Do you really need to ask if interest rates have topped out?
Head & Shoulders patterns at tops and bottoms are generally spot on...this Inverse H&S pattern occurred at a bottom, clearly broke out from the neckline and just wants 5%...at a minimum.
"Don't fight the Fed"
The Fed is not going to pivot to the downside anytime soon...why would they? What makes anyone think this is on the horizon?
Here are the 3 things Powell stated would need to happen for a pause (not a pivot ) at Jackson Hole:
1. Lower Growth
2. Softening Labor Market
3. Inflation on pace to 2%.
2022 Q2 vs. Q3 GDP came in positive and much stronger than expected, Jobs reports remain hot and inflation isn't anywhere near 2%. So at this point, we can't even check off any boxes for a possible pause in rate hikes let alone a pivot . In addition, Powell hasn't really wavered in his statements since Covid, he's been pretty straightforward, so why would he all of a sudden change his behavior?