Bank of America published a chart a few days ago showing the 2s10s yield curve and recessions. The main point was that the curve's steeping (moving out of inversion territory) was typically when a recession would begin. This point was well-illustrated on the chart, which dated back to 1960s and showed all the major recessions and inversions together. All the recessions were shaded areas, and showed the yield curve steepening dramatically at the start (or during) the recessions going back to 1970
Another well-researched point made by fund managers and other financial experts recently is that bear markets do not end *before* the recession begins. So if there is a recession (and the yield curves above strongly suggest there will be), then the bear market will not end, based on historical example, before the recession has begun.