100 Years of 100% Probability
This Chart shows the normalized Bollinger Band Width for the US Ten Year Treasury Bond Yield.
Basis = 10 Year SMA
Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands = 3.0 Standard Deviations from Basis
Normalized BB Width = (Upper - Lower) / Basis
For the last century, 100% of the time that US Ten Year Yields extended 3 Standard Deviations above their 10 Year SMA while their normalized Bollinger Band width reached this 100 year long trend, rates experienced a sharp and meaningful correction.
*** During World War II, width reached the trend line but rates remained at the 10 year average and did not extend 3 Standard Deviations above it.
Basis = 10 Year SMA
Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands = 3.0 Standard Deviations from Basis
Normalized BB Width = (Upper - Lower) / Basis
For the last century, 100% of the time that US Ten Year Yields extended 3 Standard Deviations above their 10 Year SMA while their normalized Bollinger Band width reached this 100 year long trend, rates experienced a sharp and meaningful correction.
*** During World War II, width reached the trend line but rates remained at the 10 year average and did not extend 3 Standard Deviations above it.
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