresh inflation data and assessing the future path of the Federal Reserves. The Dow Jones closed 105 points higher, supported by gains from Chevron (+2%) and Merck & Co (+1.8%). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 edged lower by 0.1% and the Nasdaq lost nearly 0.7% pulled down by a sell-off in shares of AMD (-2.4%), Nvidia (-3.6%) and Micron (-1.6%). Producer prices, which tracks the price wholesalers pay for raw goods, rose 0.3% on the month, raising bets the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer. Yesterday, both headline and core consumer inflation came below forecasts, but remained well above the Fed's 2% target. At the same time, San Francisco President Mary Daly noted that the Fed has more work to do to bring inflation down. On the week, the Dow dipped 0.1%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.7% and the Nasdaq sank 1.8%, a second consecutive week of losses.

The Dow Jones attempted gains while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell by 0.3% and 1%, respectively, after higher-than-expected producer inflation prints increased bets the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer. Producer prices rose 0.3% on the month, led by a rebound in services cost. Yesterday, both headline and core consumer inflation came below forecasts, but remained well above the Fed's 2% target. At the same time, San Francisco President Mary Daly noted that the Fed has more work to do to bring inflation down. Traders now see a nearly 87% chance the central bank will leave interest rates steady next month, below 90% before the PPI release, and the odds for a 25bps hike in November have been rising this week and currently stand at about 29%. The tech and communication services sectors were the worst performers. On the week, the Dow is up 0.5% so far, while the S&P 500 lost 0.4% and the Nasdaq sank 2%, a second consecutive week of losses.

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Bitcoin's Tight Correlation With Nasdaq-SPX Ratio Muddies Safe-Haven Narrative

Bitcoin,rose in tandem with the Nasdaq to S&P 500, or NDX/SPX, ratio, a sign the rally was partly, if not mainly, driven by improved risk appetite stemming from hopes for an early Federal Reserve pivot in favor of liquidity-boosting rate cuts.
The NDX/SPX ratio measures the relative difference in valuation between technology stocks represented in the Nasdaq 100 and a basket of broader industry stocks from the S&P 500. The 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio rose from 0.81 to 0.90, signaling the strongest positive relationship between the two assets since June 2022. At press time, the correlation coefficient stood at 0.89. The positive correlation means on days when the ratio rises, bitcoin is more likely to do the same and vice versa.
Tech stocks tend to be more sensitive to interest-rate expectations than the broader market. Thus a rising ratio is often equated with dovish Fed expectations and improved investor risk appetite that often percolates into other assets like cryptocurrencies, as observed in 2020 and early 2021. A falling ratio represents a sentiment against risky assets.
The correlation between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio was consistently positive during the 2022 bear market and between May 2020 and March 2021, when the cryptocurrency rallied nearly tenfold to $60,000.
If that's not enough, both have been rallying in lockstep since early January. While bitcoin has risen nearly 70% this year, the ratio is up 11.26%.

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Bitcoin’s Correlation With S&P 500, Nasdaq Hits Highest Level Since July 2020
The correlation between Bitcoin and two major equity indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, surged to an 18-month high, according to new research.

Historically, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively low correlation to traditional asset classes, including equity indices and commodities like gold.

However, in recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency's correlation to two major indices—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—has been on the rise.
However, there are a few factors that can help explain why Bitcoin's correlation might have been positive with these markets during certain periods:

Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite: Bitcoin, as a relatively new and highly volatile asset, can be influenced by similar market sentiment and risk appetite as traditional markets. When investors are optimistic about the economy and financial markets, they may be more willing to invest in riskier assets like Bitcoin, leading to a positive correlation.

Institutional Involvement: The increasing involvement of institutional investors in both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency space can lead to correlated price movements. If large institutional players start allocating funds to both stocks and Bitcoin, it can create a positive correlation as these players rebalance their portfolios.

Global Economic Factors: Major global economic events, such as monetary policy decisions by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators, can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. When these events affect the broader economy, they may impact both stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Liquidity and Speculation: During times of high liquidity in the markets, where investors are looking for speculative opportunities, Bitcoin can become part of that speculation. When liquidity is ample, correlations between various assets can increase.

Media and Information: News and media coverage can influence investor behavior across different markets. If there is significant coverage or attention on both traditional markets and Bitcoin simultaneously, it can lead to coordinated moves.
Certainly, here are a few additional points to consider regarding the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, specifically the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the technology sector:

Safe-Haven Asset Perception: While Bitcoin is often referred to as "digital gold" and considered a store of value by some investors, it may exhibit positive correlation with traditional markets during periods of economic uncertainty or market turmoil. If investors perceive Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset similar to gold, it could see increased demand when traditional markets are under stress.

