US 10 yr yields are very likely to test 2
Updated
This has meaningful implications on equity markets and tech. It looks increasingly likely that blow out earnings will mark near term highs for FAANG.
As a quick reminder, higher yields increase the discount factor suggesting future earnings, which are important for high growth tech, are worth less today.
That argues for a lower multiple and points to relative under performance.
Powell looser for longer and Biden sanguine on near term growth, enabled by more fiscal stimulus, makes the risk of runaway inflation more pronounced and the bond market is likely to price that in, now.
I am looking for a test of 2% for the 10 year and failing momentum for FAANG, post earnings.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
As a quick reminder, higher yields increase the discount factor suggesting future earnings, which are important for high growth tech, are worth less today.
That argues for a lower multiple and points to relative under performance.
Powell looser for longer and Biden sanguine on near term growth, enabled by more fiscal stimulus, makes the risk of runaway inflation more pronounced and the bond market is likely to price that in, now.
I am looking for a test of 2% for the 10 year and failing momentum for FAANG, post earnings.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
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The problem with consolidation, especially with one driven by a misleading narrative, is that it tends to explode in the direction of the prevailing trend. While central banks continue the "Inflation will only be transitory" line, the reality is every one is already feeling the pinch. Please show me one example of inflation this pervasive (wages - MacDonalds, commodities - everything, goods - CPI, assets - equities, bitcoin, housing) ever being transitory.Watch this wedge - I really can not think of anything more important at the moment.
A break to the upside could; cap the run in Gold, further increase Bitcoin volatility, reignite the growth to value rotation in equities.
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Holding in there:
I am not a registered investment advisor. Nothing I say, or share, constitutes investment advice. Take responsibility for your risk and do your own research.
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