Prediction of next financial downturn
Updated
According to FedWatch Tool cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020.
It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue!
The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
While the horizontal line (red/green) indicate 250 days moving average; Every time US10Y-US02Y crossed the 250d average the recession occurred but was not announced until a few months later!
It means interest cuts will follow during Presidential elections in the US and recession will not be announced until 2021!!!
It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue!
The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
While the horizontal line (red/green) indicate 250 days moving average; Every time US10Y-US02Y crossed the 250d average the recession occurred but was not announced until a few months later!
It means interest cuts will follow during Presidential elections in the US and recession will not be announced until 2021!!!
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Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread, Official NY FED websitenewyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf
The Most Scary and Important Chart You NEED to See Right Now:
youtu.be/Bs1_8r4oS_E
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Bond market anticipating future Fed rate cutsyoutube.com/watch?v=7gYwGq47hDs
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The Entire Treasury Yield Curve Is 'Inverted'zerohedge.com/markets/entire-treasury-yield-curve-inverted
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Here we go again: Bank of America calls for 50 basis point cut at Fed's March meetingyoutube.com/watch?v=Ud1ZaiFiCWU
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Two weeks before Official FOMC meeting, Fed cuts rates by half a percentage point to combat Coronavirus slowdown - that escalated very quickly!cnbc.com/2020/03/03/fed-cuts-rates-by-half-a-percentage-point-to-combat-coronavirus-slowdown.html
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Market Massacre: Oil Crashes 30%, Dow Down 1,000, VIX Explodes As Spoos Craterzerohedge.com/markets/market-massacre-oil-crashes-30-dow-down-1000-points-vix-explodes-es-craters
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Stocks Suffer Worst Week Since Lehman Despite Biggest Fed Bailout Everzerohedge.com/markets/stocks-suffer-worst-week-lehman-despite-biggest-fed-bailout-ever
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Very nice video, please watch: Will the Coronavirus TRIGGER a Global Recession?youtube.com/watch?v=uc38v9yh-pk
These Updating Charts Show How Many People Are Losing Their Jobs Amid The Coronavirus Pandemic
buzzfeednews.com/article/lamvo/coronavirus-update-charts-unemployment-claims-laid-off-jobs
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The US will have negative interest rates in 2020/21, FED just needs another wave of nCov19 as an excuse!Comment
Bloomberg urges users to get set for negative US ratesft.com/content/4542185a-0017-4f2f-b490-d4e76360a470
The stock market didn't plunge due to gigantic stimulus i.e. money-printing!
Please check out this very nice visualisation of $10+ Trillion 2020 Economic Stimulus in Cash
youtube.com/watch?v=YPHEM4gEqvg
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'Recovery' Hopes Fade As US Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Plunge In Junezerohedge.com/markets/recovery-hopes-fade-us-wholesale-inventories-unexpectedly-plunge-june
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Gold And Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse?zerohedge.com/markets/gold-and-crypto-how-charts-look-monetary-collapse
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The most predictable global financial crisisaei.org/op-eds/the-most-predictable-global-financial-crisis/
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JPM: "Bond Yields Are Likely To Move Higher From Here" But The Real Question Is "What's Behind The Move"zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-bond-yields-are-likely-move-higher-here-real-question-whats-behind-move
You've got to Pump it up,
Don't you know Pump it up!!
Danzel - Pump It Up
youtube.com/watch?v=0HtyF0jux2Q
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We are already in a crisis that nobody wants to announce:fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Obviously healthcare crisis related to nCov19 is more important :-/
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Plenty of various indicatorsen.macromicro.me/collections/9/us-market-relative/91/interest-rate-sp500
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"Treasury Secretary Yellen says rates may have to rise somewhat to keep economy from overheating" - that will be the last nail to the coffin and will inevitably cause the yield curve to move higher and flip the market.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html
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youtube.com/watch?v=t3ygJbJjocI&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision #CNBCTV"Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel"
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A Major BEARISH Signal Not Seen for 14 Years (Market and Crypto Analysis)youtube.com/watch?v=x5CmpLGafno&ab_channel=AlessioRastani
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Alarm bells over a possible recession from raising interest rates too quickly youtube.com/watch?v=DB_KriDIdOA
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