Macro Trends and Tech Influence: The technology sector, particularly in the NASDAQ, has been a significant driver of economic growth and innovation. If Bitcoin is seen as a part of this technological innovation and if both the technology sector and Bitcoin are influenced by similar macro trends (e.g., advancements in blockchain technology, digitalization, fintech), this could lead to positive correlation.

Market Evolution: The cryptocurrency market has been evolving, with more mature market structures, increased adoption, and growing integration with traditional finance. This could lead to tighter correlations as market participants become more sophisticated and interconnected, using similar strategies and reacting to common macroeconomic factors.

Global Liquidity: The increasing prevalence of global liquidity injections by central banks can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. If central banks take actions that impact liquidity in the financial system, it can lead to coordinated movements in various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Investor Behavior: Speculative behavior and investor sentiment can drive correlations. If there's a speculative "bubble" mentality, where investors are seeking quick gains across different assets, this can lead to correlated movements as capital flows into multiple markets simultaneously.

Note

China 10Y Bond Yield Hits 51-week Low

Note

DXY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq,Dow,RTY AND Tech bullish
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data
Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Decline at all Horizons, Expectations about Household Financial Situation Improve
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations declined at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care, and rent declined to their lowest levels since at least early 2021. Labor market expectations strengthened, while households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved.
The main findings from the July 2023 Survey are:

Inflation

Median inflation expectations declined across all three horizons, falling from 3.8% to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and from 3.0% to 2.9% at both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.The decline at the one-year-ahead horizon was broad based across demographic groups and the July reading is the lowest since April 2021. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all three horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one-year-ahead horizon and increased slightly at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July, remaining well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%.
Median year-ahead expected price changes declined for all commodities: by 0.2 percentage point for gas (to 4.5%), 0.1 percentage point for food (to 5.2%), 0.9 percentage point for medical care (to 8.4%), 0.3 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.0%), and 0.4 percentage point for rent (to 9.0%). The current readings for food, medical care, and rent are the lowest since September 2020, November 2020, and January 2021, respectively.
Labor Market

Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.7%, the lowest reading since April 2022.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 11.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage point, to 17.0%, its lowest reading since March 2021. The decrease in the average quit probability was broad based across demographic groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased from 55.3% in June to 55.8% in July.
Household Finance

Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.2% in July and remains below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.6%.
Median household spending growth expectations increased from 5.2% in June to 5.4% in July, but remains well below its 12-month trailing average of 6.1%.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations about credit access a year from now were largely unchanged, with a slight deterioration in current perceptions and a slight improvement in year-ahead expectations.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 11.7% in July.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased from 10.0% in June to 9.7% in July.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.9%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in July with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Similarly, year-ahead expectations improved with fewer respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now and more respondents expecting to be better off. The share expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.8 percentage points to 37.1%.

Bitcoin started its bullish trend continuation based on buying pressure of the tech industry.

Note

CURRENCYCOM:US100 Nasdaq down target to 14500
Gap Fill

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NQ nEXT BUY POSITION below 14475 The market will turn if not on tuesday,but on ednesday. Currently They wanna fil Gap down around 14200-14575, before the market rises higher to 15850. If it doesnt happen this week, next monday we will have explosive GAP UP and bullish move for the next 3 weeks

Note

++++Be careful Attention! VERY IMPORTANT+++++

10Y Bonds US are testing 15 years Highest High. On day and weekly the trend is bullish. If it breaks that high and closes above 4,5 then the bonds US10Y will rise to 4,70%: At that level USDJPY; NASDAQ,RTY SP500, USD will break own nearly to cash and it will cause a sudden death or Sudden Crsh. So watch closely that maket,
++++iT IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT+++ Please dont trade blindly. And watch the markets and their intermarket relations.

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nasdaq beaish on lower tf, most important day wednesday and friay, be careful of the bull traps,false bulls until we reach the low of the gap below 14500.Wait for onfirmation.. The gap is in the middle of 2022 bearish move...So have patience until getting signals on all f.

Intermarket confirmation:Today we have seen nasdaq was rising but RTY was short. Ususlly RTY follows NQ. also we had falling dxy and falling oil prices. The reason is strong Bods 10y . Ususally Oil is benefitting of falling dxy, That is confirmaing that traders are trying to compensate their losses in NQ, that confirms the fast move of NQ Up and down. On wednesafternoon we will test the markets reaction. Above 15150 is the first buy signal, If the market rises higher, and we dont get the down gap now, in 2-3 weeks NQ will crash again at 15850 to 13200, So it will be better to fil the downside gap right now. So have patience and protect your capital Sometimes no trading is also trading.

