The 10-year US Treasury Yield, once the benchmark of global confidence, is now exhibiting signs of a macro top. Since its 2020 low of 0.333%, it surged to 5.00% in October 2023, marking the end of the 40-year bond bull market. It now trades around 4.20%—a key Fibonacci confluence zone and the March 2025 breakout retest area.
A breakdown below 3.95%–3.82% could trigger a cascade to:
3.30%
3.16%
2.85% and 2.63%
This would imply disinflation, economic contraction, or systemic bond market stress.
The consequence? Institutional investors are diversifying out of bonds—once considered the safest asset class—and looking for alternative long-duration stores of value.
Gold has always been the traditional hedge. But now, with Bitcoin's price stabilizing and institutional credibility growing, it's being seriously considered as a digital parallel to gold.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.