Prediction of next financial downturn
Updated
According to FedWatch Tool cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020.
It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue!
The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
While the horizontal line (red/green) indicate 250 days moving average; Every time US10Y-US02Y crossed the 250d average the recession occurred but was not announced until a few months later!
It means interest cuts will follow during Presidential elections in the US and recession will not be announced until 2021!!!
It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue!
The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
While the horizontal line (red/green) indicate 250 days moving average; Every time US10Y-US02Y crossed the 250d average the recession occurred but was not announced until a few months later!
It means interest cuts will follow during Presidential elections in the US and recession will not be announced until 2021!!!
Note
Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread, Official NY FED websitenewyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf
The Most Scary and Important Chart You NEED to See Right Now:
youtu.be/Bs1_8r4oS_E
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Bond market anticipating future Fed rate cutsyoutube.com/watch?v=7gYwGq47hDs
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The Entire Treasury Yield Curve Is 'Inverted'zerohedge.com/markets/entire-treasury-yield-curve-inverted
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Here we go again: Bank of America calls for 50 basis point cut at Fed's March meetingyoutube.com/watch?v=Ud1ZaiFiCWU
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Two weeks before Official FOMC meeting, Fed cuts rates by half a percentage point to combat Coronavirus slowdown - that escalated very quickly!cnbc.com/2020/03/03/fed-cuts-rates-by-half-a-percentage-point-to-combat-coronavirus-slowdown.html
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Market Massacre: Oil Crashes 30%, Dow Down 1,000, VIX Explodes As Spoos Craterzerohedge.com/markets/market-massacre-oil-crashes-30-dow-down-1000-points-vix-explodes-es-craters
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Stocks Suffer Worst Week Since Lehman Despite Biggest Fed Bailout Everzerohedge.com/markets/stocks-suffer-worst-week-lehman-despite-biggest-fed-bailout-ever
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Very nice video, please watch: Will the Coronavirus TRIGGER a Global Recession?youtube.com/watch?v=uc38v9yh-pk
These Updating Charts Show How Many People Are Losing Their Jobs Amid The Coronavirus Pandemic
buzzfeednews.com/article/lamvo/coronavirus-update-charts-unemployment-claims-laid-off-jobs
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The US will have negative interest rates in 2020/21, FED just needs another wave of nCov19 as an excuse!Note
Bloomberg urges users to get set for negative US ratesft.com/content/4542185a-0017-4f2f-b490-d4e76360a470
The stock market didn't plunge due to gigantic stimulus i.e. money-printing!
Please check out this very nice visualisation of $10+ Trillion 2020 Economic Stimulus in Cash
youtube.com/watch?v=YPHEM4gEqvg
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'Recovery' Hopes Fade As US Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Plunge In Junezerohedge.com/markets/recovery-hopes-fade-us-wholesale-inventories-unexpectedly-plunge-june
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Gold And Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse?zerohedge.com/markets/gold-and-crypto-how-charts-look-monetary-collapse
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The most predictable global financial crisisaei.org/op-eds/the-most-predictable-global-financial-crisis/
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JPM: "Bond Yields Are Likely To Move Higher From Here" But The Real Question Is "What's Behind The Move"zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-bond-yields-are-likely-move-higher-here-real-question-whats-behind-move
You've got to Pump it up,
Don't you know Pump it up!!
Danzel - Pump It Up
youtube.com/watch?v=0HtyF0jux2Q
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We are already in a crisis that nobody wants to announce:fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Obviously healthcare crisis related to nCov19 is more important :-/
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Plenty of various indicatorsen.macromicro.me/collections/9/us-market-relative/91/interest-rate-sp500
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"Treasury Secretary Yellen says rates may have to rise somewhat to keep economy from overheating" - that will be the last nail to the coffin and will inevitably cause the yield curve to move higher and flip the market.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html
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youtube.com/watch?v=t3ygJbJjocI&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision #CNBCTV"Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel"
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A Major BEARISH Signal Not Seen for 14 Years (Market and Crypto Analysis)youtube.com/watch?v=x5CmpLGafno&ab_channel=AlessioRastani
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Alarm bells over a possible recession from raising interest rates too quickly youtube.com/watch?v=DB_KriDIdOA
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