Note

US existing home sales slide again, but prices up from a year earlier

Dont Buy before the market stabilizes at 14000-14400... Storm is coming
Bonds up
DXY UP
CHINA!
Powell speaking till Sunday
The Fed May Need To Go To 6%
Fed Credibility at Risk If Inflation Target Changes, Barkin Says
banks dragged after S&P Global Ratings joined Moody’s Investors Service and downgraded some US banks due to a challenging economic environment.
Nvidia's stock initially rose to a record high but later fell in anticipation of its earnings report due on Wednesday.

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As I warned days before: Wait for Buy Signals at around 14200-14450Zone AND Wait till Monday open.It´s better we go down now, cuz if we don´t fill the Gap this week, in 3-4 weeks(september) The market will crash from 16000 to this level again.
If we fill this gap till tommorrow close bell, then there is nothing what can stop Nasdaq and other Inidces on their way upsides....Wait to fill the gap completely. If it breaks the gap down, then it will ontinue to reach 1385-13650-13200...and then revere. So Use your ability to practice patience. If you re not patient enough, then.... ask Dalai Lama how to practice patience

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Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggests interest rate hikes are at an end

Note

US yields rise as data suggests higher rates for longer
The data highlights the quandary the market faces a day before Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the U.S. central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming

The two-year note's US2YT=RR yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose 6.7 basis points to 5.019% as it see-sawed either side of the key 5% threshold.

Note

Gap filled at 14583. Powell Jackson Hole: Although inflation has moved down from its peak, a welcome development, it remains too high.... we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.

Buy at 14880 Levels.. Targets up are 15150.Above that zone buying pressure to 15350(Coection Zone)..If breaking 15350 we go to 15850 Gap Up Fill...

Note

Next week in case we break the folloing level, NQ may go to:
Keep Monitor closely these levels ,VERY VERY IMPORTANT 14609,14499, Balue Retrace 14280 and 14 256

The bullish target will be 14982 and 15132, First Target

WE ATE IN A PRETTY NASTY DOWN TREND ON 5 minute TF, So Opening on Monday an where the Price tends to go is pretty important for the reet of the week!

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Sadly Nasdaq has not fill the Gap down completly, But targeting 15850 UPSIDE GAP NOW: Today disappointing US dAT PUTTING bONDS AND dxy sell off, Below 15303 NQ will go bak to 15000 area, an if breaking that zone, hopefully going down to 14400. As long as Lower TF Trend is bullish, go in sync with Daily major trend, but be prepared to stong pullback. I hoped to reache the gap down in Auust, but it doesn´t seem so. In 2-3 Weeks we may see That STRONG pullback from the highs15703-15900 back to 14500.In that case NQ will stay longer at that level and maybe go also someway deeper ....September is the dirtiest trading month ever, Last year bloody low volatility month ever. If it s repeating this year the same, then we will see the corretion with higher probability. It is essential to montor trades, if NQ doesnt make Hiher highs than 15950 which will create a mis-successed Double TOP PATTERN, and breaking below 14500 will create a sell off pattern. This will happen if the 2 conditions above will occure.

Note

++++++IMPORTANT NASDAQ UPDATES++++++

Most important Day:Wednesdday Data and news

We have now 2 open Gaps upside and downside. Next week ontract rollover.It means if we dont fill one of these 2 haps this week, ,next week we will have 3 open Gaps, and tha means exzreme volatility that will affect also other markets like FX, Cypto.

Target 1 bullish: i ope you have followed my recommandations to buy nasdaq at 14600 zone. If not, then do nothing and stay out, Uf yes,then be aware of close your poitions if we lose 15416....This is our trailing top, now in Profit,that is correlating with VAL Monthly. If Nasaq loses 15416 it will drop to 14500 and then 13850..If it hols and retraces bak we go upsides to 15660,15712,15752,15660,15812,15850,15950, and maybe 16050,,,,There we will have lower volume and more selling pressure, if bonds dont retrae back. If DXY and bonds jump and on the same time hawkish FED news, nasaq and all other indices will drop short, quickly, suddenly and sharply. Dont worry:It will happen so fast, you wont have time to sctatch your hairs. So like a mini crash, but short and quickly. On 13800 area it will happen the opposite:This time the Bulls will agreively do the same with you. So be aware. If you are unsure, take profits, or maybe small losses, and stay out. It is a real rumble, better than mortal combat 5

Note

EUROPE opening lower after Asian open.......Today important data.... 5 Senarios....4 Bwaeish 1 Bullish..... Probability to go own to 14500 increase from 68% now to 89%(Traders Sentiment).
If nq goes up to 15950 first then we have proper goo situation to short the market till the beginning of October

Note

short to fill 14500 zone in september

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Below15416 SHort Target 15280,15150,15050,14500

Note

Gap 14500 still unfilled
It seems we direct Gap up 15850-155950 first. current state bullish, But be aware of the next week

DaveBrascoFX

youtube.com/@DavyBrasco-Official-Channel/videos

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