Good morning, everyone, and happy weekend!
Today, we’re conducting a comprehensive top-down analysis of the US100 to prepare you for the upcoming trading week. Let’s break down the key observations and actionable insights across the weekly, daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour timeframes.
Weekly Chart Analysis
• Trend Structure: The US100 remains in a strong uptrend, evident from the upward-sloping EMAs and the green price channel established since October 30, 2023. While a tighter channel has been broken, the broader channel remains intact, signaling sustained bullish momentum.
• Volume Profile: The weekly POC and HVN are clustered near 14,500, significantly below current prices. This indicates strong historical interest at lower levels, serving as key support if prices retrace.
• Bollinger Bands: Price resides in the upper band, signifying strength. The retracement initiated on December 16 bounced off the 20 SMA with weak rejections, further reinforcing bullish momentum.
• Fibonacci Levels: The current retracement has respected the 0.382 level, a hallmark of shallow corrections in strong uptrends. The last higher high, formed on December 16, rejected between the 1.0 and 1.618 extension zones.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Price remains well above the cloud, which is notably thick, suggesting strong underlying support at the 19,000 level.
• Order Blocks: Significant weekly order blocks lie at 14,300, 17,001, and 18,500. The 18,500 block may provide robust support in case of a pullback.
Daily Chart Analysis
• Trend and Structure: After a breakout from an ascending wedge on December 18, bias temporarily turned bearish. However, recent price action suggests a shift back to bullish sentiment. A strong bounce off the 20,700 daily order block aligns with the 100 EMA, followed by a clean close above the 50 and 20 EMAs. This reaffirms bullish momentum.
• Volume Profile: High volume is concentrated near 21,000, which aligns with the recent consolidation zone. The breakout above this level transforms it into strong support for future pullbacks.
• Bollinger Bands: Price has entered the upper band cleanly, signaling renewed strength. The 20 SMA serves as dynamic support.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Price rejected off the top of the cloud during the latest upswing, confirming bullish momentum.
• EMA Analysis: While the 13 EMA remains below the 48 SMA, a breakout above the latter will solidify bullish bias. This could lead to a retest of the previous trendline near 21,854 before a potential pullback.
• Order Blocks: Daily order blocks at 20,800 and 20,600 will serve as key support zones. A larger block at 20,000–19,800 provides deeper support if volatility increases.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
• Structure: The recent break of a descending parallel channel indicates a bullish reversal. While the lower high structure persists, the strong bounce off the 20,800 level signals underlying strength.
• Volume Profile: The POC at 21,100 coincides with an hourly order block, acting as a significant liquidity zone.
• Bollinger Bands: Price has extended into the upper band, suggesting strength but hinting at a potential consolidation or pullback.
• Ichimoku Cloud: A clean break above the lower cloud reinforces bullish momentum, with support expected at the cloud top if prices retrace.
• Momentum Indicators: The 4-hour RSI at 65 and a strengthening ADX (24.64) confirm bullish momentum, while MACD shows increasing positive momentum.
1-Hour Chart Analysis
• Momentum and Trendline Breaks: RSI at 54.78 and a break of a descending trendline suggest the end of recent bearish consolidation. However, MACD remains below zero, indicating that bullish momentum is still developing.
• Short-Term Targets: The next key resistance is at 21,700, aligned with the 100% Fibonacci extension. A move to this level may precede a pullback to gather liquidity at support zones around 21,100 or 20,800.
Key Observations and Outlook
1. Bias: Bullish, supported by higher timeframes and momentum indicators.
2. Support Levels: 20,800, 20,600, and 20,000.
3. Resistance Levels: 21,700 and 23,435 (weekly channel high).
4. Potential Strategy: Await pullbacks to support levels (e.g., 21,100 or 20,800) for long entries, confirming momentum with indicators like RSI, MACD, and Ichimoku.
Proprietary Indicators
My custom-developed tools, including weekly and daily buy/sell region indicators, have signaled the first green buy region since December 16. This adds confidence to our bullish outlook. For further insights and entries, follow along as I share actionable updates.
Let me know your thoughts, and feel free to drop any questions below. Stay disciplined and trade wisely!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.